Sunday, September 15, 2013

MERS: Will it start the next global pandemic?


MERS: Will it start the next global pandemic? HT: Croft.

I've been running across this story in The Observer all day. It's by Dr. Justin Lessler, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Schoool of Public Health: Mers - will it start the next global pandemic? Excerpt:
Since April 2012, 108 cases of a new virus have been reported in humans, resulting in 50 deaths. Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) is in the same family as Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and the common cold (coronaviruses), but is more closely related to viruses found in bats. The potential emergence of a new virus for which there is no treatment or vaccine is cause for concern. Still, it is far from certain that Mers will result in a pandemic.
My problem with the piece is its blandness. It might serve as a short introduction to MERS for someone who's barely heard of it, and no doubt many of its readers fall into that category. But it adds little or nothing that would give newcomers a sense of the curious aspects of MERS: the continuing failure to find the source, the reticence of the Saudis to give more than the bare minimum of details.
To be fair, he does close the article by saying that "open communication is essential," etc. But that's true of any disease. The lack of transparency in the Saudi cases is a real problem, and the article could have helped put more pressure on the Saudis to adopt a better policy.
So I hesitated to post it, and I do so now only to present it as an example of indifferent science writing.

Related: Saudi Arabia: Confusing MERS advice from Dr. Memish

Via Arab News, a confusing September 12 report: MERS alert tightened as 100th case emerges. Excerpt:
In Madinah, the victims included a 22-year-old male citizen who was in contact with a MERS patient and a 24-year-old male citizen working in the health sector in Madinah.  
In Riyadh, two Saudi men, 60 and 47 years of age, had contracted the virus from MERS patients.  
Dr. Ziad Al-Memish, undersecretary to the Ministry of Health for Public Health, told Arab News that the ministry had already advised people who had contracted the virus to postpone their pilgrimage. 
He said the ministry would keep the people informed of any new developments. 
I'm confused because many of the present cases are too sick to leave their hospitals, never mind going on Hajj. Does he mean people who have recovered? 

Does he think they might still be shedding virus—even the Jordanian healthcare workers who survived the first outbreak in 2012? Or does he expect MERS to appear among the faithful overseas—and if so, how would they manage to leave their beds and catch a plane? I look forward to the reports of new developments, and would be grateful as well for more details on old developments.

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