Beijing:Japanese embassy
Bond Wars: Chinese Advisor Calls For Japanese Bond Dump.(ZH).By Tyler Durden.Earlier today we casually
wondered whether the US stands to lose more by supporting China or Japan in
their escalating diplomatic spat, considering the threat of a US Treasury sell
off is certainly not negligible, a dilemma complicated by the fact that as
today’s TIC data indicated both nations own almost the same amount of US paper,
just over $1.1 trillion. In a stunning turn of events, it appears that China has
taken our thought experiment a step further and as the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans
Prichard reports, based on a recommendation by Jin Baisong from the Chinese
Academy of International Trade (a branch of the commerce ministry) China
is actively considering “using its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn
(£141bn) of bonds to “impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner”
and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head.” I.e., dump
Japan’s bonds en masse.
Should this stunning recommendation be enacted, not only would it be the
first time in world history that insurmountable credit is used as a weapon of
retaliation, it would mark a clear phase transition in the evolution of modern
warfare: from outright military incursions, to FX wars, to trade wars,
culminating with “bond wars” which could in the span of minutes cripple the
entire Japanese fiscal house of cards still standing solely due to the myth that
unserviceable debt can be pushed off into perpetuity (as previously discussed here).
Not needing further explanation is the reality that should China commence a
wholesale Japanese bond dump, it may well lead to that long anticipated Japanese
bond market collapse, as creditor after creditor proceeds to sell into a market
in which the BOJ is the buyer of only resort in the best case, and into a
bidless market in the worst.
The immediate outcome would be soaring inflation as the BOJ is forced to
monetize debt for dear life, buying up first hundreds of billions, then
trillions in the secondary market to avoid a complete rout, matched by trillions
of reserves created out of thin air which may or may not be halted by the
Japanese deflationary gate, and which most certainly could waterfall into the
economy especially if Japanese citizens take this as an all clear signal that
the Japanese economy is about to be crippled in all out economic warfare with
the most dangerous such opponent, and one which just defected from the
“global insolvent creditor” game of Mutual Assured Destruction. One thing here is certain: Japan picked on the wrong country when two
weeks ago it "purchased" the disputed Senkaku Islands. If it thought
that China would just forgive and forget with a wink, it was dead wrong.
It now has several two options: undo all that has happened in the past
fortnight, in the process suffering tremendous diplomatic humiliation, leaving
Senkaku in the "no man's land" where they belong, or push on, and suffer the
consequences. And the consequences for the country represented by the question
market in the chart below, would be tragically severe, as would they for the
entire "developed", insolvent and daisy-chained world.Hmmm......."Yu So Phukt".Read the full story here.
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