Turkey and Israel about to change the Cyprus gas game?

Turkey and Israel about to change the Cyprus gas game?(CM).By Stefanos Evripidou.

THE US-brokered Israeli apology to Turkey has opened the door to the resumption of close relations between the two former allies and raised the prospect of energy collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean, raising questions as to the potential impact on Cyprus’ own gas plans.

The next day, Erdogan said Israel’s apology highlighted Turkey’s growing regional clout.“We are entering a new period in both Turkey and the region,” said Erdogan, who plans to visit the Palestinian territories, including the Gaza Strip, next month.“We are at the beginning of a process of elevating Turkey to a position so that it will again have a say, initiative and power, as it did in the past,” he said.

Netanyahu, in a post on his Facebook page on Saturday, said deteriorating circumstances in Syria were a main factor behind his decision to resolve the crisis with Turkey. According to Reuters, a source close to Netanyahu said the new chapter in Turkish-Israeli relations could be very important for the future not just regarding what happens in Syria but also developments in Iran. Apart from removing Turkish objections to Israeli participation in NATO exercises, the prospect of reconciliation has also “removed a big obstacle to collaboration over the development of strategic energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean”, reported the Financial Times (FT) yesterday.

The London-based paper noted that improved ties between Turkey and Israel could also affect Cyprus should greater energy cooperation result in Nicosia getting sidelined. A Turkish official told FT that reconciliation also made a possible gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey a “much more viable” idea.

According to FT, Noble Energy and Delek Energy, who are the main investors in Israel’s large offshore natural gas fields- as well as partners in Cyprus’ Block 12- have in recent weeks “sounded out possible customers in energy-hungry Turkey”. The paper noted that until now, the private sector was eager to proceed with a possible pipeline between Israel and Turkey but that the political rift between the two governments did not allow progress to be made.

With the first step in reconciliation taken, will further collaboration in the hydrocarbons sector leave Cyprus with fewer choices as to where and how to export its own gas?

Israeli deputy ambassador to Cyprus Shani Cooper said yesterday: “The normalisation of relations between Turkey and Israel was an important bilateral step but it will not affect any multilateral, trilateral or bilateral relations between Israel and other countries. Israel will maintain its close relations with Cyprus, and continue strengthening them as we have done the last few years.”

Matthew Bryza, a former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, was quoted by FT saying that without Israel to provide economies of scale, “in the short term the Cypriots lose their ability to do a pipeline or an LNG (liquefied natural gas) option”, adding that in the longer run a Cypriot pipeline to Turkey would make most commercial sense.

However, speaking to the Cyprus Mail, an industry insider argued that a pipeline from Cyprus to Turkey was not so obviously beneficial, even if the financial savings appeared attractive at first glance. “You’ve got a 25-year project. Are you comfortable having Turkey being your best friend for that length of time? With LNG, you can change your customers, do whatever you want. With a pipeline to Turkey, you only can sell to Europe, and the pipeline to Europe is too far,” he said.

The source argued that LNG was the best option for Cyprus: “The key is to find enough gas to make it commercial. And if you can add gas from the nearby Israeli gas field Leviathan, even better.”

A Cypriot diplomatic source told the Cyprus Mail that reports suggest Turkey is seriously considering a pipeline between Israel and Ceyhan. “This could very well be a game-changer. There is much more (to the apology) than meets the eye,” he said.

“It is naive not to think that they will put everything in one basket in the future: the Cyprus problem, hydrocarbons, Erdogan’s water pipeline project. All of this will come to a head,” he said, adding, “With Cyprus’ gas reserves, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but let’s hope it’s not a train.”

Regarding a pipeline between Israel and Turkey, another diplomatic source reminded that Israel has yet to even take a decision on whether it will allow the export of natural gas. The latest opinion of an advisory committee of the Israeli government is that if gas should be exported, it will have to go through Israel first.

The industry source argued that it was too early to tell whether a Turkey-Israel pipeline was even feasible both politically and physically. One has to take into consideration the route that any pipeline would take. Will it pass through Lebanese and Syrian waters or go around them by cutting through Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)?

“We’re talking about going up against horrendous engineering challenges. And it’s not just about building it, but maintaining it. It’s doable but it won’t be cheap,” said the source.

Should Israel and Turkey decide to go ahead with the pipeline, the industry source argued this would not affect Cyprus’ decision to build an LNG plant initially with one train to accept gas via pipeline from Noble’s Block 12 A-structure, which has an estimated 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The thinking behind the ‘stand alone’ project is to get gas from the Aphrodite field in Block 12 to the LNG plant earmarked for construction at Vassilikos by 2019. “This is an aggressive, challenging but achievable target,” said the source.

Should more gas be found in other parts of Block 12, or in the blocks recently acquired by French, Italian and South Korean companies, Total, ENI and KOGAS, then more trains will be built at the LNG plant to take in more gas. The current thinking is that Cyprus’ EEZ has plenty of potential for more hydrocarbon discoveries.

The source argued that a pipeline from Block 12 to Vassilikos and the operation of an LNG plant are not dependant on the inclusion of Israeli gas from the nearby Leviathan gas fields. In any case, should Israel agree to export its gas, it would have to build its own pipeline to Vassilikos as the depth of water in the region does not allow a big enough pipeline to be built to cover the needs of both Aphrodite and Leviathan fields.

Asked whether the current economic crisis in Cyprus could affect energy development, the source said only if the government should take its foot off the pedal, though at the moment, it “seems willing to proceed expeditiously”.

He added: .“The whole project could provide very robust and meaningful amounts of money that would be coming into the country” Regarding press reports that Russia could participate in the financing of an LNG plant, the source said Russia would then have a say over the tariff charged to gas companies using the plant.

“If the Russians want to make a killing they will have very high fees, making LNG very costly, and as a result, Cyprus won’t make a big profit. If they’re reasonable, it could work. But you don’t want someone not totally trustworthy having their hand around your throat.”Hmmmmm.......The Chuck Hagel Bankster Connections. Read the full story here.

Pres Obama Welcomes Hagel's Confirmation.

 “I’m a United States senator,” Hagel declared in 2008. “I’m not an Israeli senator.”

Pres Obama Welcomes Hagel's Confirmation.HT: IsraelMatzav.(INN).

President Barack Obama welcomed on Tuesday the confirmation of Chuck Hagel as secretary of defense, saying it allowed him to "have the defense secretary our nation needs and the leader our troops deserve.""I will be counting on Chuck's judgment and counsel as we end the war in Afghanistan, bring our troops home, stay ready to meet the threats of our time and keep our military the finest fighting force in the world," said Obama.

Chuck Hagel has been confirmed as Secretary of Defense 58-41 in a mostly party line vote. The previous record high for no votes on a confirmed Secretary of Defense was 11.
William Kristol of the Emergency Committee for Israel has issued the following statement. "We fought the good fight, and are proud to have done so. We salute all those -- Democrats and Republicans, Christians and Jews -- who joined with us in the effort to secure a better Secretary of Defense. We are heartened that the overwhelming majority of senators from one of the two major parties voted against confirming Mr. Hagel. We take some comfort in Mr. Hagel's confirmation conversions on the issues of Israel and Iran, and do believe that, as a result of this battle, Mr. Hagel will be less free to pursue dangerous policies at the Defense Department and less inclined to advocate them within the administration. And since hope is an American characteristic and a Jewish virtue, we will also say that we hope Mr. Hagel will rise to the occasion and successfully discharge his weighty duties. In this task we wish him well.
"This battle against Chuck Hagel is over. The fight for a principled, pro-Israel foreign policy goes on.
The campaign against Hagel's nomination failed precisely because no one -- none of the Jewish organizations that attacked him or his adversaries on the Senate Armed Services Committee -- had the moral courage to call Hagel what he is: a political anti-Semite. Lindsey Graham came closest, but was loath to pull the trigger."Hmmmm......It's a very sad day for Israel.Read the full story here.

Republican Warns: Vote for Hagel and be Held Accountable

Republican Warns: Vote for Hagel and be Held Accountable.(INN).Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) has warned fellow Republicans they will be held accountable if they vote to end an ongoing Senate filibuster over the nomination of embattled secretary of defense nominee Chuck Hagel, the Washington Free Beacon reports.
“Make no mistake; a vote for cloture is a vote to confirm Sen. Hagel as Secretary of Defense,” Inhofe wrote in a strongly worded letter to his Republican colleagues on Thursday, according to the Free Beacon.
Several of the Republicans have indicated in recent days that they would vote to end debate on Hagel’s nomination, paving the way for his confirmation.
Hagel’s nomination stalled last week when Senate Democrats could not muster the 60-votes needed to end a Republican filibuster of the nomination.
If just a few Republicans defect on Tuesday when the Senate resumes consideration of the nomination, Hagel is assured approval.
In the letter Inhofe warns his Republican colleagues that a vote for Hagel would imperil the nation’s security.
“We should not let claims about presidential prerogatives and precedents dissuade us from carefully assessing the judgment and positions of this nominee. The president can do better,” he added.
“Remember,” Inhofe wrote, “our nation’s security is at stake as you cast your vote on Tuesday.”
Inhofe’s missive appears aimed at several key Republicans who have expressed support for Hagel.
Three Republicans have said they would vote for Hagel’s confirmation (Sens. Richard Shelby, Mike Johanns, and Thad Cochran); a handful of other Republicans have said they will vote to advance the nomination to a full vote even if they do not vote for Hagel, which in effect would assure his confirmation.
Republican Sens. Deb Fischer (Neb.), Lisa Murkowski (Ala.), and Susan Collins (Maine) have said they will vote for cloture.
Inhofe rebuts Democratic claims that the delay of Hagel’s nomination has been an unprecedented and warranted move.
“I know the Senate had traditionally deferred to the president on cabinet nominations. However, our nation is at war,” Inhofe wrote. “The Senate must insist on confirming only the most effective leaders, not only to keep our nation safe, but to ensure our service members receive the leadership they deserve.”
“Unfortunately, I firmly believe Sen. Hagel’s well-established record does not meet this essential requirement for confirmation,” the letter states.
Inhofe goes on to outline his top concerns regarding Hagel, which include his controversial comments about Israel, his desire to cut the nation’s nuclear arsenal, and his desire to increase outreach to Iran.
The Republican Jewish Coalition, along with countless others, has cited a long list of Hagel’s anti-Israel policies, asserting that his nomination would “be a slap in the face for every American who is concerned about the safety of Israel.”Read the full story here.

"Surprised ...or NOT" - White House rejects GOP senators’ request to withdraw Hagel.

Picture HT: IsraelMatzav

"Surprised ...or NOT" - White House rejects GOP senators’ request to withdraw Hagel.(Yahoo).The White House on Thursday afternoon flatly rejected a request made earlier in the day by 15 Republican senators to withdraw Chuck Hagel's nomination as defense secretary.
"This waste of time is not just meaningless political posturing—because we firmly believe that Sen. Hagel will be confirmed—but the waste of time is of consequence," White House press secretary Jay Carney said during Thursday's briefing. His comments came in response to a question about the Republicans' letter.
Carney added that Hagel, a Republican former Nebraska senator and two-time Purple Heart recipient, also received a huge boost on Thursday when Republican Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama announced his support for Hagel's nomination.
"He's probably as good as we're going to get," Shelby told the Decatur Daily of Hagel, who now appears to have the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster—barring some last-minute surprise.
Carney also said at Thursday's briefing that several Republican senators over the weekend had voiced support during TV interviews for an up-or-down vote on Hagel, and that Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah had come out against a Republican filibuster.
"A clear majority in the U.S. Senate supports Sen. Hagel's confirmation, so today's actions ... run against both the majority will of the Senate and against our national interest," Carney said.
The White House last week denounced Senate Republicans’ unprecedented filibuster of the Hagel nomination (no Cabinet-level post dealing with national security had ever before faced a successful one). In the Republicans' letter on Thursday, the lawmakers argued in effect that this was Hagel's own fault.
“It would be unprecedented for a Secretary of Defense to take office without a broad base of bipartisan support and confidence needed to serve effectively in this critical position,” the senators, led by John Cornyn of Texas, said in the message to Obama. "While we respect Senator Hagel’s honorable military service, in the interest of national security, we respectfully request that you withdraw his nomination."
In addition to Rubio and Cornyn, Republican Sens. James Inhofe, Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker, David Vitter, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Pat Toomey, Dan Coats, Ron Johnson, James Risch, John Barrasso, Tom Coburn and Tim Scott signed the letter. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but it has flatly dismissed similar calls in the past, noting that Hagel has more than the 51 votes needed for confirmation.
In the letter the senators also denounced Hagel’s “erratic record and myriad conversions on key national security issues” and openly doubted “his basic competence to meet the substantial demand of the office.” They charged that he “proclaimed the legitimacy of the current regime in Tehran.” During his wobbly confirmation hearing performance, Hagel had said America’s allies consider that regime “an elected, legitimate government, whether we agree or not.”
They also accused Hagel of showing “a seeming ambivalence about whether containment or prevention is the best approach, which gives us great concern.”Hmmmm.......Of course the White House will reject the plea, they're 'The staunchest ally of Israel".Read the full story here.

Obama may not have given up his plan to nominate Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense.

Obama may not have given up his plan to nominate Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense.(Breitbart).By Joel. B. Pollak. Rumor has it that President Barack Obama may not have given up his plan to nominate former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) as Secretary of Defense after all, and that Hagel’s nomination may in fact be imminent. The fact that Hagel is even still under consideration is a signal that Obama is not worried about Hagel’s weakness on Israel, his reluctance to confront Iran, and his enthusiasm for a smaller military and weaker America.
The main reason that President Obama wants to choose Hagel for Defense is probably the same reason he nominated Ray LaHood to be Secretary of Transportation in his first term: it is politically clever to have a Republican in charge of a policy that Republicans dislike.
Yet Obama may also find Hagel to be an attractive choice because of his ideological beliefs. Hagel not only opposed President George W. Bush over the Iraq War (in its later stages), but also opposed fellow Republicans over Iran and over support for Israel. These are beliefs that Democrats who take national security seriously--even those who opposed the Iraq War, like Alan Dershowitz--also find troubling. Dershowitz writes:

Hagel’s appointment would send another disturbing message to the bigots of Tehran, who believe that the only people calling for military action against Iran are “the Jews.” Hagel speaks their language. He is the only mainstream American politician to talk openly about how “the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people.”...Even if Hagel were to be nominated and then not confirmed by the Senate, the Iranians would get the wrong message.

Dershowitz does not say--but surely knows--that Hagel’s appointment would also tend to validate conservative criticisms of Obama’s foreign policy, in particular the notion that underneath the platitudes and routine security cooperation Obama harbors a skepticism about Israel and a desire to appease Iran. This might very well be what Obama meant when he promised Russia’s leaders more “flexibility” after he had won re-election.Hmmmm....."Staunchest Ally Of Israel" nominates only Anti Israel candidates.Read the full story here.

"Israel's Staunchest Ally?" - President Obama is considering former Senator Chuck Hagel for a top national security post, likely Secretary of Defense.

"Israel's Staunchest Ally?" - President Obama is considering former Senator Chuck Hagel for a top national security post, likely Secretary of Defense.(Rjchq).A report from Reuters has now confirmed what Foreign Policy‘s Josh Rogin had discovered last month.Rogin reported that Hagel was “being vetted.”
Presumably, that vetting process includes consultations with a range of interested parties. And presumably, that includes pro-Israel advocates. Let’s hope that anyone on the receiving end of such a query responds forthrightly that for the President to elevate Hagel to a position of trust would be construed as a gesture of indifference – if not outright contempt – toward Jewish Americans and every American who supports a strong U.S.-Israel alliance.
In the past, Jewish leaders have made their concerns about Hagel clear. The last time President Obama had to pick a new Defense Secretary, in 2010, a report by the Washington Jewish Week included red-flag quotes from numerous community sources – including pro-Obama Democrats:
D.C. Jewish community professional who is in contact with the White House: “I have to think that the mainstream Jewish communal organizations would have meaningful problems with it”
Washington PAC Director and former AIPAC Executive Director Morris Amitay: “Hagel would be in a position to reinforce the worst aspects of the administration’s current Middle East policies, which would be very dangerous for Israel”

A longtime Jewish political operative: “Given his long, questionable record and the clear problems his nomination would cause — not to mention the volumes of criticism by other Democrats for his rank hostility to Israel — it is hard to believe that the White House would want to make such a risky choice at precisely the time we are asking the Israeli to ‘trust us’ on Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

Democratic operative who campaigned for Obama in the Jewish community: “If he was in fact appointed, I would find his appointment difficult to reconcile with my views of the administration.”
In fact, some of the most forceful criticism of Hagel’s record on issues of concern to American Jews and other pro-Israel Americans has come from the National Jewish Democratic Council, “the national voice of Jewish Democrats.”
When Hagel considered running for President in 2007, NJDC signaled that they planned to call him to account for a record that included numerous departures from the pro-Israel mainstream. To wit:

• In August 2006, Hagel was one of only 12 Senators who refused to write the EU asking them to declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization.
• In October 2000, Hagel was one of only 4 Senators who refused to sign a Senate letter in support of Israel.
• In November 2001, Hagel was one of only 11 Senators who refused to sign a letter urging President Bush not to meet with the late Yasir Arafat until his forces ended the violence against Israel.
• In December 2005, Hagel was one of only 27 who refused to sign a letter to President Bush to pressure the Palestinian Authority to ban terrorist groups from participating in Palestinian legislative elections.
• In June 2004, Hagel refused to sign a letter urging President Bush to highlight Iran’s nuclear program at the G-8 summit.

And here’s what the anti-Israel group, CAIR wrote in praise of Hagel: “Potential presidential candidates for 2008, like Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Joe Biden and Newt Gingrich, were falling all over themselves to express their support for Israel. The only exception to that rule was Senator Chuck Hagel…” [Council on American-Islamic Relations, 8/28/06]
And Hagel’s history of pronouncements and other actions is, if anything, even more alarming. Hagel wrote in a 2002 op-ed in the Washington Post that the President Bush erred in refusing to meet with Yassir Arafat and that Arafat and his support for terrorism against Israel were not the real issue.
He wrote: “…we cannot hold the Middle East peace process hostage by making Yasser Arafat the issue…. Palestinian reformers cannot promote a democratic agenda for change while both the Israeli military occupation and settlement activity continue.”
With respect to Iran, Hagel has argued that, “Whether we like it or not, there will be no peace or stability in the Middle East without Iran’s participation.” And he has explicitly ruled out the military option Obama has supposedly ‘kept on the table.
In a devastating 2010 post on Commentary’s blog, Jennifer Rubin called attention to more problematic items in Hagel’s record.

• “In 2006, when Hezbollah’s attacks provoked Israeli retaliation and the war in Lebanon, Hagel screeched for the president to demand an immediate cease-fire, arguing it was essential in order to ‘enhance America’s image and give us the trust and credibility to lead a lasting and sustained peace effort in the Middle East.’ Our credibility, in his eyes, depends on the United States’s preventing Israel from defending itself.”
• In 2009, “Hagel signed a letter urging Obama to open direct negotiations with Hamas…”
• “In 2007 Hagel wanted to open direct, unconditional talks with Iran. (“It could create a historic new dynamic in US-Iran relations, in part forcing the Iranians to react to the possibility of better relations with the West.”).
• In 2007 he voted against designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.”
• In 2008, Hagel single-handedly killed an Iran sanctions bill in the waning days of the congressional session. (The bill in question was actually sponsored by then-Senator Obama!)

Rubin went on to quote an account of an incident that suggested Hagel’s stances reflected not just substantive disagreements – but also more visceral sentiment:
In an interview quoted in Aaron David Miller’s book on the peace process called The Much Too Promised Land, Hagel said: “The political reality is that … the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here.”
Hagel then described a meeting he had in New York with a group of supporters of Israel, one of whom suggested Hagel wasn’t supportive enough of Israel.
said he responded: “Let me clear something up here if there’s any doubt in your mind. I’m a United States Senator. I’m not an Israeli senator. I’m a United States Senator. I support Israel. But my first interest is, I take an oath of office to the constitution of the United States. Not to a president, not to a party, not to Israel.”Hmmmm......Obama: "But I’m also mindful of the proverb, “A man is judged by his deeds, not his words.” So if you want to know where my heart lies, look no further than what I have done — to stand up for Israel."Read the full story here.