Chikungunya in the Caribbean: It's been here before.

Chikungunya in the Caribbean: It's been here before.HT: Crof.

Via Emerging Infectious Diseases: Reappearance of Chikungunya, Formerly Called Dengue, in the Americas. The abstract:

After an absence of ≈200 years, chikungunya returned to the American tropics in 2013. The virus is maintained in a complex African zoonotic cycle but escapes into an urban cycle at 40- to 50-year intervals, causing global pandemics. 

In 1823, classical chikungunya, a viral exanthem in humans, occurred on Zanzibar, and in 1827, it arrived in the Caribbean and spread to North and South America. In Zanzibar, the disease was known as kidenga pepo, Swahili for a sudden cramp-like seizure caused by an evil spirit; in Cuba, it was known as dengue, a Spanish homonym of denga. 

During the eighteenth century, dengue (present-day chikungunya) was distinguished from breakbone fever (present-day dengue), another febrile exanthem. In the twentieth century, experiments resulted in the recovery and naming of present-day dengue viruses. 

In 1952, chikungunya virus was recovered during an outbreak in Tanzania, but by then, the virus had lost its original name to present-day dengue viruses.

Jamaica: Guillain-Barré syndrome cases spike with chikungunya.

Jamaica: Guillain-Barré syndrome cases spike with chikungunya. HT: Crof.

Via the Jamaica Observer: GBS cases spike with CHIKV. Excerpt:

The University Hospital of the West Indies in St Andrew saw about five cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) between October and November 2014. According to consultant neurologist Dr Francene Gayle, on average, she has seen one case of GBS per year since she has been at the health facility. 

The consultant neurologist told the Jamaica Observer that the chikungunya virus that swept across the island late last year and has left several with lingering joint pains caused a spike in the number of GBS cases. 

"I must tell you that, on average, since I have been back, I have been home three years, so on average, I see maybe one case of GBS per year at the University Hospital of the West Indies," Dr Gayle disclosed. 

"But with CHIKV, between October and November, we saw about five cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, so it resulted in a spike in the number of cases that we would normally see annually." 

GBS is a disorder in which the body's immune system attacks part of the peripheral nervous system. The symptoms generally include weakness and tingling in the limbs before spreading, and eventually resulting in paralysis. 

Speaking to Your Health Your Wealth in a recent interview, Dr Gayle said there are a few causes but the commonest cause is post-viral illness. The consultant neurologist explained that influenza as well as a particular bacteria known as campylobacter jejuni can bring on GBS. 

She also spoke specifically to the Jamaican context. "In our Jamaican context, chikungunya virus is also associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome," Dr Gayle said. "Viruses, on a whole, what they do is that your body mounts an attack against the infectious agent and, unfortunately, there are various proteins on the surface of the viruses that your immune system targets. 

"These same proteins have similar proteins on the nerve linings and so the antibodies that are produced to fight these viral infections can actually be mediated against those proteins on the nerves within the body," she continued. "And so the nerves get damaged as a bystander."

Lindsay Lohan battles Chikungunya virus, while the Caribbean are under assault by chikungunya in 2014.

Lindsay Lohan battles Chikungunya virus, while the Caribbean are under assault by chikungunya in 2014.. HT: Crof.


Sounds exotic. And not something you want to catch.

After Lindsay Lohan wrapped up her two-month run in Speed-the-Plow in London at the end of November, she was ready for some rest and relaxation.

She headed for someplace tropical. But the trip to paradise has soured a bit. During her French Polynesian trip with longtime friend Patrick Aufdenkamp, she contracted the Chikungunya virus.

She has been tweeting and Instagramming photos about her trip.

Being sick is no fun. But happy new year everyone. Be safe. Love all. Make a difference and keep your… http://t.co/V7i2F8KnTz
— Lindsay Lohan (@lindsaylohan) December 29, 2014

Before I got chikungunya 😥😰😪 use Big spray please 🙏 God bless. http://t.co/8xg2gNWBz5
— Lindsay Lohan (@lindsaylohan) December 28, 2014

Via Caribbean360.com: 2014 year in review: Caribbean rocked by Chikungunya. Excerpt:

Three general elections and continued socio-economic problems may have made the headlines in the Caribbean in 2014, but it was the Chikungunya virus, the mosquito borne disease that really caught the attention of the region over the past 12 months. 

In addition, while no cases had been recorded, Caribbean countries were putting in place various measures to deal with the deadly Ebola virus that have killed more than 7,000 people in West Africa and spread also by the same mosquito responsible for the Chikungunya virus. 

A crippling mosquito-borne virus with a tongue twisting name, Chikungunya first appeared in the Caribbean towards the end of 2013. But by the end of 2014, every Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country had recorded cases of the virus caused by the aedes aegypti mosquito that causes a dengue-like sickness. 

Symptoms include a sudden high fever, severe pain in the wrists, ankles or knuckles, muscle pain, headache, nausea, and rash. Joint pain and stiffness are more common with Chikungunya than with dengue. The symptoms appear between four to seven days after the bite of an infected mosquito. 

The Trinidad-based Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) warned the Caribbean has not yet felt the “full impact” of the disease. 

“There is an estimate in excess of 600,000 cases in total, most of those being from the bigger countries like the Dominican Republic and Haiti with 37 deaths in total. So it continues to spread,” said CARPHA’s executive director Dr. James Hospedales. 

Dr. Hospedales said that with a population of 17 million people, the region is still in the early stages of the virus, warning “the full bloom of Chikungunya virus is yet to come. 

“I am saying because everybody in this part of the world and there is no resistance to this virus and we have an abundance of the vector and we have a lot of movement. In six months it has moved to all the islands and we can expect further increases in levels of cases because of what has happened elsewhere in the world where in some countries you find a 30 per cent attack rate of the entire population within a year or so.”

More in detail info on Chikungunya can be read here. 

How far spread is chikungunya in Mexico?

How far spread is chikungunya in Mexico? HT: Crof.

A reader wrote this morning to ask about the possible presence of chikungunya in Cancún—likely a concern of many people who like to head south in winter.

A quick scan of Mexican media in the state of Quintana Roo turned up no reports of the disease, but a Spanish-language December 26 report in Quequi.com.mx says anti-mosquito spraying is being conducted from the air to fight both dengue and chikungunya.

While Quintana Roo seems free of both imported and local chikungunya cases, it's now in the nearby state of Chiapas; it seems only a matter of time before it's widespread in southern Mexico.

Chikungunya in the Americas: Might as well call it a million cases (or more)

Chikungunya in the Americas: Might as well call it a million cases (or more). HT: CROF.

PAHO has published a December 5 update on its Chikungunya page.

We are now at week 49, and as usual many of the countries are weeks or months behind: Haiti has stood its ground since week 28 (64,695 suspected cases), when the real total must be at least an order of magnitude higher.

Still we learn that as of week 49 the US had 11 local cases and 1,900 imported cases. 

The Dominican Republic, as of week 41, has 498,916 cases. El Salvador, on the American mainland, had 135,226 cases as of week 47.

 

All told, PAHO says, we have 975,678 suspected cases in the Americas, plus 18,892 that people took the trouble to confirm. 

 

ECDC reported the first autochthonous chikungunya cases in the Americas on December 20. The virus deserves our congratulations, however grudging, for having made so much of its opportunity in one short year. 

 

For its reporting on chikungunya, however, PAHO does not.

Just imagine once it starts spreading in the US!

Mexico detects first case of mosquito-borne chikungunya virus

Mexico detects first case of mosquito-borne chikungunya virus. HT: Crof.

Via Reuters: Mexico detects first case of mosquito-borne chikungunya virus. Excerpt:

Mexico has detected its first domestic case of the painful mosquito-borne viral disease chikungunya in the southwest of the country, the state government of Chiapas said on Saturday. 

Chikungunya is spread by two mosquito species, and is typically not fatal. But it can cause debilitating symptoms including fever, headache and severe joint pain lasting months. 

The government of Chiapas, which borders Guatemala, said an 8 year old girl became the first person to contract the disease in Mexico, and that she was treated in hospital in the town of Arriaga. The girl has since been released. 

There is no commercial vaccine for the virus, which was detected for the first time in the Americas late last year. 

Chikungunya has already appeared in much of the Caribbean, Central America and the United States. A handful of people have had the virus in Mexico, having contracted it abroad. 

In September, El Salvador said it had detected nearly 30,000 cases of the virus. In the United States, locally transmitted infections - as opposed to infections in Americans traveling abroad - were reported for the first time this year.

WHO on chikungunya in France, 4 cases of chikungunya locally-acquired infection.

WHO on chikungunya in France, 4 cases of chikungunya locally-acquired infection. HT: Crof.

WHO has published Chikungunya – France. Excerpt:

On 21 October 2014, WHO was notified by the National IHR Focal Point for France of 4 cases of chikungunya locally-acquired infection in Montpellier, France. The cases were confirmed by tests conducted by the French National Reference Laboratory for arboviruses on 20 October 2014. This is the first time that locally-acquired transmission of chikungunya has been detected in France since 2010. 

The 4 cases of chikungunya infection occurred within the same family, with symptoms onset between 20 September and 12 October. The cases live in Montpellier in the vicinity of a chikungunya case imported from Cameroon. The cases have no history of travel out of their district of residence in the 15 days prior to the onset of symptoms.

Chikungunya is a viral disease that is rarely fatal and is transmitted to humans by infected mosquitoes. Symptoms of chikungunya include high fever and headache, with significant pains in the joints (ankles, wrists), which can persist for several weeks.

The symptoms appear between 4 and 7 days after the patient has been bitten by an infected mosquito.

The name, chikungunya derives from a word in Makonde language roughly meaning “that which bends up”, reflecting the physique of a person suffering from the disease.

First local chikungunya case reported in Costa Rica.

First local chikungunya case reported in Costa Rica. HT: Crof.

Via The Costa Rican Times: 1st Indigenous Case of Chikungunya in Costa Rica Reported. Excerpt:

This afternoon I went to do my dishes and in one of my plastic cups was a dead Aedes mosquito. It was the first time I had actually seen one not in a picture. Dengue & Chikungunya are the only things that frighten me about living in Costa Rica. 

The first reported case of the Chikungunya virus that was confirmed to originate within the borders of Costa Rica has come to pass. 

There have been other Chikungunya victims, but they all acquired the virus overseas before coming to Costa Rica. 

The first case of the Chikunguna Virus being caught on Costa Rican soil occurred  in Parrita in the Puntarenas Province which is located about 30 minutes from Jaco. 

The woman who tested positive for the first indigenous case of the virus was tended to by officials of the Costa Rican Social Security Fund. The Costa Rican Institute for Research and Education on Nutrition and Health performed the test. 

The other 15 victims found to have the virus in Costa Rica came from the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The local woman became sick after hosting a Dominican at her home. This guest was sick but the symptoms went unaddressed. 

The government plans to spray in areas where the patient was, to kill the mosquitoes that might infect others.

Hmmm....I've been posting quite a bit about Chikungunya these last months because i see a huge threat to the US, when this arrives in the US Wetlands.More on chik-V here and here.

Eurosurveillance: "Unprecedented" concurrent outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, Zika virus in the Pacific

Eurosurveillance: "Unprecedented" concurrent outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, Zika virus in the Pacific. HT: Crof.

Via Eurosurveillance: Concurrent outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus infections - unprecedented epidemic wave of mosquito-borne viruses in the Pacific 2012-2014. The abstract:

Since January 2012, the Pacific Region has experienced 28 new documented outbreaks and circulation of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus. 

These mosquito-borne disease epidemics seem to become more frequent and diverse, and it is likely that this is only the early stages of a wave that will continue for several years. 

Improved surveillance and response measures are needed to mitigate the already heavy burden on island health systems and limit further spread to other parts of the world. 

Hmmm....In case you are wondering which mosquitoes carry Chikungunya....The same type that carry West Nile virus, north America be warned!

Hmmm....I've been posting quite a bit about Chikungunya these last months because i see a huge threat to the US, when this arrives in the US Wetlands. More on chik-V here and here.

PAHO: Almost 800,000 chikungunya case as of October 17 (it says here)

The Pan American Health Organization has posted its regular Friday update on chikungunya in the Caribbean and neighboring nations. 

We are now up to epidemiological week 42, but some countries are weeks if not months behind. If not for Ebola taking all the attention, this would be a big scandal.


The regional total is 759,742 suspected cases, plus 12,327 confirmed, plus 1,708 imported. But the Dominican Republic is still at week 38 (486,306 suspected cases, just 84 confirmed). Next door, Haiti hasn't bothered to report since week 28, so we know of only 64,695 cases when the true number must be closer to a million.

So it goes, week after week with no explanation. Download the PDF if you like, but don't bother to print it out. Paper is more valuable.

Jamaica: 10-year-old dies from chikungunya complications.

Jamaica: 10-year-old dies from chikungunya complications. HT: Crof.

Chikungunya continues to spread in the Caribbean. The Jamaicans are taking it especially badly, and have invented their own term for it. Via the Jamaica Observer: 10-year-old dies from ChikV complications.

A 10-year-old student of the Alpha Primary School in Kingston died Friday as a result of complications brought on by the chikungunya virus, the Education Ministry has confirmed. 

A ministry release Friday afternoon said that Akaliah Anderson, who had reported to school for only one day (September 1, 2014), had revealed symptoms of the chikungunya virus. 

It was reported that her condition had not improved and she was subsequently admitted to the hospital. She reportedly developed further complications including a swollen spleen and liver. 

Little Akaliah died Friday. 

The Education Ministry said it was saddened by Akaliah’s death and extended condolences to her family and school community.  

A team of counsellors from the ministry will be providing emotional support to Akaliah’s family, students, teachers and administrative staff at the institution, the release said. 

“This incident brings into sharp focus the need for school administrators, parents and the entire citizenry of Jamaica to begin the clean-up process in our communities – home, school, workplaces – in order to eliminate the spread of the ChikV caused by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,” Education Minister Ronald Thwaites said.

Hmmm....I've been posting quite a bit about Chikungunya these last months because i see a huge threat to the US, when this arrives in the US Wetlands. More on chik-V here and here.

Update:

PAHO: Almost 800,000 chikungunya case as of October 17 (it says here)

The Pan American Health Organization has posted its regular Friday update on chikungunya in the Caribbean and neighboring nations. 

We are now up to epidemiological week 42, but some countries are weeks if not months behind. If not for Ebola taking all the attention, this would be a big scandal.


The regional total is 759,742 suspected cases, plus 12,327 confirmed, plus 1,708 imported. But the Dominican Republic is still at week 38 (486,306 suspected cases, just 84 confirmed). Next door, Haiti hasn't bothered to report since week 28, so we know of only 64,695 cases when the true number must be closer to a million.

So it goes, week after week with no explanation. Download the PDF if you like, but don't bother to print it out. Paper is more valuable.

Jamaica in "national emergency" due to chikungunya outbreak

Jamaica in "national emergency" due to chikungunya outbreak. HT: Crof.

I've been aware of this problem, but Ebola keeps crowding it out. Via the Caribbean Journal: Jamaica in “National Emergency” Due to Chikungunya Virus Outbreak. Excerpt:

Jamaica Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller says the country is in a “national emergency” over the outbreak of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus in the country. 

The virus, which is similar in symptoms to Dengue fever, often leads to fever and severe joint pain that can last from a few days to, in some cases, for years, though it is rarely fatal. 

The disease has spread across the Caribbean region after initially appearing in St Martin in late 2013, but has hit Jamaica particularly hard. 

“I want to stress that we are in a NATIONAL emergency,” Simpson Miller said at a briefing on Tuesday. “I have therefore, assumed a lead role in mobilizing the nation and national resources.” 

She said she sympathized with those across Jamaica who had come down with the painful illness. 

“I understand that some MPs even as we speak are out with the virus,” she said. “I want to commend MPs, Mayors and Councillors who have been active in encouraging your constituents to get involved in the only sustainable way to control and reduce the epidemic – which is, to destroy and reduce mosquito breeding sites.” 

She said the government had called on about $4.5 million USD in state resources for national health emergency response, with the objective of reducing mosquito breeding sites by starting with the worst-affected areas. 

“This is our country,” she said. “We all have a stake and a vested interest in protecting it and in keeping our people safe and healthy.”

According to PAHO, Jamaica last week had just 325 suspected cases, plus 52 confirmed and 2 imported. It sounds as if far more cases are involved than those. Hmmm....I've been posting quite a bit about Chikungunya these last months because i see a huge threat to the US, when this arrives in the US Wetlands.More on chik-V here and here.

Pan American Health organization 748,403 chikungunya cases as of October 10

Pan American Health organization 748,403 chikungunya cases as of October 10. HT: Crof.

PAHO has updated its Chikungunya numbers. (Click through the link and download the PDF in the upper right corner of the page.) It's becoming an increasingly irrelevant document.

Ostensibly this brings us up to week 41, and the total is now 748,403 (suspected) cases. They're suspected because no one bothers to test for it now.

But they're also suspect numbers because so many of them are weeks or even months behind.

The US *is at week 41, all right, with 11 locally acquired cases and 1,326 imported. But Canada hasn't troubled to report since week 32, when it had 8 imported cases.

Where the disease is rapidly spreading, the Dominican Republic counts 486,306—as of week 38. Haiti next door remains The Land That Time Forgot, stubbornly stuck in week 28 and 64,695 cases.

So it goes: Cuba, week 33; Puerto Rico, week 37; Dominica, week 28; Grenada, week 26. Colombia is almost up to date at week 40 and 6,092 cases, as is Ecuador with just one imported case. Jamaica's at week 40 with 325 cases, but given the "Chik-V" political uproar there, the real number must be much higher.

The disparity in updates might be tolerable if PAHO at least bothered to explain why some countries don't report promptly. 

Three-quarters of a million cases since last December? I wouldn't be surprised if the true number were double that or even higher.

*Hmmm.....Just think when Chik-V gets hold in the U.S. Wetlands.

Haiti: 50% of the population could be affected by the chikungunya epidemic

Haiti: 50% of the population could be affected by the chikungunya epidemic. HT: Crof.

Via HaitiLibre.com: 50% of the population could be affected by the chikungunya epidemic. Excerpt and then a comment:

The chikungunya epidemic, which began in late 2013 in the Americas, was detected for the first time in Haiti in May and its rapid spread has led the Haitian government to officially declare a medical emergency. 

To date, Haiti has recorded more than 65,000 cases of chikungunya and those responsible for public health, estimate that up to 50% of the population could be affected by the epidemic. 

Unlike many other diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, no vaccine is available to prevent chikungunya. Common symptoms include fever and joint pain, which can be severe and disabling. 

On Wednesday, the First Lady, Sophia Martelly, visited accompanied by Dr. Florence Guillaume, Minister of Public Health and Population (MSPP) and Dr. George Dubuche, the Director General of the Ministry, went to the Direct Relief warehouse in Port-au-Prince, where drugs to treat one million people will be distributed to 904 public health sites to the population, and others Direct Relief partner hospitals. 

The shipment contains more than 6.1 million Defined Daily Doses of pain relievers, oral rehydration packs, antibiotics, IV solution, malaria tablets, and mosquito spray. This distribution comes in the midst of a rainy season, expected to cause a wave of new cases.

In other words, over five million people could fall ill with chikungunya in Haiti.

Others affected would be the family members who depend on the income and care of relatives who fall ill. Economically, chikungunya may do more damage than cholera has after almost four years: at least 706,291 cases and 8,584 deaths. (Typically, those are MSPP's latest numbers—from August 27.)

Hmmm....I know i'm one of the few who posts about Chikungunya, but if this gets hold in the US wetlands you'll see an epidemic of biblical proportions. Read up on it and prepare.

Chikungunya in North America: "one million cases in the first ninety days!"

Chikungunya in North America: "one million cases in the first ninety days!" HT: Croft.

Via chapelboro.com, a thought-provoking post by Jeff Danner: Chikungunya is Coming: Part I. Click through to read the whole thing. Excerpt, with the author's graphics:

The first ever recorded case of locally-transmitted chikungunya in North or Central America occurred on the island of St. Martin in December of 2013. Since then, an epidemic has spread like wild fire, particularly in the Dominican Republic. The Graph below shows the number of infections reported during the first ninety days of the epidemic in the Dominican Republic, with day zero being April 1 of 2014. 

 In the first 90 days of the epidemic, this nation of 10 million people had 135,000 cases! If the behavior of this epidemic follows the pattern of the outbreak on Reunion Island in the India Ocean from 2005-2006, the Dominican Republic can expect approximately two to four million cases of chikungunya to occur within a year. 

To put it lightly, an epidemic of this proportion will be very challenging and disruptive to the citizens and economy of the Dominican Republic. Overall, there have been over a quarter of a million cases in the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in the first six months of 2014. 

Now let’s consider the probability of a chikungunya outbreak in the continental United States. For starters, essentially zero percent of the population of the United States is immune to chikungunya. Next consider the maps below showing the current ranges of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the U. S.   

As you can clearly see, both species of mosquito are resident in large portions of the country, including North Carolina. 

For the purposes of the calculations below I estimated that approximately 25% of the U.S. population lives within the current range of one or both of these mosquitoes. All that is needed for an epidemic to get started is for one or more infected people to arrive here on boats or planes and the mosquitoes to bite them at the right time. 

The data on this front is not encouraging. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), so far this year there have been 138 confirmed cases of people arriving in the continental US, primarily returning vacationers, with a chikungunya infection acquired while abroad. This number is unprecedented. So far we have been extremely lucky that there have been no reported cases of local transmission. 

While my position is that current conditions make a near-term chikungunya epidemic in the U.S. almost certain, the statement made by the CDC on their website is more measured. Their position is, “There is a risk that the virus will be imported to new areas by infected travelers.” Therefore, either I am being alarmist or they are too concerned about creating a panic to be more forthright about the risk. 

If I am correct and the Southeastern United States is about to have an epidemic similar to the one in the Dominican Republic, we’d have one million cases in the first ninety days! That would make for a few headlines. 

So is there anything we can do to prevent this? Should we have been more prepared that we are? For my thoughts on that, you need to come back next week. In the meantime, I’d think about stocking up on insect repellent.

Hmmm.....Could be the death of Obama care.

France health minister warns of epidemic after 33 chikungunya deaths

France health minister warns of epidemic after 33 chikungunya deaths. HT: Channel NewsAsia,

an AFP report: France warns of epidemic after chikungunya deaths.

PARIS: France's health minister warned Thursday of a serious epidemic in the Antilles and French Guiana after 33 deaths were reported in connection with the chikungunya virus. 

"This is a major epidemic, with about 5,000 new cases every month," Marisol Touraine told BFMTV. "The disease has indirectly caused 33 deaths in vulnerable elderly people, affected nearly 100,000 people and resulted in 1,000 hospitalisations in the French Americas." 

Touraine said she was going to the region next week to deal with what she called "a major public health issue". 

The Antilles, also known as the French West Indies, are a group of Caribbean islands under French sovereignty, while French Guiana is a territory on the north Atlantic coast of South America, bordered by Brazil and Suriname. 

The mosquito-born chikungunya virus has been spreading through the Caribbean and Central America. 

The virus -- rarely fatal, but nevertheless serious -- sparks high fevers and severe joint aches, as well as headaches, nausea and extreme fatigue. 

It does not kill directly but in combination with other illnesses can lead to death.

Jamaica: Committee established to monitor chikungunya...“No problem mon”.

Via the Jamaica Observer: Committee established to monitor Chikungunya. Excerpt:

KINGSTON, Jamaica -- The Ministry of Health has established a committee to monitor the threat of the Chikungunya virus to the island. 

The committee is headed by Director, Emergency, Disaster Management and Special Services, Dr Marion Bullock Duccasse, and meets weekly to discuss that and other matters, Minister of Health, Dr Ferguson said while speaking at a recent post-Sectoral debate press conference at the Office of the Prime Minister in Kingston. 

Dr Fergsuon said that while the virus has not been detected in Jamaica, given international travel and trade, it is likely that it will be introduced into the island. 

He appealed to Jamaicans to take precautions against its spread of the virus by destroying mosquito breeding sites in and around homes, places of business, worship and schools, thus eliminating areas where water can settle. 

“Keep water containers tightly covered, fill old tyres with dirt, keep drums and water tanks covered, and punch holes in cans before disposing of them,” Dr Ferguson urged.

"Damn the mosquitoes....full speed ahead" - Chikungunya and Caribbean tourism.

"Damn the mosquitoes....full speed ahead" - Chikungunya and Caribbean tourism. HT: Croft.

Looking for chikungunya news in the DR, I found this report on Dominican Today: To get 10M tourists Dominican Republic needs ‘50,000 more’ rooms. Excerpt and then a comment:

Santo Domingo.- To meet president Danilo Medina’s goal for Dominican Republic to receive 10 million tourists per year within a decade demands the construction of at least 50,000 additional hotel rooms, said Puntacana Group president Frank Rainieri on Friday. 

Lauding the tourism sector’s performance in recent months as tourist arrivals by air climbed 2.8 % last year according to the Central Bank, the mogul called for greater coherence among the entire sector’s players to achieve the President’s proposal. 

"We’ve have had growth, but regarding the President’s goal a series of adjustments should still be made and work with long-term planning, integration of all segments of the government along with the tourism industry, because 10 million tourists is a very important number, and that can be achieved, but there should be more consistency across all sectors," Rainieri said.

Neither the rest of the report nor the numerous comments have anything to say about the current status of chikungunya in the DR (not to mention dengue and cholera). The commenters' big issues are the frequent electrical blackouts and the threat of robbery.

Discouraging as blackouts and muggings may be to tourists, chikungunya is likely to scare off far more tourists. 

Travellers to the Caribbean are coming home to the US with the disease, and the media are picking up on those cases. Canadians have been a major source of tourism in Cuba, and when some returning tourist turns up in a Winnipeg or Toronto ER with chikungunya, the whole country will soon hear about it. 

A drop in Caribbean tourism would be bad enough. Affluent eastern Canadians and Americans in the northeastern US normally head for Florida like the swallows to Capistrano. Once chikungunya is endemic in Florida and the Gulf Coast, they may head for California—or Scandinavia, where you will run into mosquitoes but the mosquitoes have never run into chikungunya.

North America went through something similar when West Nile virus appeared and swept across the continent. Maybe chikungunya will be just another annoyance before yet another disease migrates into our climate-changed Utopia. Eventually we'll get the message.

Dominican Republic - Almost 100K new suspected chikungunya cases in one week!

Dominican Republic -  Almost 100K new suspected chikungunya cases in one week! HT: Croft.

PAHO has published the June 27 update of its Chikungunya numbers. You'll find the link to the PDF table just above the map of the disease's geographic distribution.

The most dramatic change in the statistics is the number of suspected cases: 259,723, up 93,823 from last week's 165,990. Everyone seems to have given up confirming cases; last week that number was 4,576 and now it's 4,721.

Cases have nearly doubled in the Dominican Republic, from 77,320 in week 23 to 135,835 in week 25.

Haiti in week 23 had 11,802 suspected cases; now in week 26 the number is 39,343. 

In countries dealing with imported cases, the US leads with 73 as of week 26. 

I wonder what the numbers will be by the end of the summer.

Related:

Chikungunya in eastern Cuba