Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas: Three scenarios. (ZikaModel). HT: Crof.

Zika Model displays a map of the Americas (the US is not yet active on it), and when you click on a country you get a range of estimates for the number of possible cases of both Zika and microcephaly. 

The "reference scenario" assumes both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are competent vectors, and offers mid-range estimates based on the literature. The "aegypti scenario" assumes only Ae. aegypti is a competent vectors and again offers mid-range estimates. The "sensitivity analysis" scenario assumes both species are competent vectors and explores "the longest and shortest serial interval allowed by the range of parameters reported in the literature."

Click on Haiti, for example, and you find that the reference scenario projects a Zika attack rate of 46.8% by the end of 2016. Microcephaly cases by then could range from 294 to 1,399.

The site still doesn't include Cuba or the US, but I expect it will get a great deal of traffic when it does. In the meantime, I'm putting a permanent link to it in the Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika Resources list.

"Projections of Zika virus local transmission in the Continental US"

Canada: Flu vaccine likely a poor match with this fall's strain, H3N2 tries to evade the immune system.

Source: Deaths: Final Data for 2013, tables 1, 7, 10, 20[PDF - 1.5 MB]

Canada: Flu vaccine likely a poor match with this Fall's strain, H3N2 tries to evade the immune system. HT: Croft.

Via CBC News British Columbia, a local story: Flu vaccine likely a poor match — again — with this fall's strain. Excerpt:

The seasonal flu vaccine is likely a poor match for the strain of the virus circulating in B.C., offering just 30 to 50 per cent protection — though officials still urge people to get the shot. 

So far, it appears H3N2 is the predominant influenza strain making people sick in the province — with three outbreaks at long-term-care homes this fall. 

The seasonal flu vaccine is designed to protect against the H3N2 strain — along with H1N1 and influenza B — but it appears it will offer only 30 to 50 per cent protection, said Dr. Perry Kendall. In a good year, the protection offered by the seasonal flu vaccine can be 60 per cent or higher. 

"It's less than we like," said Kendall, but it is "significantly better protection" than last year, when the flu shot offered nearly zero protection. 

That hasn't changed the official advice that anyone over six months old, as well as those at high risk of serious illness, including children, pregnant women and the elderly, should get the shot. 

"If I could reduce your chances of having a really nasty illness by 50 per cent, would you take it?" said Kendall. 

'Notorious' strain for evading immune system 

The mismatch isn't for lack of trying by scientists around the world. But influenza is a difficult virus. 

Each year, the World Health Organization makes forecasts which strains are likely to be predominant in the Northern Hemisphere during flu season — in time for drug companies to manufacture the vaccine. 

By the time flu season arrives, the fast-mutating, gene-swapping virus may have outfoxed those efforts. 

"It's important to emphasize that influenza viruses, particularly H3N2, are really notorious for changing their antigenic makeup ... to try to evade the immune system," said Kendall.

The Muslim Brotherhood in North America (Canada/USA)”

The Muslim Brotherhood in North America (Canada/USA)” HT: GMBR.

By gmbwatch

Terrorism analyst Tom Quiggin has published a new and comprehensive report on the Muslim Brotherhood in North America with an emphasis on Canada. The report concludes:

• Canada has a significant presence of Muslim Brotherhood adherent individuals and organizations. Their values and actions are frequently the antithesis of the Canadian Constitution, values and law.  Despite statements to the contrary, the Muslim Brotherhood considers itself above local laws and national constitutions.

• The Muslim Brotherhood’s use of settlement and the ‘process of civilization jihad’ has proven effective.  The long term aim is to globally impose a virulent form of political Islam to the exclusion of other faiths or systems.

• Internationally, the Muslim Brotherhood is realigning under pressure as old alliances crumble and opportunities arise. An aggressive posture is re-emerging which has used extensive political violence in the past. 

• The policy and process of denial is deeply rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood.

• Muslim Brotherhood adherent groups should not be given governmental accreditation, access to public grants nor should they have charity status.

• Canada’s stance against Muslim Brotherhood adherent organizations in recent years has been more aggressive than the USA, especially in financial areas.”

The GMBDW welcomes this highly useful report which, among other things, draws from the Hudson report on the US Muslim Brotherhood written by the GMBDW editor.

Tuberculosis outbreak in downtown L.A. sparks federal effort to locate 4,500 people who may have been exposed to the disease.

Tuberculosis outbreak in downtown L.A. sparks federal effort to locate 4,500 people who may have been exposed to the disease.(LATimes).LOS ANGELES, CA - Public health officials have launched a new, coordinated effort to contain a persistent outbreak of tuberculosis in downtown L.A.’s skid row, including searching for more than 4,500 people who may have been exposed to the disease.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have dispatched scientists to Los Angeles to help local health officials figure out why the disease is spreading and how to stop it.
Nearly 80 tuberculosis cases have been identified and 11 people have died since 2007, most of them homeless people who live in and around skid row. Scientists have recently linked the outbreak to one tuberculosis strain that is unique to Los Angeles, with a few isolated cases outside the area.
“This is the largest outbreak in a decade,” said Jonathan Fielding, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.
“We are really putting all of our resources into this.” Health workers have identified about 4,650 people who probably were exposed and are trying to track them down for testing and treatment.
Local and federal officials are particularly concerned because the cases are all linked to one relatively small geographic area and one vulnerable population. Officials are worried the outbreak could spread beyond skid row if action isn’t taken.
Homeless people are especially at risk of getting tuberculosis and of being undiagnosed because they tend to have poor hygiene and nutrition, limited access to healthcare and ongoing contact with infected people. Transmission of the airborne disease is also common because they tend to live in overcrowded areas and to continually move among hospitals, shelters and the streets.
Many homeless people also have substance abuse or mental health issues that can impede treatment.
“They go from place to place and the likelihood of passing it along is much greater,” said Paul Gregerson, chief medical officer of the JWCH Institute, which runs a homeless healthcare program on skid row. “It makes everybody more susceptible.”
Tuberculosis is easily passed along. It is contracted by inhaling droplets from infected patients when they sneeze, cough or laugh. When left untreated, the disease can be deadly.
The skid row strain can be treated by all anti-TB medications. Treatment lasts six to nine months. The health department issued an alert several weeks ago to doctors at emergency rooms, clinics and urgent care centers informing them about the investigation within the homeless community. Most of the patients are male and about 20% are also HIV positive, according to the alert, which was obtained by The Times.
Six of the eight patients who also had HIV have died. The increase of tuberculosis among the homeless population is occurring even as the county is seeing a decline in overall cases, officials said. There probably are additional cases among the homeless that have not yet been confirmed.Read the full story here.