Introduction
In recent months, Iranian regime spokesmen have conducted a campaign of
statements regarding Iran's intent to enrich uranium for use in nuclear-fueled
ships and submarines – the latter a patently military use of nuclear power.
Regime officials, regime dailies, and websites close to the regime issued no
fewer than 12 such statements, in which they declared Iran's intent to enrich
uranium for nuclear fuel to power both surface sea craft and submarines.
It
should be noted that while nuclear fuel for surface craft entails uranium
enrichment of 50-60%, nuclear-powered submarines require enrichment of 90%,
which is the same level needed for the production of a nuclear bomb.
From its inception, this campaign of statements was meant as a
counterargument to heightened Western sanctions. The regime said that in the
face of sanctions restricting its use of oil, Tehran had no choice but to
develop an alternative source of energy to fuel commercial transport, in order
to maintain its ties with the world.
[1] However, in
what would seem a strategic error, regime spokesmen in their statements
conflated nuclear fuel for surface vessels for use in trade, with nuclear fuel
for submarines which are categorically designated for military use, not civilian
use.
For this reason, after realizing that these statements had exposed Tehran's
intentions to attain the 90% enrichment needed for a nuclear bomb, the Iranian
regime has over the past month issued no further declarations regarding nuclear
submarines. Moreover, several regime spokesmen backed down from the
declarations, stating that Iran has no need at this stage for uranium enriched
beyond 20%, and that the country is nonetheless capable of higher
enrichment.
The following report will review these statements and the attempts to back
down from them:
Statements Declaring Iran's Intent To Enrich High Grade
Uranium For Nuclear Powered Sea Craft
For Ships (Commercial Use, i.e. 50-60% Enrichment):
1. Majlis members prepared a draft bill requiring the government to
design nuclear-powered merchant ships and provide them with nuclear fuel.
[2]
2. Majlis member Allahoradi Dehqani explained, "The government must
enrich uranium to the level needed to provide fuel for these ships, since we
cannot end our trade relations with other countries due to Western sanctions.
Because of sanctions leveled by Western countries against Iran, which include a
ban on providing fuel to Iranian vessels, Iran will replace fossil fuel with
nuclear fuel in order to bypass the need to refuel during long voyages."
[3]
3. Another Majlis member involved in the initiative, Abolghasem Jarareh,
said, "This [nuclear] fuel will undoubtedly [be enriched to a level] higher than
25%- to about 50-60%."
[4]
4. In an analysis published July 16, 2012, the website Mashreg News,
which is close to security circles in Iran, claimed, "Iran's nuclear industry
will have to increase nuclear enrichment to the average level of new marine
reactors, in the range of 50-60%. Considering the new sanctions and pretexts
meant to prevent the transfer of fuel to Iran's oil tankers, this move could be
a substantial step that will bring about the neutralization, uprooting, and
bypassing of the sanctions..."
[5]
5. The head of the Policy-Making Council of Iran's Friday Prayer
Leaders, Hojjatoleslam Seyed Reza Taghavi, warned that Tehran would enrich
uranium to 56% if the pressure on it continued.
[6]
For Submarines (Military Use, i.e. 90%):
6. Iranian Navy Deputy Commander for Technical Affairs Rear Adm. Abbas
Zamini declared, on June 12, 2012, that Iran had taken preliminary steps toward
the construction of super-heavy nuclear-fueled submarines: "
Right now, we are at
the initial phases of manufacturing atomic submarines."
[7]
7. Amir Mousavi, a former advisor to the defense minister, said that
Iran has the necessary knowhow to enrich uranium to the 50-60% level needed to
fuel nuclear ships and submarines, but added that it was prepared to discuss
Western demands if the West recognized its right to develop civilian nuclear
technology.
[8]
8. The Iranian website Fa.irannuc.ir, which is close to Iran's team of
nuclear negotiators, claimed, "Producing [nuclear] fuel for submarines and ships
entails raising the level of enrichment beyond 20%. However, it is extremely
important to note that this is an entirely civilian move, as, according to the
NPT, Iran has the right to enrich [uranium] to any level it wishes, for civilian
use. This [comes as] a direct response to Europe and the U.S.'s recent sanctions
against Iran..."
[9]
9. The daily
Etemad explained that the move would serve Iran in
future nuclear talks: "According to several Western commentators, the issue of
producing nuclear fuel for submarines will enable Iran to pave the proper way
for nuclear progress, as it will [entail] enriching uranium to a grade higher
than 20%. Under these conditions, Iran will benefit from a greater potential for
progress in future talks with the 5+1."
[10]
10. The website Yjc.ir, which is close to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC), claimed that "according to authoritative reports published by
scientific sources,
producing fuel for nuclear submarines or ships necessitates
uranium enrichment to a level of 90%, but technical experts in Tehran say that
not all nuclear submarines require [fuel] enriched to 90%, and that fuel
[enriched] to 52-57% will be sufficient."
[11]
11. A September 5, 2012 article by international affairs expert Mirza Reza
Leilani discussed several scenarios entailing "Iranian opportunities and threats
as part of a coalition with China and Russia." Among them, Leilani raised an
optimistic scenario in which Iran would force Europe to recognize it as a
nuclear state: "According to this scenario,
Iran will emphasize its nuclear
capabilities to enrich uranium to 60% for medical nuclear reactors, and to
enrich uranium to 90% for nuclear submarines. The Fordow [uranium enrichment]
facility will be completed, there will be chaos in the Strait of Hormuz that
will raise oil prices, and this, in turn, will pressure Washington and harm the
world economies. It will cause Europe to officially recognize a nuclear
Iran..."
[12]
12. The daily
Vatan-e Emrooz, which is close to the government of
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claimed that "the new wave of oil
sanctions on Iran by [the countries] of the West has once again placed Iran on
the path of acquiring preferable technology, [this time] by producing ships and
oil tankers [powered] by nuclear fuel; and Iran is [only a few] steps away from
this astounding achievement. While European countries have followed the U.S.'s
unilateral sanctions against Iran and instated an oil boycott,
Iran never
considered relinquishing the nuclear path, but rather planned to continue on
this path and achieve nuclear fuel [enriched to a level] above 53% and up to 90%
for intercontinental ships... The 5+1, which until now were unwilling to submit
to Iran's undeniable right to enrich uranium [to a level of] 20%, will now be
forced to watch Iran achieve fuel enriched to a level needed for nuclear-powered
oil tankers."
[13]
Regime Officials Back Down: Iran Currently Has No Need For
Enrichment Beyond 20%
In an apparent belated realization that the statements regarding nuclear
submarines and 90% had incriminated Iran in intending to enrich uranium for
military purposes beginning in early August 2012, Iranian media and regime
mouthpieces are now refraining from mentioning the demand or the ability to
enrich uranium to a level beyond 20%. Furthermore, since late July 2012, regime
officials have stressed that Tehran does not at this stage require enrichment
beyond 20%.
On September 19, 2012, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) director
Fereydoon Abbasi stated, following a meeting with IAEA chief Yukiya Amano at a
gathering of the IAEA Board of Governors: "Iran has no intention of enriching
uranium beyond 20%."
[14]
Majlis speaker Ali Larijani was interviewed by the
Financial Times on
September 22, 2012. Asked about Iran's decision to build nuclear submarines,
which require enriched uranium beyond 20%, he said: "If the IAEA allows us to
have some products for peaceful technology and under its supervision, then we
can do it. But for now, we do not need it. If the IAEA had met its obligations
and had provided the Tehran nuclear reactor with fuel plates, we would not have
produced [even] 20% enriched uranium..."
[15]
*A. Savyon is director of MEMRI's Iranian Media Project. Y. Carmon is
President of MEMRI. Y. Mansharof is a research fellow at MEMRI.
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