Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV.

Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV.HT: Croft.

Via The Lancet: Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV. Excerpt:

Breban and colleagues4 apply a specialised statistical method to estimate the R₀ of MERS-CoV.11 By carefully constructing different scenarios for who infected whom in recent MERS-CoV clusters, the investigators compute R₀ under best-case and worst-case scenarios for MERS-CoV transmission trees. 

In the worst-case scenario, R₀ is only 0·69 (95% CI 0·50—0·92). Despite the small number of confirmed cases so far, the upper 95% CI on the R₀ is less than 1, meaning that MERS-CoV is unlikely to cause a pandemic, although a 99·7% CI might also have been useful to estimate pandemic risk, in addition to the standard 95% interval. For comparison, the investigators estimate that R₀ was 0·80 (95% CI 0·54—1·13) for prepandemic SARS-CoV in southeast Asia (2002—03). 

Breban and colleagues4 also provide calculations that enable the R₀ estimates to be updated as more information about new MERS-CoV cases is reported. If the next index patient infects eight or more individuals, the investigators estimate that there is a 5% chance that R₀ is actually above 1, under the worst-case scenario. 

Hmmm.......If the Saudis are releasing the 'real' numbers! 

Saudi Arabia: 2 new MERS cases, 1 death in Riyadh.

T. nudiventris bats - aka 'Tomb Bat'.

Saudi Arabia: 2 new MERS cases, 1 death in Riyadh.HT: Croft.

Via the Saudi Ministry of Health: Two New Cases of Novel Coronavirus Recorded and another Case Passed Away in Riyadh.

Within the framework of the epidemiological surveillance of the novel Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), the Ministry of Health (MOH) has announced that two confirmed cases of this virus have been recorded in Riyadh. The first infected case is a 50-year-old female citizen with cancer and other chronic diseases. She is currently at the ICU receiving the proper treatment.   

As for second case, he is a 70-year-old resident with several chronic diseases. He is currently at the ICU receiving the proper treatment.   

Moreover, the Ministry of Health has announced the death of a 54 year-old citizen with chronic diseases; who had been previously announced to be infected with this virus- May Allah have mercy upon him.

Related:  Two news MERS-CoV cases and the death of an existing case, all from Riyadh

A very piecemeal way of disclosing public health information. I can't imagine this gives many prospective visitors a good sense of the situation being under control and carefully managed.

  Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus in Bats, Saudi Arabia

MERS - The 'Curse' of the Tomb Bat - virus isolated from bat; other animal may be involved in spread.

Helen Branswell: MERS virus isolated from bat; other animal may be involved in spread.HT: Crofts.

Via the Brandon Sun, Helen Branswell of The Canadian Press is quick to report on the Memish paper: MERS virus isolated from bat; other animal may be involved in spread. Excerpt:

Scientists from Saudi Arabia and the United States have found the MERS coronavirus in a bat in Saudi Arabia. 

The scientists are reporting the finding in a paper published online today. 

While bats have been suspected to be the reservoir of the new virus, this is the first time a match for the human virus has been found in an animal. 

Lead author Dr. Ziad Memish, the Saudi deputy minister of health, says bats have always been suspected to be the original source of the virus, but there are probably other players of the chain of transmission that have yet to be discovered. 

"There must be something in the middle," Memish said during a talk on MERS in Washington, D.C., that was organized and webcast by the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center's Center for Health Security. 

"Is it food? Is it (an) other animal reservoir? That's something to be determined." 

Other scientists recently reported finding antibodies to the MERS virus in camels in Oman and in the Canary Islands, off North Africa. While that is a clue that the animals are susceptible to the virus, it's not yet known if they play a role in spreading the virus to people. 

The virus discovered in the bat is an identical match to the human virus, says the new paper, published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases. The virus was found in a bat of the Taphozous perforatus species.

Follow the link and you'll learn that this is better known as the Egyptian Tomb Bat, and is an endangered species.Hmmm......The Curse of the Tomb Bat'?

Related: 

Saudi Arabia: 2 new MERS cases in Riyadh

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus in Bats, Saudi Arabia