‘Obama Should Clearly Say He Will Not Allow A Nuclear Iran’.

‘Obama Should Clearly Say He Will Not Allow A Nuclear Iran’.(Israel Hayom).Elliott Abrams, who served as Deputy National Security Adviser for Global Democracy Strategy under former U.S. President George W. Bush, and as Washington’s resident Middle East adviser, is very concerned. Not only is he worried about the latest developments in the region, but also about the current U.S. president, Barack Obama. Currently, Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. This week, Abrams came to Israel to take part in the 2012 Presidential Conference in Jerusalem and in a conference at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies - headed by Professor Efraim Inbar - and agreed to share his views on regional developments.
The results starting to come out of Egypt as the second round of presidential elections draws to a close, is actually encouraging, Abrams argues. “First of all, as I understand the results, [Egyptian presidential candidate on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed] Morsi, is winning by a couple of percents. What that will show the Muslim Brotherhood is that this is essentially a fifty-fifty vote. Half of the people of Egypt didn’t want them. I think that strengthens the army. It gives a boost to their morale.” “We know that the army wants to keep this treaty [with Israel]. The brotherhood has signaled that it will keep the peace treaty. I worry a lot about Sinai, I think the security situation in Sinai is very dangerous, but I don’t think they will abrogate the treaty.”
“The treaty will remain. But, they have a terrible problem in Sinai. You have Bedouins, you have jihadis, you have criminals, you have Hamas, it’s going to be a mess, and Israel is going to have to be dealing with this for a long time.”
In Syria, where a 15-month uprising against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has already taken thousands of lives, Abrams urges immediate American intervention. He reverts to Cold War terms in describing the battle Russia is waging against the U.S. via Syria’s “axis of evil” - Iran and Hezbollah. “I agree with the view that this is essentially a proxy war, in the sense that you have Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime. This is a real axis of evil. We cannot allow them to win. One country is arming this regime, and not just over the past decade, but now, now, [Russia is] continuing to sell arms. So in my view, here the strategic and the humanitarian go together.” “I’m told that there is a presence of al-Qaida and other jihadis [in Syria]. It should not surprise us. In this situation you have Sunnis being slaughtered by people they consider to be Shiites, essentially. So of course these jihadis will be attracted to go to Syria. Many of them have already been to Syria, because they went through Syria to get to Iraq in the first place. They want to fight this fight [for Assad]. The more this becomes an Alawi-Sunni fight, the harder it will be in the end to have any kind of reconciliation, so we should try to get this over, soon.
”What about an Israeli attack on Iran? “I do not advocate an Israeli strike on Iran, because I think that is a decision only Israelis can make. It is much too easy for me to sit in Washington, 5,000 miles away and say, yeah, attack Iran. Iranian missiles are not going to fall on my house and my family is not going to be at risk. I don’t think Americans should be for it or against it.” Abrams says Americans should either support whatever decision Israel makes, or say “we think the United States should do it … we should not leave this to Israel.” “But I don’t want to be perceived as saying Israel needs to do this tomorrow. Only Israelis will pay the price, therefore the Israelis need to make the decision.”
 Obama has already said that all the options are on the table. “I think it’s not enough. We all want the negotiations [between the West and Iran] to succeed, but there is only one chance: If Iran’s Supreme Leader, [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei] is persuaded that the United States is willing to attack, that he will never get a nuclear weapon. The president needs to make that clear. The president has said things that are ambiguous: he said to Israel ‘I have your back,’ he said ‘I don’t bluff,’ he said ‘all options are on the table.’ What’s missing? A statement that says very clearly ‘I will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon, if I have to use military force to prevent it, I will.’ The ayatollah needs to understand that he will never get a nuclear weapon while Obama is the president of the United States. And Obama hasn’t done that.”
I think even an Israeli attack would help the president. I assume that like any president he would back Israel, as he said he would. If the president seems strong, and says to the Iranians ‘you’re not going to get a nuclear weapon; you’re not going to close the Strait of Hormuz; you’re not going to attack Israel, and the Saudis and the Emirates, and American bases in the Gulf,’ he would look strong and I think that the American people would support him. But apparently that is not the view of the White House.”
Abrams further speculates that there will not be any progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, at least not until after the upcoming U.S. presidential election this coming November. “I don’t think anything is going to happen soon. I don’t see any serious negotiations, at least this year, because you have the U.S. elections and everyone wants to see who the president will be and what the American policy will be. This is an issue for 2013 or for 2014.” “I don’t think that Abbas today wants a serious negotiation. He’s waiting for the elections, and he’s waiting to see what happens with Iran, like everybody. I don’t see how he can make very big compromises, because Hamas will say ‘you’re a traitor’. Remember that [former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert made a big proposal in 2008. Why didn’t Abbas accept it? One of the main reasons was that he knew that Hamas would say ‘Arafat never gave anything away; you gave it away, you’re a traitor to the Palestinian people; you’ve abandoned the refugees.’ I don’t think he’s going to do that.”Read the full story here.