Forthcoming elections in three German states will determine Angela Merkel's future

Forthcoming elections in three German states will determine Angela Merkel's future. (Sputnik).

Forthcoming elections in three German states will determine if Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is still strong or will be supplanted by a new leader.

Europe's "Iron Lady" has survived many crises since 2005, but now that she is blamed for letting millions of migrants enter the country, German citizens may decide she is no longer the leader they want, journalists Peter Foster and Justin Huggler wrote for The Telegraph.

Germany's economic policies cannot end the wars in the Middle East and cannot force Turkey to do a better job in safeguarding its borders. Germany has also failed to persuade other EU states to take a larger share in accepting refugees.

"Mrs Merkel's CDU [Christian Democratic Party] does not have to win the state votes on March 13, but if it does not make a respectable showing the party could panic and look to appoint a new leader in time for next year's national elections," the journalists suggested.

They outlined three possible scenarios for the outcome of the election.

The "doomsday" scenario presupposes that if the CDU does poorly in the upcoming elections, Merkel will maintain her refugee policy, but there will be calls within the party for another leader. There is no clear replacement for Merkel, but it has been noted that she herself, when first elected, came "out of nowhere".

"If Mrs Merkel falls, the repercussions will be felt far beyond Germany's borders", the journalists noted. She has been a dominant political force in the region for several years, and there is no guarantee that a different Chancellor will be able to sustain that level of influence.

Another scenario states that, if the party does badly in the elections but takes prompt action to change its policies to serve the popular vote, it can hold onto its leadership position.

In a best-case scenario Merkel's party will win and she will have the mandate to continue her policies. Regardless of the projected outcome next month, Merkel would have to work to achieve the same results in the September elections.

Greece agrees to recognize Turkey as ‘safe’ country meaning it can turn back refugees.

Greece agrees to recognize Turkey as ‘safe’ country meaning it can turn back refugees. (ekathimerini).

Greek authorities agreed on Friday to recognize Turkey as a “safe third country,” which means migrants for whom Turkey is a country of transit, not of origin, can be returned there.

The decision was announced after a meeting in Athens between Greek Interior Minister Panayiotis Kouroublis and his French and German counterparts, Bernard Cazeneuve and Thomas de Maiziere.

“This is a major step for Greece and we are taking it because we want to show our willingness to find a comprehensive way to address the problem,” said Kouroublis after the meeting. European officials said the shift in Greek policy was a “good start.”

The goal “cannot just be to register arriving refugees and to relocate them equitably [but above all] to reduce the flow,” said de Maiziere at the end of his two-day visit. He added that Germany is sending 100 police officers and two coast guard vessels to Greece.

Cazeneuve said he is in favor of the European Union border agency taking on greater responsibility. Data from the passport-free Schengen zone must include “terrorism [records] by police and intelligence agencies, and conditions must be created to link the Schengen system to other criminal records,” Cazeneuve told reporters.

Greece is under pressure to complete the creation of more “hot spots” for registering refugees and migrants later this month. Athens has enlisted the help of the army to carry out the work.

As of yesterday, 94 prefabricated structures had been delivered to the site in Chios and 87 on Leros. Construction work was under way on Samos, where an old army firing range is being converted.

On Kos, riot police who had been sent to the island from Athens fired tear gas to deter some 100 locals who tried to force their way into a disused army camp that is being turned into a hot spot.

European Union sources told Kathimerini they are hopeful that at least three of the five centers will be ready in the next few days given that the army is now coordinating the work and humanitarian aid has arrived from other EU member states.  Hmmm........Return to sender.

EU Border Office Chief on Refugee Crisis: 'We Should Have No Illusions, numbers are not coming down'.

EU Border Office Chief on Refugee Crisis: 'We Should Have No Illusions, numbers are not coming down'. (Spiegel).

SPIEGEL: Mr. Leggeri, Turkey is seen as playing a crucial role in handling the refugee crisis. Is the government there doing enough to limit the influx of migrants to Europe?

Leggeri: No. Taking care of 2 million Syrian refugees is, of course, a burden for Turkey. I appreciate that. But if Ankara is going to demand sweeping concessions, such as a relaxation of visa requirements for its citizens, we Europeans should be able to expect more in return in the form of more stringent border controls.

SPIEGEL: As the head of the EU border agency Frontex, what do you have in mind?

Leggeri: Turkey should make life more difficult for the human-traffickers. These are organized criminals we're talking about. The Turkish police have the responsibility and the opportunity to put them out of business. At the very least, we expect Turkey to provide us with information: How many refugees can we expect? And where are they going to arrive?


SPIEGEL: At the moment, the number of refugees is decreasing slightly compared to last autumn. Why?


Leggeri: This seems to be due to the winter weather. We won't be able to say whether cooperating with Turkey has already begun to show positive results for at least another few weeks. Despite the bad weather, between 2,000-3,000 people are arriving in Greece each day.

SPIEGEL: The UN refugee agency estimates that a million refugees could try and reach the EU via Turkey this year. Is this realistic?

Leggeri: Yes. We should have no illusions: As long as the bloodshed in Syria continues, refugees will keep coming. Even if all we're able to do is keep the numbers stable, that would already be an achievement.

SPIEGEL: Three thousand people per day for 365 days ...

Leggeri: ... is still 1 million refugees a year. I'm familiar with the math.

SPIEGEL: Amnesty International reports that Turkey has sent hundreds of Syrian and Iraqi refugees back to their home countries.


Leggeri: I can't confirm those reports. One thing is clear: Turkey is a candidate country for EU accession. It is required to offer sanctuary to people in need of protection. It may not simply send them back into danger. Read the full story here.

Source.

French Defense Minister Says 'Major Risk' of IS Crossing in to Europe with Libya Refugees.

French Defense Minister Says 'Major Risk' of IS Crossing in to Europe with Libya Refugees. (Naharnet).

Islamic State fighters hiding among refugees traveling from Libya to Italy pose a "major risk" to Europe, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Sunday. 

Le Drian said there was an "urgent" need for a political solution to the crisis in Libya to help combat the spread of the Islamic State group (IS), which now has several thousand fighters in the North African country.

"Daesh is installing itself," Le Drian told French TV, using the Arabic acronym for the IS group. 

"I have been very worried about Libya since September 2014. They are there, nearly 300 kilometers from the coast, and they are spreading."

He said that put IS only 350 kilometers from the Italian island of Lampedusa, the arrival point for thousands of migrants and refugees leaving Libya for the European Union.

"When good weather comes to the Mediterranean, there is the risk that (IS fighters) could make the crossing, mixing in with refugees. It's a major risk," said Le Drian. Read the full story here.

Bulgarian PM Borisov Calls for Immediately Closing EU's External Borders.

Bulgarian PM Borisov Calls for Immediately Closing EU's External Borders. (Novinite).

Bulgarian Prime Minister called on Friday for an immediate closure of the external borders of the EU in view of the ongoing migrant crisis.

Borisov said this during a joint briefing with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban who arrived on a visit to Bulgaria on Thursday evening.

The Bulgarian prime minister noted that European leaders have failed to reach consensus on this issue at several meetings of the European Council.

He expressed hope that at the forthcoming meetings of the European Council the European leaders will be fairer towards the migrants.

In his words, Europe could no longer sustain the refugee influx.

According to him, the return of migrants once they have reached western Europe was even more inhumane than halting them at the external borders.

Borisov was convinced that if earlier calls for closing the external borders had been heard half a year ago, there would have been need for fewer migrants to be returned.

He was firm that the stance of the EU should take into account the common European solidarity as no single state should be left on its own to deal with all the refugees.

During the press conference, Orban called on the EU to admit the success of Bulgaria in dealing with the refugee crisis and to offer the country membership to the Schengen Area.

Macedonia 'Closes Border with Greece to Migrants'

Macedonia 'Closes Border with Greece to Migrants'. (Novinete).

Greece says Macedonia is no longer allowing migrants to enter the country on their way to Central and Western Europe, ABC news reports.

Skopje officials did not immediately comment, but Athens maintains the border has effectively been sealed off to migrants for several days.

Macedonia announced in November it would only let in people seeking asylum from countries where conflict is raging, such as Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The step was announced as a result of similar decisions from Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia.

Last week, some EU member states' governments suggested the EU should ask Bulgaria and Macedonia, Greece's northern neighbors, for more cooperation if Athens fails to provide the border controls needed to curb the flow of migrants into Europe.

Dutch plan for EU ‘refugee swap’ with Turkey.

Dutch plan for EU ‘refugee swap’ with Turkey. (EUObserver).

The Netherlands is gathering support among a group of EU countries for a plan to accept “a couple hundred thousand refugees per year” from Turkey, in exchange for sending back all illegal migrants that arrive in Greece.

The plan was revealed on Thursday (28 January) by Dutch social-democrat leader Diederik Samsom in an interview with newspaper De Volkskrant, and has the support of prime minister Mark Rutte.

The Netherlands currently holds the rotating six-month EU presidency.

“I think there is a realistic chance that by this spring a leading group of EU countries will have an agreement with Turkey about a legal migration route for a couple hundred thousand refugees per year, in exchange for [Turkey] accepting back everyone who enters [the EU] via Greece,” Samsom told the paper's Brussels correspondent.

The idea is to distribute "between 150,000 and 250,000" refugees among EU countries who voluntarily take part in the plan. #BS  ----->

A first meeting about the plan took place in December, with Rutte, German chancellor Angela Merkel, Swedish prime minister Stefan Loefven, and Dutch EU commissioner Frans Timmermans.





Samsom noted he has been speaking “intensively” with Germany, Austria, and Sweden “because they have social-democrats in the government”.

“In the worst case scenario, only these countries plus a few like France, Spain, and Portugal take part,” he said, adding that France has been “dodging” the issue.

“When I call prime minister Valls [about the plan], he says 'interessant, tres interessant', and hopes I don't ask any further.”

While under the Samsom plan reluctant member states would not be forced to take up any refugees, they would have to pitch in financially. The plan, which he described as “the permanent [EU] asylum system”, would be funded from the EU budget.

For the plan to work and for illegal migrants to be sent back to Turkey “by return ferry”, Turkey would have to be considered a safe country by United Nations criteria. Hmmmm.......Why do i have the feeling that the EU population is watching a Kabuki theater performance? Read more here.

#Turkey PM @Ahmet_Davutoglu tells Turkish businesspeople in #Germany that hundreds of thousands of #Syrians will likely come to Germany

— Abdullah Bozkurt (@abdbozkurt) January 23, 2016

EU ministers to meet in Amsterdam to discuss reintroducing national border controls for two years.

EU ministers to meet in Amsterdam to discuss reintroducing national border controls for two years. (RT).

EU ministers will meet in Amsterdam to discuss steps to allow states to reintroduce national border controls for two years, possibly spelling the end for the 30-year-old Schengen Agreement allowing passport-free travel across 26 states, according to reports.

The refugee crisis has pushed Europe to “a make or break” point, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, giving rise to fresh fears that the Schengen agreement – currently cracking under the strain of migrants arriving en masse from the Middle East, Africa and beyond – could be reviewed.

The influx of refugees has greatly increased the pressure on Schengen, and when asked whether it was at risk, Lagarde replied: “Yes, I think so.”

Under the Schengen Agreement, temporary border checks may be extended for a total period of two years. For the extension to happen, EU leaders have to agree that "persistent serious deficiencies" in controls at Schengen's external borders put its very existence in jeopardy.

"We have not yet launched this mechanism ... (but) this possibility exists, it is there and the Commission is prepared to use it if need be," a spokeswoman for the EU's executive said of the potential extension on Friday, Reuters reported. The Commission would then have to recommend the extension and the European Council approve it by a qualified majority.

So far six Schengen members (Germany, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark and non-EU member Norway) have been forced to resort to reinstating temporary border checks in the passport-free area - measures which can stay in place until May. Read the full story here.

Stopping the Flow: Berlin searching a for Back-Up Plan in Refugee Crisis.

Stopping the Flow: Berlin searching a for Back-Up Plan in Refugee Crisis. (Spiegel).

Sometimes, the greatest changes are announced very quietly. Each Thursday, representatives of the countries located along the refugee route that crosses the Balkans meet by video conference for a briefing on the current situation. Are there sufficient accommodations in Greece? Are there enough heated tents in Croatia. There are numerous organizational and administrative questions, and the whole affair has an almost routine feel to it.

Participating in the group on Germany's behalf is Uwe Corsepius, Chancellor Angela Merkel's European policy advisor. Last Thursday, he and his colleagues from Austria and Slovenia informed the others first talks were being conducted about, among other things, finding ways to better control Slovenia's borders.

That may not sound like much, but was nothing less than an announcement that Germany was making a strategic shift in its refugee policies. Merkel has been insistent that a European solution needs to be found for the crisis. But asked what this "European solution" might look like, officials are giving a different answer these days than they used to.

Previously, the official German position had been that refugees should be stopped at the European Union's external borders in Greece and Italy. The plan had been to open up large initial reception centers, so-called hotspots, where refugees would be registered and a decision made on their possible redistribution to other European countries. Merkel says she is still pursuing this plan.


The problem is that the opening of the hotspots is moving ahead extremely slowly. Greece in particular, the country through which most refugees are currently traveling to the European Union, isn't adhering to its obligations. It's one of the main reasons the number of refugees has not dropped in Germany to a degree that might reduce political pressure on Merkel.

The idea foresees Slovenia playing a key role -- as the first country after Greece along the West Balkan route that has an external Schengen border. The plan would envision stopping all migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Africa there. Read the full story here.