What 'Ded Moroz' possibly might deliver to Iran - Russo-Iranian defense discussion/agreement.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan signing defense agreement 20JAN15 in Tehran 

What 'Ded Moroz' possibly might deliver to Iran - Russo-Iranian defense discussion/agreement. HT: UskowiOnIran.

There is considerable open source buzz concerning this week's meeting between the Iranian and Russian defense ministers in Tehran. Aviation writer Babak Taghvaee asserts the following:

- Two S-300PMU-2 batteries will be delivered to Iran
- Russian will overhaul and upgrade IRIAF's Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29s and Su-24s to SMT and M2 level respectively, in Tehran

Taghvaee further asserts the defense ministers discussed the followings:
- Russian assistance in overhauling Iranian Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft
- Procurement of 48 new Klimov RD-33 engines for IRIAF
- Procurement of 24 Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft
- Procurement of 100 BTR-80 armored personnel carriers
- Procurement of two Sukhoi Su-25UBKs and delivery of embargoed Sukhoi Su-39 CAS aircraft
- Provision of engines and ejection seats for the Iranian Kowsar 88 training jet via RSK MiG, as well as possible acquisition of Yak-130 for IRGC-ASF instead of the K-8s

COMMENTARY:

- It would surprise this writer to see the Russians deliver the S-300 to Iran at this late point in time. If accurate, either this is further posturing by the Russians vis-a-vis the United States in its dealings with the Ukraine crisis, or perhaps a red line has been crossed, with the Russians reacting with delivery.

- Iranian Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft have been logistical workhorses, for the Iran-led coalition against ISIL and Al-Qaida linked forces in the region. As such, in the list of Russo-Iranian discussion points, this would seem to offer the more likely possibility of acceptance.

- The IRIAF is indeed in need of Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-24 upgrades as well as a/c systems replacements. Recent U.S.-led sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis provide an economic incentive for Russia as a vendor, in suppling Iran with such defense hardware/service.

- It is the opinion of this writer that in terms of possibilities ,the procurement by Iran of the Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft represents a longshot. Again, Russian posturing may come in to play, while on the Iranian side economic conditions would seem to preclude such a purchase. However there is a definite need for Iran to purchase new combat aircraft.

- It makes sense for Iran to acquire BTR-80 APCs for border protection duties, as Babak Taghvaee asserts. Again, U.S.-led sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis provide an economic incentive for Russia as a vendor, in supplying Iran with such defense hardware.

- At this point in time Su-25 related deliveries to Iran might be considered replacement combat aircraft, in the war against ISIL.

- Engines and ejection seats for the Iranian Kowsar 88 and any procurement of training jets (doubling as light attack aircraft)  would also appear subject to current, less favorable economic conditions. However, as in the case of discussion over a potential purchase of Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft, such a groundwork could eventually lead to an acceptable deal at a future date, where conditions are more favorable.

Syria casts shadow as arms trade treaty negotiations kick off in New York.

Syria casts shadow as arms trade treaty negotiations kick off in New York. (AA).One of the reasons this month's negotiations are taking place is that the United States, the world's biggest arms trader accounting for over 40 percent of global conventional arms transfers, reversed U.S. policy on the issue after Barack Obama became president and decided in 2009 to support a treaty. But U.S. officials say Washington insisted in February on having the ability to "veto a weak treaty" during this month's talks, if necessary. It also seeks to protect U.S. domestic rights to bear arms - a sensitive issue in the United States. The other five top arms suppliers are Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. Wood, Macdonald and Abramson said some of the top arms trading countries have been joining other nations in an attempt to weaken the treaty. They said the United States, China, Syria and Egypt were pushing to exclude ammunition. China, they added, wants to exempt small arms, while several Middle East states oppose making compliance with human rights norms a mandatory criterion for allowing arms deliveries.Delegates from around the world gather in New York on Monday for the start of month-long U.N.-hosted negotiations to hammer out the first-ever binding treaty to regulate the global weapons market, valued at more than $60 billion a year. Arms control campaigners say one person every minute dies as a result of armed violence around the world and that a convention is needed to prevent illicitly traded guns from pouring into conflict zones and fueling wars and atrocities. Most U.N. member states favor a strong treaty. If they get their way, all signatories would be charged with enforcing compliance to any treaty by companies that produce arms and with taking steps to prevent rogue dealers from operating within their borders. They say conflicts in Syria and elsewhere cast a shadow over the talks, reminding delegates of the urgency of the situation.There is no guarantee the July 2-27 negotiations will produce a treaty, let alone a good one. In February, preparatory talks on the ground rules for this month’s talks nearly collapsed due to procedural wrangling and other disagreements. In the end, the United States and other countries succeeded in ensuring the treaty must be approved unanimously, so any one country can effectively veto a deal. But the treaty may not be doomed if that happens. Wood said nations that support a strong pact could bring a treaty to the 193-nation U.N. General Assembly and adopt it with a two-thirds majority vote if there is no consensus in July. Given the predominant position of the U.S. as a global arms exporter (the world’s biggest arms exporter with a $55 billion-a-year trade in conventional firearms), any such treaty would have limited relevance without its participation, he said. Ratification would require passage by a 2/3 majority of the U.S. Senate in addition to presidential approval, which is rendered unlikely by opposition from gun rights groups such as the National Rifle Association. As of September 2011, 58 U.S. Senators opposed the Arms Trade Treaty, more than 1/3, according to Alhaj. Wood, Macdonald and Abramson said some of the top arms trading countries have been joining other nations in an attempt to weaken the treaty. They said the United States, China, Syria and Egypt were pushing to exclude ammunition. China, they added, wants to exempt small arms, while several Middle East states oppose making compliance with human rights norms a mandatory criterion for allowing arms deliveries.Hmmmm......This treaty would make everyone run "FAST AND FURIOUS" to the Gunshop?Read the full story here.