Leading Russian Economists: The Oil Age Is Over; Russia Needs Internal Reforms To Overcome Recession.

Leading Economists At Russia's Sixth Gaidar Forum: The Oil Age Is Over; Russia Needs Internal Reforms To Overcome Recession. (Memri).

This year the Forum hosted government officials, heads of leading Russian and foreign companies, and various experts, who discussed Russia's development in light of the current crisis, the technological revolution of the last decades, and recent political changes.

Addressing the forum, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the Russian government needs to prepare for "the worst-case scenario."[1] 

This, in light of the deep difficulties the country is experiencing: The drop in oil prices, which have fallen by almost 70% in the last 18 months, has crippled the Russian economy, due to loss of income from energy exports as well as from taxes on oil and gas, which generate about half of the Russian government's revenue. The grim economic situation is worsened by Western sanctions that deny international credit to Russian banks. The crisis is reflected in the value of the ruble, which has plummeted from a high of 30 to the dollar to around 75.

Two other prominent speakers at the forum were Herman Gref, CEO of Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, who was economy minister during Vladimir Putin's two terms as president, and Alexey Kudrin, a former finance minister and the architect of Russia's financial system. Known as the "St Petersburg economists," Kudrin and Gref are considered the leading liberal reformers in Putin's administration in the early and mid-2000s, and the main figures responsible for crafting the economic policies of the Putin and Medvedev presidencies. At the conference both called for deep internal reforms to avoid further descent into recession.

The following are excerpts from statements made at the Gaidar Forum and concerning the issues discussed in it.

Addressing the forum, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref noted that the oil age is over, because there have been radical changes in consumption: "The era of hydrocarbons is in the past. Just like the Stone Age ended, and not because they ran out of stones, the oil age is also over."[2]

According to the Moscow Times, Gref complained that Russia has failed to adapt to economic and technological change and has "fallen into the ranks of 'downshifter' countries that will catastrophically lag behind their more advanced rivals. He added that Russia "must honestly admit" that has "lost to competitors."

Warning of "technological subjugation," he added that, in the new technology-driven world, the difference between leaders and losers would be "larger than during the industrial revolution."

Gref's warning came after the decline in oil prices has thrown Russia into its longest recession since the 1990s, demonstrating the country's reliance on energy exports.[3] As a solution, Gref called for radical reforms of state governance, reduced regulations, stricter measures by law enforcement agencies and by the courts, and a more extensive diversification into non-oil sectors.[4] "Reforms are badly needed, or we will end up far behind other countries," Gref stated.[5]

Gref elaborated that Russia should not only "change all government systems" but also reform the education system, to enable its citizens to join the "technological revolution." He stressed that "primarily education, from kindergartens to universities" should be reformed by "scrapping of the old Soviet educational system." "Welcome to the future!" Gref said.[6]

PM Dmitry Medvedev echoed Gref's demand for internal reforms. "Even though reforms are always painful, we need them today, during this period of crisis. […] Stagnation is the hot issue in the world. We can't afford to let ourselves be trapped in economic decline, as it will lead directly to recession."[7]   Read the full story here.

Integration Case : German Court to Rule on Swim Lessons for Muslim Girls.

Integration Case : German Court to Rule on Swim Lessons for Muslim Girls.HT: Spiegel.

A German court will rule Wednesday whether Muslim girls can be exempted from co-ed swimming lessons, an issue that has sparked many disputes. The judges must decide what takes precedence: freedom of religion or the state's obligation to educate all.

Aisha, a 13-year-old schoolgirl, is actually an ideal student in the eyes of German politicians who advocate the integration of people from other cultures. Her parents moved to Germany from Morocco; her father is a tradesman and her mother is a housewife. Aisha (not her real name) attended school until the age of eight in Morocco, yet she still managed to do well at Helene Lange High School in Frankfurt. She received top grades in math, English and German. When she grows up, she wants to become a doctor.

Yet for a number of years her family has been locked in a dispute with the central German state of Hesse. This case is about whether Aisha, who has been raised according to the Muslim faith by her parents, can be forced to attend mixed swimming classes with boys. In a broader sense, though, it has to do with the relationship between the state and religion.


This Wednesday, the judges of Germany's Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig, the country's highest court for public and administrative disputes that don't concern the constitution, will examine the case.

According to the court, it is necessary "to clarify the conditions under which a pupil, based on his or her basic right to freedom of religion, can, on an individual basis, be exempted from the obligation to attend a school event." The judges will have to make a fundamental decision between the individual's constitutional right to freedom of religion and the state's constitutional obligation to educate all children.

Conflicts repeatedly arise between families and schools when boys and girls are to attend co-ed swimming classes. According to a survey conducted on behalf of the German Islam Conference, a forum of dialogue between Muslim groups and the government, seven percent of Muslim girls don't attend co-ed swimming lessons, and roughly half of their families give religious reasons for this absenteeism. What's more, 10 percent of the girls don't take part in class trips where children spend nights away from home.

In extreme cases, this can mean the children are not allowed to attend certain schools. In the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, middle schools, high schools and secondary schools are allowed to make a child's acceptance dependent on whether the parents consent to their son or daughter attending co-ed swimming classes. In the northern German state of Lower Saxony, a father recently pulled his daughter out of high school because she wasn't excused from swimming classes.

Conflicts over the point where the state's duty to educate children takes precedence over the right to exercise freedom of religion are not just limited to Muslims. This Wednesday, the judges of the Federal Administrative Court will also consider a lawsuit filed by Jehovah's Witnesses who object to their son having to watch the film "Krabat," based on a book by German children's books author Otfried Preussler, because the story involves black magic.

It was 20 years ago, in August 1993, that the Federal Administrative Court exempted a 12-year-old Muslim girl from attending physical education classes if they were not held separately for boys and girls. But times have changed and today many courts have distanced themselves from this position. They now require Muslim girls to at least attend swimming classes dressed in a burqini.

For instance, the Düsseldorf Administrative Court issued the following ruling in the case of a sixth grader in the spring of 2009: The contours of her body could be perceived "only vaguely and thus with no negative impact" underwater, at least when wearing a burqini, the court wrote, noting that the plaintiff could wear a bathrobe at the edge of the pool and change her clothes in a private cubicle. Furthermore, the court ordered the school to make full use of "all pedagogical and organizational options" to prevent a stigmatization.


In Aisha's case, both the Frankfurt Administrative Court and the Hesse Higher Administrative Court have rejected the bid for an exemption -- and decided that the girl will have to tolerate the sight of her fellow male students wearing swimming shorts. According to these courts, an encroachment on the right to freedom of religion is justified here by the state's educational goals.

Mathias Rohe, an Islamic law expert in the Bavarian city of Erlangen, concurs with this approach -- and sees it as a sign of normalcy. Years ago, when relatively few Muslims lived in Germany, it was possible to make exceptions to the rules, says Rohe, "but now Islam has become part of Germany -- with all the rights and obligations that this entails," he argues.