Showing posts with label Gleissberg cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gleissberg cycle. Show all posts

Saturday, December 21, 2013

German Scientists predict a century of global cooling a.k.a. 'Little Ice Age'.


German Scientists predict a century of global cooling a.k.a. 'Little Ice Age'.(DailyCaller).
Better start investing in some warm clothes because German scientists are predicting that the Earth will cool over the next century.
German scientists found that two naturally occurring cycles will combine to lower global temperatures during the 21st century, eventually dropping to levels corresponding with the “little ice age” of 1870.

“Due to the de Vries cycle, the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the ‘little ice age’ of 1870,” write German scientists Horst-Joachim Luedecke and Carl-Otto Weiss of the European Institute for Climate and Energy.

Researchers used historical temperature data and data from cave stalagmites to show a 200-year solar cycle, called the de Vries cycle.

They also factored into their work a well-established 65-year Atlantic and Pacific Ocean oscillation cycle. Global warming that has occurred since 1870 can be attributed almost entirely to both these factors, the scientists argue.

According to the scientists, the oft-cited “stagnation” in rising global temperatures over the last 15 years is due to the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean oscillation cycle, which lasts about 65 years. Ocean oscillation is past its “maximum,” leading to small decreases in global temperature.

The de Vries solar cycle is currently at its “maximum,” explaining why temperatures have risen since 1870, but leveled off after 1998. However, this means that as solar activity starts to decrease, global temperatures will follow.


Through [the de Vries solar cycle's] influence the temperature will decrease until 2100 to a value like the one of the last ‘Little Ice Age’ 1870, the scientists wrote.



Saturday, September 28, 2013

"Global Warming Hitting Hard" - 16 feet of snow possible at Mt Rainier next 4 days.


"Global Warming Hitting Hard" - 16 feet of snow possible at Mt Rainier next 4 days.HT: IceAgeNow.

Mt Rainier WA - 7 Day Forecast

Today Snow. High near 24. South southwest wind 11 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.
  • Saturday Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a southwest wind 16 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.
  • Sunday Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 28 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.
  • Sunday Night Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Breezy. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.
  • Monday Snow showers. Could be heavy at times. High near 16. Chance of precipitation 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
  • Monday Night Snow showers likely. Could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 8.
  • Tuesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 18.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=sew&textField1=46.86&textField2=-121 .76&smap=1
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

"New Maunder Minimum Coming?" - September 21 Breaks The Record For Most Sea Ice Ever Measured At Either Pole.



"New Maunder Minimum Coming?" - September 21 Breaks The Record For Most Sea Ice Ever Measured At Either Pole. (Real Science).

On September 21, Antarctica had the most sea ice ever measured at either pole – 19,514,000 km².  The extent of southern hemisphere sea ice has increased dramatically since the start of satellite records in 1979.

Most people with an IQ over 30 understand that ice forms when the air is cold, but this seems to exclude a significant number of government scientists.

Related: The Weakest Solar Cycle in 100 Years


Scientists are struggling to explain the Sun’s bizarre recent behavior. Is it a fluke, or a sign of a deeper trend?

Penn offered another, more catastrophic option: the sunspot cycle might die altogether. His team uses sunspot spectra to measure their magnetic fields, and his data show a clear trend: the magnetic field strength in sunspots is waning.


Penn's research shows that sunspots' magnetic field strength is declining over time. Sunspots can only form if the magnetic field is greater than around 1,500 Gauss, so if the trend continues, we could be headed for a time where no spots appear on the Sun's surface.

M. Penn: If this trend continues, there will be almost no spots in Cycle 25, and we might be going into another Maunder Minimum,” Penn states. The first Maunder Minimum occurred during the second half of the 17th century. Almost no spots were seen on the Sun during this time, which coincided with Europe’s Little Ice Age.

Related: The Sun That Did Not Roar

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Dawn of a new 'Maunder Minimum'? Solar Activity Drops to 100 Year Low.

Great Britain last winter

Dawn of a new 'Maunder Minemum'? Solar Activity Drops to 100 Year Low.HT: IceAgeNow.

The current peak in the solar cycle is the weakest for a century,” says this article in India Times.

Subdued solar activity has prompted controversial comparisons with the Maunder Minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, when a prolonged absence of sunspots and other indicators of solar activity coincided with the coldest period in the last millennium.”

Lower solar activity might also be one factor explaining some of the recent slowdown in global warming.
"The longevity of the recent protracted solar minimum, at least two years longer than the prior minima of the satellite era makes that solar minimum a potentially potent force for cooling," according to one group of climate scientists ("Earth's energy imbalance and implications" Dec 2011).
Even with the downturn in solar activity, the planet continued to absorb more energy than it radiated out into space.

Yet as the frequent revisions to the panel's forecasts demonstrate, scientists have little ability to predict solar activity accurately, even over short timescales.

The 11-year sunspot cycle, named after the amateur astronomer who discovered it in 1843, Heinrich Schwabe, is not the only cycle scientists have observed in the sun's behaviour.

In 1933, Wolfgang Gleissberg identified a super-cycle occurring every 87 years. Others have claimed to find even longer cycles. Some scientists believe the Gleissberg cycle accounts for the succession of three very weak 11-year cycles between the 1880s and the 1910s.

If that's true, and the Gleissberg cycle is being repeated, then the next solar cycle, Cycle 25, which will last into the 2020s, could see an even smaller number of sunspots and an even lower level of solar activity.

The problem is that no one knows what causes the Gleissberg cycle (and being much less frequent the evidence for it in the time series is much less than for the Schwabe cycle). Nor do they know how to distinguish between a normal Gleissberg cycle and the onset of a new Maunder Minimum.
So if a new Maunder Minimum is on the way, which the forecasters insist it is not, it is likely to catch us by surprise.

Given how little is known about variations in solar activity, it would be foolish to rely on a Maunder Minimum to offset the rise in global temperatures due to greenhouse emissions. Hmmmm.......Every time Earth has experienced an ice age large or small........... it happened ABRUPTLY!Read the full story here.
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