Mother Nature emits 'executive order': Global warming ‘pause’ may last 20 more years.

Mother Nature emits 'executive order': Global warming ‘pause’ may last 20 more years – Arctic sea ice already recovering.HT: IceAgeNow.

Stunning challenge to global warming orthodoxy  - Warmer temperatures largely due to natural 300-year cycles, says new study.

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.
The paper suggests that the IPCC has underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated the impact of greenhouse gases.

Models diverge widely from reality.

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models forecasting a rapidly warming planet diverge widely from reality.

There has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

A graph published in the Daily Mail reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

According to Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.
Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a cyclical wave in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice.

According to Curry and Wyatt, this means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave.

Current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s.

‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt.
‘The growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations raises the prospect that climate models are inadequate in fundamental ways,’ said Professor Curry.

If the pause continues, this would suggest that the models were not ‘fit for purpose’.


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