Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV.

Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV.HT: Croft.

Via The Lancet: Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV. Excerpt:

Breban and colleagues4 apply a specialised statistical method to estimate the R₀ of MERS-CoV.11 By carefully constructing different scenarios for who infected whom in recent MERS-CoV clusters, the investigators compute R₀ under best-case and worst-case scenarios for MERS-CoV transmission trees. 

In the worst-case scenario, R₀ is only 0·69 (95% CI 0·50—0·92). Despite the small number of confirmed cases so far, the upper 95% CI on the R₀ is less than 1, meaning that MERS-CoV is unlikely to cause a pandemic, although a 99·7% CI might also have been useful to estimate pandemic risk, in addition to the standard 95% interval. For comparison, the investigators estimate that R₀ was 0·80 (95% CI 0·54—1·13) for prepandemic SARS-CoV in southeast Asia (2002—03). 

Breban and colleagues4 also provide calculations that enable the R₀ estimates to be updated as more information about new MERS-CoV cases is reported. If the next index patient infects eight or more individuals, the investigators estimate that there is a 5% chance that R₀ is actually above 1, under the worst-case scenario. 

Hmmm.......If the Saudis are releasing the 'real' numbers!