Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Is 'Islamist' Turkey Turning Towards A Full Eurasian Pivot?


Is 'Islamist' Turkey Turning Towards A Full Eurasian Pivot? (SP).

Turkey’s flirtation with purchasing non-NATO-compatible Chinese missiles to complement its planned air defense system indicates that Ankara may be preparing for a grander non-Western policy pivot in the future.

Challenges With the West:

* Eurasian Union Talk:
The West is put off by the fact that Turkey has been talking with Russia about closer cooperation with the Eurasian Union, since if the two are successfully integrated, it would end Brussels’ ability to use the carrot of future EU membership as enticement in getting Ankara to do its bidding.

* ‘Turkish Stream’:
This strategic partnership completely destroyed the EU’s negotiating leverage in using South Stream as a weapon against Russia, and the West is extremely perturbed by Turkey assisting Russia in finding an alternative route for its energy exports.

* SCO Dialogue Partner:
The formal delineation of Turkey’s relationship with the non-Western institutional behemoth opens the way for closer ties to develop between Ankara and its new partners, which could pull the country even further away from its traditional allies with time.

Challenges With Eurasia (Russia):

* The War on Syria:
No matter how close Turkey moves towards Russia and the non-West, it still continues to be the prime external destabilizer in Syria through its role as a terrorist, weapons, and financial conduit supporting illegal regime change against the popular and democratically elected government there.
* NATO Infrastructure:
Even if Turkey decided to do away with the West and abandon NATO (either de-facto or de-jure), it would still have to contend with such obstacles as the US Air Force base in Incirlik (which some reports cite as secretly hosting nuclear weapons), making it unlikely that the US would peacefully abandon its positions without first resorting to some type of political subterfuge (i.e. Color Revolution) to reverse the decision.
* Neo-Ottomanism:
This ideological strain present in the minds of Turkey’s ruling elite (current Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu essentially invented it) means that the country will likely continue to behave in an aggressive manner towards its former sphere of influence in the Mideast and perhaps even the Balkans, thus making it a potential loose cannon that may not be geopolitically dependable as a close Russian partner.

Stepping away from the details and looking at the larger picture, Turkey’s challenges with the West are generally of a soft, asymmetrical nature, whereas the obstacles standing before its relations with Eurasia largely represent harder, more conventional interests.

While the West hasn’t proposed any relevant solutions for overcoming its difficulties with Turkey, Eurasia has, and it takes the form of Chinese missiles. Thus, if Ankara does in fact go ahead with the proposed deal to purchase Beijing’s anti-air armaments, it would represent a more tangible shift away from the West and closer to the Eurasia, which may symbolize the larger overall pivot possibly underway in the country’s geopolitical affairs. Hmmmm........Obama's BFF Erdogan. Read the full story here.

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