Russian - American Historian: "Putin prepares for a big war."

Russian - American Historian: "Putin prepares for a big war." (InformNapalm).

Interview famous Russian-American historian Yuri G. Felshtinsky Kiev Russian journals "Business" that editors refused to publish, but it hit the pages of other publications.

- Recently, Vladimir Putin visited Russia annexed the Crimea. As can be appreciated, this visit and his rhetoric that Russian army will be equipped with the most advanced weapons and it will belong to the field of strategic offensive weapons?

- Putin prepares for a big war. After the occupation of the Crimea in March 2014 the world was divided into optimists and pessimists. The first thought that Putin will stop at the Crimea. Second - that Crimea is just the beginning, the first step of a long journey, scheduled for Russia Putin. Unfortunately, the Crimean peninsula was handed over without a fight. Then all rejoice, and Russia, and Ukraine, and the whole world - that there were no casualties. The only thing that we then heard from the European and American leaders: let Putin say that Crimea everything is limited, and we'll live together as before. Instead, Putin announced to the world that it's time to fix the historical mistakes of 1991, which resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Here's the tune - the correction of historical errors - we now every morning and hear in various forms; we are now under her wake up and go to sleep under it. In the morning, wake up and climb into the Internet: Russian troops have entered is already in Ukraine, or not yet. That is the reality, which was created by Putin in March 2014.

Successful blitzkrieg to seize the Crimea has generated euphoria in Russia and finally turned the head of Putin himself. He began classical dizzy with success. Everything that happened then in the Donbas, Lugansk, and even in Odessa - the result, on the one hand, Putin's overall strategic plan for the correction of historical mistakes of 1991, and on the other - a consequence of the bloodless surrender Ukraine Crimea. In Crimea, really avoid bloodshed. But now Ukraine has the war in the east, hundreds of victims (may already be thousands?), And this war threatens to expand and of the Russian-Ukrainian smooth transition into the world.

- It is inevitable?

- World War III? No. It is not inevitable. Now the pre-war period. It is not for Russia and Ukraine prewar (these countries are already in the war). He prewar for the rest of the world. Of course, there is the opportunity to stop the war. This possibility is always there. And many of the big war must have been prevented, and therefore we do not know about them and they do not study. But those steps are done now Russia, can not lead to a major war. It is not just about the Crimea or Donbass - Lugansk. It is not just about Ukraine. It is about the whole of Europe. Russian military exercises conducted in all the border areas of the Kuril Islands to the Kaliningrad region, from the Black Sea to the Baltic. Waived unilaterally enough technical bilateral military agreements, to which even no one pays attention. For example, May 5, 2014 to the sound of the collision in eastern Ukraine, the Russian government unilaterally severed signed in 2001 with Lithuania bilateral agreement on additional measures to build confidence and security. Under this agreement, if we bear in mind Russia, the Russian side was obliged to share information with Lithuania on its military capacities in the Kaliningrad region and carried out together with the Lithuanian side of their military inspections. Lithuania abide by all the terms of this agreement, and did not give a reason for the break.

"This move demonstrates its unwillingness to Russia to ensure mutual trust and can be considered as another step towards the destruction of mutual trust and security in Europe," - said in a statement the Ministry of Defence of Lithuania on the matter. Note that we are talking about Kaliningrad, ie of the most remote western part of Russia. Now combine this with the last speech of Putin's creation of a powerful military base in the Crimea, and you will realize that it is about creating two bridgeheads for future offensive operations of the Russian army, in the south (in the Crimea) and the west (in the Kaliningrad region). Add to this the concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, a joint military exercise with Belarus calls reservists for summer exercises, changing the law on the timing and frequency of these calls reservists initial appointment Rogozin curator MIC Russia and the ever-increasing budgets for service, boorish provocative rhetoric approximate the Kremlin and Putin jester Zhirinovsky - and you realize that everything points to the preparation of Russia to world war. "Response" sanctions Kremlin towards Europe and the United States also point to prepare Russia for the war and isolation. Russia knows that after the start of full-scale military action, it would be in absolute isolation, and this isolation and rupture with the civilized world, it actively and openly prepared. The gas supply is stopped on credit; advance prohibit the importation of foreign products to Russia gradually rebuilt and began to feed herself to the country suddenly not started goods famine. Some are close to the Kremlin structure type of "Lukoil", begins selling foreign assets. About close to the Kremlin "private citizens" I did not say they had long prepared for this war. Timchenko, for example, sell their assets on the day before the first administration of sanctions. All this, I repeat, against the background of the fact that Russian strategic bombers resumed violate air borders of NATO and NATO planes chase. This with the Brezhnev era was not. This preparation for war, not only with Ukraine, but also with the world. Ukraine was the first front of this war.

- But it is not reasonable to start a major war?

- Of course, it is unreasonable. But no ruler and commander, the war begins, does not consider that a big war starts, and especially does not believe that the world goes to war. If it was known in advance the result of wars, none would have begun. Take for example the First World War. It was all a misunderstanding. Europe felled branch on which sit very comfortably. On the political map of Europe disappeared Empire: Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian; Winners: France and the United Kingdom - have lost more people than World War II and from this "victory" is not able to recover. And all this because of the assassination of the heir of one terrorist in Serbia. Avenged one heir, and dare yourself all the monarchies of continental Europe. Reasonably it? Absolutely unreasonable.

It took 100 years. By March 2014 we again lived comfortable, cozy, peaceful, bearing in mind Europe. Functioning market economy, the boundaries are becoming more open. Russia from a poor Soviet power in 2014 due to high prices for gas and oil, due to the fact that Russian companies have entered the world stock exchanges and traded their shares through unlimited lines of credit to become part of the global economy Russian large and medium-sized businesses, has become prosperous rich country, and the Russians - wealthy citizens. Live and live. But the people who seized power in Russia (they are all from the KGB), all other tasks than the welfare of the Russian people. Now Putin begins the path through which Hitler and Germany were held in 1938-1945, respectively. But, like Austria-Hungary in 1914, as Germany in 1938-39, Putin and his entourage do not understand what a great start to the war. Recently the "Third World" was the voice for us on the orders of Putin, Zhirinovsky, but only in order to intimidate us her perspective, and not because he has a presentiment of the Third World. He expects to surrender.

- What should be done to avoid war?

- Let's start with what should have been done in the period of March to July 2014 the Ukrainian side and what she did not. From the first day it was necessary to declare that Russia started the war against Ukraine. Only now, under the pressure of the facts and circumstances from time to time some members of the Ukrainian government and the public mention that generally occurs may indicate the beginning of a war against Ukraine. And the war is already five months. And the government of this nation is not yet said. People should speculate and to conjecture. Military aspects of the question - what the Crimea had to fight - we even discuss now will not. Of course, it was necessary for the Crimea war, because for the salvation of souls east Crimean Ukraine now pays ten times more.

No army and quickly it did not create, it's understandable. No money, and they do not quickly find. It is also understandable. Accordingly, do not buy weapons - and it clearly. But Russian propaganda TV channels broadcasting in the whole of Ukraine, because it was possible to disable? You do not need no money, no army. To do this, you just need to have some idea of ​​what is happening and some (sorry) of the brain. Why do it just now, five months later, when the war in the east already? Why is the general background of talk about lack of money had been paid 786 million dollars Russia for gas supplied earlier when Yatsenuk repeatedly stated that during the occupation of the Crimea the same Russian Ukrainian gas was kidnapped by a large amount? Who gave the order to pay the money to Russia? What is this stupidity or treason? Why not launched an investigation of this crime? If you tell me that Russia does not pay "rollback" for these 786 million, I do not believe it. I remember what the campaign was unwound by Russian television in order to receive the money. Putin - Medvedev - Miller does not peel off screen, demanding 786 million - it is so important to them was to get the money to continue the war with Ukraine. And Ukraine instead let the money on his defense, gave them to Russia to engage in war against themselves.

So many things could have been done in March and July, without spending money, but rather to save.

Military, diplomatic and political opportunities in Ukraine, unfortunately, limited. But as long as she is not aware of Ukraine and say openly that she started a war against NATO for help is not coming. Why NATO should come to the rescue if the Ukrainians are not fighting with the Russian army, and with local separatists? What does the NATO, where do the US and Europe? Well, sort it out yourself, if your local militias.

You know perfectly well that this is not a "militia", not "separatists" and that they are not local. Then he should say that it was clear and in Ukraine and abroad.

That makes the Ukrainian government, there is no consistency. If Russia is an aggressor, why there is a discussion of "humanitarian aid"? Ignore it or not? Getting it or not? Conduct customs clearance or not? Where did you see that a country against which the aggression started, received from humanitarian assistance to the aggressor? The answer is clear: do not get, do not miss, do not carry out customs clearance; equate to the penetration of the enemy into its territory and destroy. What can there be questions and doubts? Poles ever received from Hitler humanitarian aid? Even NATO stated that it considers "humanitarian convoy" of 280 cars Russian invasion in Ukraine. But Ukrainians are discussing what a truck - baby food or something else, and why they are half empty. What is the difference in them and why they are empty? Free cheese is only in a mousetrap. A convoy of 280 KamAZov this is your mousetrap with free cheese. Tell me about it openly, declaring that destroy the tower in case of penetration in Ukraine - and the end of the debate on "humanitarian aid". Russia wants to help the people of eastern Ukraine? Let withdraw its troops from Ukraine and stop the shelling. Then do not need humanitarian assistance.

Now Moscow is ready to hook or by crook yourself push through Ukraine. It is important that the Ukrainians understand two things. First, there is no chance not to fight. Second, in Ukraine will not stand alone. We need to work on getting the widest possible support from Europe and America. This is the main military and political task of the government. Unfortunately, Europe and America are arranged so that, while no bloodshed, no one responds. Western structures do not work as "first aid". On the phone call can not help this. But seek military support - the main task of the government, so Ukraine must declare that will resist any level of Russian aggression. Helps only those who bounces. It is a vicious circle, and I understand it: as Ukraine comes to resist, she will not help; but she can not resist, if it does not help.

At this stage, Ukraine resists, saying at the same time that there is no war. I suggest resist declaring openly that started the war against Ukraine. Then come help because from all points of view: from the military, political, diplomatic, strategic, geopolitical, and from the point of view of common sense, NATO is more profitable to meet Russian aggressors on the territory of Ukraine belligerent, not enslaved.

- How important is the war in the Donbass in this great conflict?

- This is just one of the scenes. For Ukraine, it certainly is important. If the occupation of Crimea held as blitzkrieg, the Donbas so failed. Residents of eastern Ukraine is now clear that the Russian attempt to reassign currently Ukraine is in their house destruction, war and death, not prosperity and wealth. If, after the occupation of the Crimea could be the illusion that the Russian annexation of Ukraine will take place peacefully, without victims, on the Crimean scenario, now, five months later, clear to all that this is not so. Residents of eastern Ukraine, confident today determined not so complacent with regard to Russia in March 2014, when Lenin monument under the red banner of the Soviet organized rallies demanding referendums. Russian Invasion "polite green men" brought total destruction in Ukraine, killing of civilians and the military, many thousands of refugee problem. And this is only the beginning. In Crimea, these problems too will come only later. It is clear that for Ukrainians nothing good project "New Russia" does not bear. But Putin will continue to push further. Crimean script was option number 1, now implemented option number 2, but there is another option number 3, № 4, № 5 ... Of course, the Russian General Staff, all these options have different names. Gradually these plans voiced by Putin. From his last speech Crimean we learned that in Ukraine there is a civil war that Ukraine is mired in blood, that Russia can not intervene in what is happening in Ukraine. We have not heard anything that would indicate to us on Putin's intention to stop the aggression and interference in the affairs of Ukraine; have not heard about the territorial integrity of Ukraine; heard that Ukraine has the right to decide their own fate itself. I emphasize that we heard just the opposite: Russia will not interfere in Ukrainian affairs, as in Ukraine, bloodshed, civil war, disaster, and the duty of Russia in this situation to intervene. Remember how Molotov before the invasion of Poland in 1939, declared the decay of this "ugly offspring of the Versailles Treaty" and the need in this context to protect the Ukrainian and Belarusian brothers? Here and Putin in his Crimean speech, almost word for word repeats the speech of Molotov. Not surprisingly, the live broadcast of Putin's speech at the last minute canceled. He is there so much uttered all, a couple with Zhirinovsky ...

Ukraine should understand that war with Russia has already begun. If the world and intervene in time to full-scale war will not come - excellent. But you need to come from the worst-case scenario, hoping for the best; and not of the best, because then absolutely the worst happens. Ukraine is fighting not against individual separatists. Assume so, then put before the country, the people, the army the wrong problem. Russian war with Ukraine. Because of this, Ukraine is forced to fight Russia.

- But who can be an ally of Moscow in this war?

- No one. Who is the weakest link in the policies of Putin. If Hitler's allies were Italy and Japan, and sympathy for the Fuhrer and the Nazi movement was strong in many other European countries, on the side of Putin such support is not. Stalin's Soviet Union, of course, defeated in World War II, when, together with Britain and the United States fought against Germany and Italy. But this is not the same as that in the solitude of one Russian forces fighting against the United States, England, Germany, Italy and the rest of Europe. By the way, Putin's Russia is not Stalin's Soviet Union. This is much weaker state.

The Kremlin, of course, is waving a Chinese flag as a lifeline. On the map of Chinese can speak at length, can be short. I will try to briefly. With reference to our conversation about the Russian-Ukrainian war or about the Third World, forget about China. Only on our European ignorance this colossus with feet of clay seems to us a single monolithic power. In the form in which it exists today, China was formed in 1928. So this ancient civilization, but the state is very young, with their serious problems. And because under the current Chinese communist dictatorship government-controlled Chinese media did not tell us about all the problems of this country, they do not become less. We just do not know about them. So China - the last country interested in breach of international order, global stability and the war in Europe, and especially in the world, because China's economy is primarily interested in the stability and sustained investment from Western banks in the Chinese economy. This stability of any major war will be broken. So get involved in an international conflict on the side of Russia, China, of course, will not.

However, I am far from thinking, and (which is promoted by many) that China will take advantage of Russia's involvement in the war in Europe to strengthen its position in Russia, or even for territorial expansion at the expense of Russia. China peacefully waited a hundred years, until the end of Hong Kong rental UK. China still does not take military efforts to annex Taiwan, although Taiwan is certainly "primordial Chinese land." This ancient civilization thinks in terms of centuries, not "presidential terms." Crimean jump Putin for the Chinese - European scam stupid tribal chief, does not have the long-term thinking on the state wisely for generations to come. And speaking of the Russian-Chinese trade, then yes, of course, Russia will start selling gas and oil to Asia instead of Europe. But prices for these raw materials fees will be quite different. Zero price gives endless demand. At zero price anyone will take the Russian oil and gas. But on the high European prices will be nobody to sell them. So China as buyer will not replace Russia Europe.

- You said that the capture of Ukraine is very important Belarus, the Russian army which opens the way to Volhynia and Galicia bypassing Naddnepryanschiny. Now we see him on Lukashenko political maneuvering between the pro-Putin and pro-Ukrainian position. What are his chances to defend from Putin?

- In the eyes of Europe and the United States Lukashenko a dictator, so sympathy for him will not. It does not follow that the world recognizes the annexation of Belarus, Russia. Does not recognize. But this will not change anything. No offense to Belarusians be said, but as a military unit of Belarus - is the missing link, a blank space. What will happen to this country in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian war - at the discretion of the Russian General Staff. If you look at the map, Belarus very strategic attack on Ukraine. Full-scale war with Ukraine is impossible without violating the sovereignty of Belarus. The Russian army, of course, will go to Ukraine, including through Belarus. In agreement with Lukashenko or against his will - does not matter.

Lukashenko makes contradictory statements. Understand it can be. He was nowhere to wait for help, what is Putin, he knows better than us. Putin can not believe he will deceive. Agree with him about anything Lukashenko can not, except that of total surrender. Therefore Lukashenko nervously awaits what will be. And in the case of a full-scale Russian attack will come to Ukraine along the Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian border: from the Crimea, through Belarus to the east and southeast. Will there be a pre-agreement between Putin and Lukashenko of Belarus entry into the Russian Federation, for the passage of Russian troops through the territory of Belarus or even the participation of Belarusian units in joint military operations against the Ukraine - the question of formal technical. Protect Ukraine from Russian aggression Lukashenko seems to me, will not.

- How long Russian society can live in such a state of pre-war propaganda and rigid, which inflates the power rating?

- Indefinitely. The Russian press and television are still working in a given mode, just a little abated ardor. Not one good word about Ukraine and Ukrainians, the US and Europe on Russian television, you will not hear. Most of the population of Russia, unfortunately, does not use the internet, get news only from the Russian media, as you well know what show and write the Russian media about Ukraine. If Hitler and Goebbels were such propaganda tools, to conquer the world it would be much easier.

Russian propaganda machine rebuilt Putin years, starting from 2000. In Russia, everything is just gasped and groaned: oh, why is Putin needed to subdue the independent Russian media. That's it for the whole machine of meekly obeyed the orders from above: wet Chechens said - will drench the Chechens. Georgians said wet - moisten the Georgians. Said Ukrainians - will drench the Ukrainians. Such a system will exist as long as the Putin regime will survive.

Rating power - a separate issue. Rating seriously makes sense to discuss in a free country. And in a truly free country is very high ratings from the government does not happen. If the government's approval rating is too high, believe me, you're dealing with a dictatorship. All dictators always a high level of support - to the point where their revolution sweeps. I would have thought that the current Russian polls rather not talk about the level of popularity of Putin, and the remainder of the level of freedom in Russia. I'll explain what I mean. After the occupation of the Crimea to Russia conducted a survey by region, who are "for" Putin. Least supported Putin in Moscow, but it seems to sixty percent. Most in Chechnya - 97%. Conclusion: The level of freedom of speech in Moscow, 40% and 3% in Chechnya. In the rest of Russia - between three and forty percent.

By the support of Putin's popularity ratings have no relationship, especially as the population of Russia influence government policy has not. Elections in Russia long ago became a fiction; Parliament supports throughout government and became a formal instrument of power, just like the Supreme Soviet of the USSR at the time. The survey was conducted themselves only as directed above - this is another propaganda tool in the hands of the Kremlin, and only.

Russia is not one of those countries where people are satisfied with the revolution every ten years. Russian citizens are not inclined to throw off their government. Many (often people are smart, educated and active) refer to Russia as a platform for making money. We make money no problem man to reform Russia, especially because in this way too much risk. The main thing that the power to punish a business can take, as a businessman to plant for economic crimes, as Khodorkovsky. Simply continue to earn money, while give, but "if something happens to go." So many people think, although not many admit it. Of course, there is a percentage of people who genuinely supports Putin. But it's either fascists or nationalists, or people who have passed through a series of past wars - sick of war. In Germany, the percentage of support for Hitler was quite high. Germans is not much help since 1939. The specter of war in Russia today, few people care about and few people are scary. So was the war in Chechnya - in Russia it is in general no one has touched. Crimea captured - also without negative consequences. Russians continue to live their lives. In the minds of people in Russia do not start any shifts up until the war starts deteriorating real life. Yet imposed sanctions against Russia are slow and weak, but they gradually begin to work. There is more than all Europe will help Putin himself, because he himself needed to impose sanctions against the people. He must seize the initiative, insurance against global international isolation. So now it will be phased retaliatory sanctions, pretending that punishes European and American business. Another indication of the preparation for the great war - the purchase of Russian gold increase gold reserves. This is the standard operation of the central bank of the country before the start of hostilities.

- Is there a threat to the division of Europe in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict?

- Any dictator keeps on "layout" - all you need to bleed, even within their team. This is done on a personal, national and continental level. Putin hoped to dissolve the United States and Europe, and then find fault line even in Europe itself. This is an important task, but, in my opinion, it is not feasible. Not even because Europe is united in the EU and will adhere to the general policy, but because it actually has not happened. This could only happen at the beginning of the conflict. There are countries which are less affected by the break with Russia; someone will suffer more. But to assume that this will stop the sanctions properly. Germany depends on Russian gas supplies to Russia and the machine. And, of course, the Germans were not interested in the suspension of trading. But while Germany suffered most as a result of two world wars, which she initiated and lost. Germany knows better than anyone what a dictator in European power and what it can cause. Yes, the German business scared sanctions against Russia. All business now scared. But what happens in March 2014 - is not about the money. Everything that makes Putin - not about the money. It's about the glory as Putin understands it; about empire, as he sees it; about the history and geopolitics, as he feels them. This is another level of world problems. Period ended making money for everyone. There comes a period of accumulated waste of resources. The quiet operation of market mechanisms, to rebuild for years already broken.

- Who will win in this war?

- We know what the outcome of the previous two world wars in Europe: the complete ruin and destruction. This applies to the losers and winners. Even the UK has suffered, not only in terms of loss of life. After the First World War broke continental empire. After the second - to the east and west were divided Germany and Europe. It is difficult to talk about the winners in such a war. United States emerged from the war a world power, and since then against their will were involved in all the world's problems. Can this be considered a win, a difficult question. Kindle today Putin war - European. In Europe, all suffer from it, especially Russia.

By Material: Sled.net.ua