Why the Purchase of the S-300 by Iran Should Worry the Gulf States.

Why the Purchase of the S-300 by Iran Should Worry the Gulf States. (Rusi).

A forward deployment of powerful Russian long range air defence missiles to Iran's arsenal could prove intolerable for GCC neighbours and escalate an already tense regional standoff.

To understand better what the S-300 sale might mean for regional security – and why it is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia views the potential Russian sale in such a threatening light – it is useful to highlight four potential Iranian deployment points for the missiles, and discuss their potential implications.

As can be seen from the diagram, sites based in Abadan, Lavan Island, Abu Musa and Sirik significantly change the strategic environment, altering threat levels for both military and civilian aircraft alike. A site based in the vicinity of Abadan offers total coverage over Kuwait City as well as the Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad Al-Jaber airbases. Additionally, popular air corridors used by international carriers through the Gulf could be effectively closed should Iran so wish. Rerouting European flights over Saudi Arabia might provide an answer to this conundrum, but Indian Ocean routes would be far more heavily affected.

Placing missiles on Lavan Island would provide penetrative coverage over Qatar’s north dome gas field and again pose significant threats to civilian airliners using the Gulf as a thoroughfare. Furthermore, linking up with sites on Abu Musa would afford double coverage of strategically important Iranian footholds deep into the Gulf, which would strengthen Iran’s ability to operate in the Gulf under air cover.

Using Sirik would provide a significant boost to Iran’s strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz. Any attempt to prevent Iran from closing the Strait would be made far more difficult, primarily because the first response would traditionally come from non-stealthy US naval and Western air power which would be severely threatened by the presence of an Iranian S-300 system in close proximity to the Strait.

The most dangerous potential location – and the most likely to invite an immediate retaliatory response and trigger a wider conflict – would be the position of a system on the Iranian-occupied island of Abu Musa, which is also claimed by the UAE. 

The missile system’s range would easily cover the Airbases of Al-Minhad and Al-Dhafra, as well as the oil fields of Zakum and Shariqah – not to mention all of the UAE’s major population centres and airports. Hmmm.........'Flexibility'.  The deployment would represent a huge strategic risk for the UAE. Read the full story here.