What will Iran's reaction be to an allied strike on Syria?

What will Iran's reaction be to an allied strike on Syria? HT: NOW.

As more indications show that the international community is heading to some sort of strike on Syria, the main concern is now Iran. While the Islamic Republic might not react directly by bombing Israel or Jordon,  it will try its best to secure its interests in Syria.

Therefore, the U.S. needs to make sure there is a plan in place to check any growing Iranian influence in Syria after the possible military strike. This requires a long-term strategy for Syria, one that should also take into consideration the heightened Sunni-Shiite tension in Syria and Lebanon.

Iran’s objective in Syria is not to protect the Assad regime. Iran wants to make sure it does not lose the territorial advantage in Syria, mainly linking Lebanon to Damascus and the coast through Qusayr and Homs. With or without Assad and his regime, they will do anything to maintain it even if they have to fight until the last Sunni in Syria and the last Shiite in Lebanon, and this needs to be addressed during and after a military strike. More Sunni-Shiite clashes could be a consequence.

However, it is not going to be an easy task for Iran to uphold its influence. Russia has already backed off, and although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “a military action on Syria without UN approval is a grave violation of international law." He also assured that Russia “is not planning to go to war with anyone" over Syria.

A military strike is a game changer, especially for Russia. It will probably kill any diplomatic initiative (including Geneva II), meaning that Russia will lose a serious advantage in Syria. This also means that Russia will lose its bargaining chips which could have bought them the consensus they need, political or economic. But this does not mean that Russia will stand up to the U.S. militarily, as the losses in this case would be more severe.

As for the Syrian regime, it has proven that it never has and never will attack Israel. “The right to respond” is all that has been achieved on that front. But will Iran do it? The answer is probably no: Iran has never engaged militarily against the U.S. or its allies, including Israel. They usually use Hezbollah for that, and Iran’s economy cannot afford a war with the international community right now.

Meanwhile, in Syria Hezbollah is fighting Iran’s war, but they are not using their full military strength. If Hezbollah was allowed to use its heavy weaponry, the Party of God could have achieved greater victories on the ground in Syria. But they didn’t and they won’t – the objective is not to bring victory to Assad, but to secure their territory.

The reason for this is simple. Hezbollah’s arms are to be used for one reason only: to protect Iran’s nuclear program. In case Iran’s program is hit, Hezbollah will probably be used to launch a war against Israel. If Syria is hit, it is unlikely that Hezbollah or Iran will do anything.

Iran will also not stand still if they feel they’re losing Syria. The perception so far is that a military strike will be limited, using long-range cruise missiles to target Assad's military assets but not to cause regime change.

If this is true, then Iran’s interests in Syria will not be seriously jeopardized. If a strike turns out to be more than that, Iran will possibly react, albeit with a very limited response.

One needs to understand that Hezbollah is far more significant for Iran than Syria. So Iran will not sacrifice Hezbollah for Syria in any military action, nor will it sacrifice Hezbollah’s heavy weaponry.

So what will Iran do?

There are only two options: 

1) Use Hezbollah and its counterpart in Iraq to further destabilize the region. This will work to a certain extent but will not change much on the ground in Syria if the West is heavily invested. On the contrary, it will increase sectarian tensions – which have reached a dangerous level already – and even Hezbollah is not happy with the repercussions.

2) Give more attention to diplomatic efforts in order to reach a settlement over the nuclear program. The more bargaining chips Iran loses in the region, the more compromising it will be. The nuclear program is what really matter for Iran, after all.

In any case, Hezbollah will have lost it all. Its involvement in Syria has killed it as a resistance force, regionally and locally. The fear here is for Lebanon’s Shiites, who will have to pay the price of all the above. 

Hanin Ghaddar is managing editor of NOW. She tweets @haningdr.

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