Turkey Will Either Lose Obama's BFF Erdogan or Democracy.(Aina).By Marc Champion
There are two reasons Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may not survive the current government corruption scandals in Turkey. And if he does, the cost to the "Turkish model" will be enormous.
The first is, well, the corruption charges. An important key to the success of the AK, or Justice and Development, Party that Erdogan helped to create in 2001 lay in its initials: AK means "white" in Turkish, and it can also mean "pure." Turks were sick of the unaccountable corruption of previous governments. The AK Party rode a promise of purity to power.
Suddenly, the AK Party is looking decidedly grubby. Yes, the 89 people who have been detained so far in the corruption and money-laundering probe are all innocent until proven otherwise. And yes, the prosecutors in charge are the same ones who based the so-called Sledgehammer trial against the military on forged documents. Still, the three simultaneous cases that have been initiated, as outlined in the news media, are damaging.
One case, for example, involves about $70 million worth of alleged bribes connected to an Azerbaijani businessman, who is accused of running cash into Russia and trading gold into Iran and is now under arrest. Police found $4.5 million stuffed into shoe boxes at the home of another suspect, Suleyman Aslan, the general manager of state-run Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS.
That's a lot of money even for Jimmy Choos. This is the same bank that was the focus of a May 14 letter, signed by 47 U.S. congressmen, complaining about its gold-swap financing of trade with Iran.
So far, no cabinet ministers have been arrested, but the sons of three have been detained. According to the latest Turkish news media reports, prosecutors have asked parliament to lift the immunity that was granted to their fathers as well as a fourth minister.
All of this makes Erdogan vulnerable. He was already weakened because the coalition of religious conservatives, nationalists and liberals he had built since 2001 had disintegrated by the end of this summer's Gezi Park protests. Now he is also at war with former close allies among his religious conservative base, a group led by faith leader Fetullah Gulen.
Precisely because Erdogan has concentrated power so closely around himself in just a few men, any perception that they are corrupt will immediately infect his personal image and support. This is why Erdogan hasn't fired the four ministers: He says the allegations against them are part of a plot to unseat him. My guess is that he's right, but his response gets to the second reason Erdogan may not survive, despite being far stronger than Gulen: himself.
To make it stick and purge Gulen's supporters from the police force, prosecutor's office and courts, Erdogan will have to crack down in ways that will destroy what remains of Turkey's independent law enforcement institutions and media freedoms. That will deal a huge blow to the so-called Turkish model, the idea that Turkey had cracked the code for implementing genuine democracy in the Muslim world. And that would be a tragedy, because the Turkish model is real and important, if overhyped, oversimplified and already under strain.Hmmm.....As i Always said "SANCTIONS THAT BENEFIT".Read the full story here.
(Marc Champion is a Bloomberg View editorial board member. Follow him on Twitter.)
The first is, well, the corruption charges. An important key to the success of the AK, or Justice and Development, Party that Erdogan helped to create in 2001 lay in its initials: AK means "white" in Turkish, and it can also mean "pure." Turks were sick of the unaccountable corruption of previous governments. The AK Party rode a promise of purity to power.
Suddenly, the AK Party is looking decidedly grubby. Yes, the 89 people who have been detained so far in the corruption and money-laundering probe are all innocent until proven otherwise. And yes, the prosecutors in charge are the same ones who based the so-called Sledgehammer trial against the military on forged documents. Still, the three simultaneous cases that have been initiated, as outlined in the news media, are damaging.
One case, for example, involves about $70 million worth of alleged bribes connected to an Azerbaijani businessman, who is accused of running cash into Russia and trading gold into Iran and is now under arrest. Police found $4.5 million stuffed into shoe boxes at the home of another suspect, Suleyman Aslan, the general manager of state-run Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS.
That's a lot of money even for Jimmy Choos. This is the same bank that was the focus of a May 14 letter, signed by 47 U.S. congressmen, complaining about its gold-swap financing of trade with Iran.
So far, no cabinet ministers have been arrested, but the sons of three have been detained. According to the latest Turkish news media reports, prosecutors have asked parliament to lift the immunity that was granted to their fathers as well as a fourth minister.
All of this makes Erdogan vulnerable. He was already weakened because the coalition of religious conservatives, nationalists and liberals he had built since 2001 had disintegrated by the end of this summer's Gezi Park protests. Now he is also at war with former close allies among his religious conservative base, a group led by faith leader Fetullah Gulen.
Precisely because Erdogan has concentrated power so closely around himself in just a few men, any perception that they are corrupt will immediately infect his personal image and support. This is why Erdogan hasn't fired the four ministers: He says the allegations against them are part of a plot to unseat him. My guess is that he's right, but his response gets to the second reason Erdogan may not survive, despite being far stronger than Gulen: himself.
To make it stick and purge Gulen's supporters from the police force, prosecutor's office and courts, Erdogan will have to crack down in ways that will destroy what remains of Turkey's independent law enforcement institutions and media freedoms. That will deal a huge blow to the so-called Turkish model, the idea that Turkey had cracked the code for implementing genuine democracy in the Muslim world. And that would be a tragedy, because the Turkish model is real and important, if overhyped, oversimplified and already under strain.Hmmm.....As i Always said "SANCTIONS THAT BENEFIT".Read the full story here.
(Marc Champion is a Bloomberg View editorial board member. Follow him on Twitter.)
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