Three key areas of disagreement between Moscow and Assad. (
RBTH).
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Russia has been seen as a
loyal ally to Bashar Assad, giving unwavering support to the Syrian
president. Yet, the positions of Moscow and the Syrian regime are far
from identical. Russia advocates a political solution to the crisis,
whereas Assad sees war as the answer.
1. Different goals
The goals of Russia and Assad in the Syrian conflict only partially
coincide, says Vladimir Akhmedov, a senior research associate at the
Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies. “Russia’s
interests consist in preserving a secular regime in Syria, which would
continue cooperating with Moscow,” he says.
As far as Moscow is concerned, it is not essential whether Assad
remains in power or not, whereas for him this issue is crucial, Akhmedov
says. Representatives of the Syrian government
refuse to
discuss the president’s resignation as a prerequisite for the start of a
“transition period” envisaged in the Geneva agreements.
2. Assad is for war
Akhmedov believes that the Syrian president is only paying lip
service to a political settlement. “Assad is a man of war, he intends to
fight to the end," he says. "He is prepared to hold talks only from a
position of strength so that he could impose his terms on the
opposition. To that end, he needs military victories, he needs to regain
control over large chunks of territory.”
This opinion is shared by Arabic scholar, Grigory Kosach, a professor
at the Russian University of Humanities. “Unlike Russia, Assad has
never viewed even the moderate section of the Syrian opposition as a
possible negotiating partner. He has always described them as terrorists
operating on orders from abroad,” says Kosach.
For Russia, a continuation of the war is fraught with the risk of
bigger losses. “We cannot allow an escalation and the involvement of a
large number of Russian servicemen in hostilities. Russia is seeking to
move to a political settlement,” says Vladimir Akhmedov.
3. Attitude to the Kurds
The positions of Moscow and Damascus also differ on the Kurdish issue. When in March 2016, Syrian Kurds
declared the establishment of an autonomous Federation of Northern Syria, Bashar Assad
opposed the
move despite the fact that the Kurds did not demand independence but
just called for a federation. “Damascus is categorically opposed to any
ideas of federalization, fearing that it would result in a breakup of
the country,” says Kosach.
In the standoff between the government and the Kurds, Russia has
opted to remain neutral. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry
Peskov
said: “The internal structure of the Syrian state is a matter for Syrians to decide.”
Kosach points out that Moscow is exercising caution: Syrian Kurds are
an effective ally in the fight against ISIS but Russia has no intention
of ruining relations with Damascus on their account. Nevertheless, in
February 2016, a representative mission of Syrian Kurdistan
opened in Moscow (at an unofficial level, as a non-governmental organization).
According to Akhmedov, if Russia starts putting too much pressure on
Assad, he may easily reject cooperation with Russia and move completely
under Iran’s influence. Iran, unlike Russia, does not consider the
option of regime change in Syria, even theoretically, and unequivocally
supports Assad. This explains, he says, Moscow's reluctance to criticize
the Syrian regime and demonstrate a unity of approach even where there
are some disagreements. Read the full story
here.
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