Showing posts with label Cyprus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cyprus. Show all posts

Monday, October 31, 2016

Talks on prospects for Israeli gas export to Europe.

Source

Talks on prospects for Israeli gas export to Europe. (taz).

It's not going to be easy for Israel to break into any of the gas markets in regions surrounding it, Jim Krane, Middle East energy analyst, Rice University's Baker Institute, Houston, told Trend Oct.31.

The development of Leviathan and further expansion of Tamar gas field were put on hold by the principal license holder, Noble Energy of Houston, after the Israeli antitrust commissioner backed out of a deal under which Noble and its Israeli partner, Delek company, would sell off their interests in smaller undeveloped fields to avoid being labeled monopolists.

“In the meantime, Egypt has seized the initiative with its own mega-field,” said Krane. “Egypt's big discovery last year of the Zohr field has undermined Israeli hopes for exports to Egypt or use of spare Egyptian liquefaction capacity.”

Zohr field also reduces Israeli prospects for "gas diplomacy" with its gas-short neighbors, according to Krane.

Earlier, senior officials from Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Israel agreed to advance talks on a pipeline from Israel to Europe after an EU-sponsored study showed the project would be very feasible.

The study showed the pipeline, which would traverse Cyprus and Greece before reaching Italy, would cost about 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion). Read  the full story here, more here and Here.


Sunday, March 13, 2016

'EU should not engage in bazaar-style haggling with Turkey': Cypriot House Speaker.


'EU should not engage in bazaar-style haggling with Turkey': Cypriot House Speaker. (CyprusMail).

The EU should not engage in ‘bazaar-type’ haggling with Turkey over the migrant deal due to be thrashed out on Thursday in Brussels, House Speaker Yiannakis Omirou said on Sunday.

He warned that European institutions which were going to go against their own decisions would lose credibility.

Omirou was commenting on Tuesday’s visit by European Council President Donald Tusk to Cyprus, something he said came as a bit of a suprise. Tusk is coming to meet President Nicos Anastasiades ahead of Thursday’s summit as there are fears in Brussels that Cyprus could scupper the migrant deal by sticking to its veto on opening accession chapters for Turkey, which Ankara is demanding as part of a migrant deal.

Omirou urged the European Council to categorically reject Turkish demands, which, he said, were in no way related to the handling of the refugee crisis.

The European Council ought to safeguard its authority and credibility, as well as its own decisions, the House President went on.

When Turkey refuses to comply, the European Council can not exert pressure on the Republic of Cyprus in order to violate own decisions, he said.

Turkey has failed to comply with an EU decision that it recognizes the Republic of Cyprus and opens its ports and airports to Cyprus’ air and sea traffic.


Out of the 35 chapters Turkey must conclude as part of its accession negotiations, Cyprus has unilaterally frozen six, while additional chapters remain blocked by France.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Greek Defense Minister Speaks Out Forcefully in Alliance with Israel.


Greek Defense Minister Speaks Out Forcefully in Alliance with Israel. HT IMRA.

On February 18, 2016, the Greek Minister of Defense, Panos Kammenos, addressed an international conference at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies on “Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean.” The conference was co-sponsored by B'nai B'rith International. Kammenos offered a comprehensive and very forceful articulation of Greece’s view of the region: Of the dangers of radical Islam, of the problematic behavior of Turkey, and of his country’s new alliance with Israel. It is worth reading the full speech, entitled “Greece and the Southeastern Mediterranean: A Policy for Peace, Stability, and Prosperity.”

For a summary, see Greek defense minister slams Turkey’s ‘hegemonic ambitions’ in The Jerusalem Post, 21.2.2016.

Greece, which is the only country in the Eastern Mediterranean to be a member of both the European Union and NATO, a country of strategic importance for the free seaborne trade and the energy flow to Europe, with a shipping industry that definitely possesses a global influence , will do its outmost to achieve this goal.

I will try first to identify the threats to stability that appear in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Then, I will present the recently undertaken efforts for bilateral and regional cooperation by Greece.

Finally, I will sketch out some of the basic outlines of our future policies.

Threats to regional stability

These threats are of state and non-state nature. Obviously the primary threat is coming from ISIS (Daesh) and its criminal and terrorist activities. It is this source of instability that relates to the second, the war in Syria, which in its turn is related to Turkey’s neo-ottoman, revisionist and hegemonic ambitions. Other sources of instability I consider to be the spread of nuclear weapons, asymmetric threats and regional competition.

Daesh/Jihadism

Daesh is the primary threat to regional stability as it threatens the very essence of state organization, by proposing a different and obscure form of social structure and international behaviour. The unique Islamic jihadist philosophy of Daesh is nihilistic and missionary – refusing any other kind of truth and any kind of coexistence with anybody who is different. Its nihilism is barbaric by any ecumenical human standards: slavery of big parts of population (especially women, national, religious and other minorities), destruction of art and monuments of universal cultural heritage, export of hate, terrorism and violence against unarmed civilians.

In terms of Geography, Daesh has already reached the Meditarranean shore, by expanding its influence in Libya, and by inspiring terrorist actions in Tunisia.

Thus, besides combating this scourge in the areas under its control, policies should be adopted and actions undertaken in order to prevent its growth in Libya. Similarly, states should find ways of coordination and cooperation in order to stop Daesh-inspired groups and activities in the Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa.

War in Syria

The war in Syria takes place and evolves on the Mediterranean shore, just next to Israel and across the sea from Cyprus. First of all, let me clarify that neither this war, nor the war perpetrated by Daesh, are “clash of civilisations” types of war. They are wars resulting out of the competition of regional powers or extremist groups to which I will refer further below.

Consequently, and second, the war in Syria is not a war that has resulted out of big powers or “Zionist” involvement, as it is usually thought by the average person of the other side in the region. It is the result of competition by other regional powers – NOT Israel, Greece or Egypt – competing for political, religious and economic influence.

Undoubtedly, the war in Syria must end. The destruction and the suffering are so extended and so great that its continuation makes no sense and makes no honour to 21st century humanity. Yet, a viable solution should be found, in order to avoid solutions and influences of external factors that may harm regional and international stability. Ending this war will give the opportunity for reconstruction and for ending the greatest since WWII humanitarian crisis, which has become so heavy for neighbouring states and Europe.

In conjunction let me now turn to Turkey.

Turkey is a NATO ally to Greece. Turkey is aspiring to become an EU member to which the Republic of Cyprus already belongs. Turkey, on the other hand, for more than a decade benefited from its alliance with Israel.

Yet, its policies and behaviour towards these three democracies are far from being friendly, far from being in accordance with international law, and far from being of a stabilizing nature.

Turkey continues its non-ally behaviour towards Greece, by creating frictions and issues in the Aegean and in the South-Eastern European environment, and, lately, by deliberately pouring hundreds of thousands of refugees in the European soil.

It is still maintaining illegally an occupying force in Cyprus, hinders the progress of negotiations in the island, and tries to block the exploration and exploitation of natural resources in the Mediterranean.

You in Israel know very well how Turkey behaved in December 2012 and January 2013, when the Republic of Cyprus announced the discovery of hydrocarbons in the Aphrodite field. You also know about the behaviour towards your country, its involvement in domestic issues and the support for anti-Israeli organisations, the fomenting of anti-Semitist feelings in Turkey, its indiscretions in areas of sensitive information and technologies, and its maximalistic demands in order to normalize relations with Israel again.

I have to underline what Prime Minister Davutoglu said to his parliamentary group on December 22:

… I felt honoured on behalf of my nation to witness the hoisting of the Palestinian flag at the United Nations. Inshallah [God willing] that flag will one day be waved in Jerusalem ... Whatever is wrong for Palestine is wrong for us too.”

Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions expand, as you very well know, from Bosnia-Herzegovina to the Mediterranean southern shore. Turkey has hindered the 2003 allied operations in Iraq, and has undermined the UN embargo against Iran. 
Worst, it has initially allowed the formation of Daesh, by permitting the passage of extremists from all over the world going to fight for this Organization and the transfer of weapons; then, it has hospitalized jihadists, it has undermined the efforts of the West to fight Daesh, it has bombed the Kurdish forces fighting against it, and traded with them, thus strengthening them.
Moreover, after for many long years trading with Syria, training units of Syria’s army and after the Erdogan family spent vacations with Assad, it has been involved in the Syrian war against the Assad regime. Last, but not least, it has tried to create an international crisis between NATO and Russia, by downing the Russian aircraft, and now it also hinders the progress of the peace talks in Geneva.

Nuclear proliferation

Greece is observing the issue of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and the Mediterranean shore with great discomfort. The agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, whether one like it or not, is for the moment a reality, and what is important is the monitoring of the agreement’s full implementation.

More important is to monitor how this agreement and the medium-term perspective of a nuclear Iran are going to be perceived also by its regional competitors. In fact such a perspective gives important incentives also to Turkey to go nuclear. As you all know, Turkey has nuclear ambitions that were made public in the AKP’s program, before the 2002 elections. Turkey as it is publicly known, wants to build two nuclear energy power facilities, one in Akkuyu and the other in Sinopi on dangerous seismic ground. Of course right now it is not certain how fast the construction is going to proceed, given the frictions with Russia. What is important, however, is that the ambition is there.

Regional power competition

This is another threat to regional stability. It is interesting that the regional competition is primarily between Muslim states, and is expressed in two conflicts, the one in Syria and the other in Yemen. It is characteristic that in both conflicts Turkey has sided with Saudi Arabia, while in terms of religious influence over the Muslims in Europe, Turkey is competing with Saudi Arabia.

Of course, this competition and these conflicts are often wrapped up in the paper of primarily religious competition. Yet, it may be seen that Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are competing for supremacy in the region and within the Muslim world, each one pretending being and projecting a different model of state organization, and each one promoting its own economic interests, often related with hydrocarbons and pipelines.

The competition is also expressed in the arms race between the three, with relevant weapons programs and very high defence spending. In the last ten years Saudi Arabia (first) and Turkey (second), and in some years Iran (third), is each one spending in constant prices more than Israel, to which an effective defence is an absolute condition of survival. Other, smaller Gulf States are also participating in this arms race, as is the case of Qatar, recording a very high per capita defence spending. And the questions are, where this competition with Iran is going to lead the Sunni alliance, and against who are they going to turn, once the two conflicts are over.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Greece, Israel and Cyprus do not aspire to create or participate in an axis of evil. We have seen and continue to see the consequences of confrontation, extremism and war.

Our aim is to create, together with all those who share the same values and principles and without exclusions, an arc of stability, cooperation and prosperity extending from the broader East Mediterranean area to the Black Sea and beyond.

Our adversaries are not states or peoples and religions, but extreme ideologies and inhuman practices which incite hatred and destruction.

Our strategic priority is to create a better place for our peoples and future generations to live in peace, security and prosperity.

An area of cooperation and progress.

Our East Mediterranean, has been a cradle of great civilizations, of religious tolerance and coexistence and it can certainly become a springboard towards a better future mainly for our youth. We should not allow any more lost opportunities, no more lost generations. Read the full story here.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Cypriot Media claims ISIS to blame for hotel gun attack.


Cypriot Media claims ISIS to blame for hotel gun attack. (Famagusta).

A TURKISH CYPRIOT daily newspaper is reporting that the so-called Islamic state is trying to extort money from several casinos and hotels in the north of Cyprus.

Kibris Postasi reports that the Islamic State terrorist organization could be behind an attack against the Savoy hotel in occupied Turkish Cyprus Kyrenia.

The attack in the early hours of Sunday saw gunmen fire more than 51 bullets at the hotel.

KP Daily News, the English language portal of Kibris Postasi reported: " An exclusive report in KIBRIS POSTASI newspaper today by Vatan Mehmet says that speculation is rife that the terror organisation ISIL is shaking down some of the casino’s in the 'TRNC' via threats"

According to daily Africa- which leads with the headline "Hail of bullets with Kalashnikov” - no one was injured and it is believed that the aim was to "warn and threaten” the owners of the hotel.

Four people have been arrested in connection with the incident and are in custody.

The press was not allowed by the breakaway regime’s "police” to approach the hotel.

Turkish Cypriot media reported Islamic State’s threats have been discussed by "security forces” intensively.

There has been no official comment on the media claims.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Russia alerts Cyprus its carrying out military drill off Syrian coast soon.


Russia alerts Cyprus its carrying out military drill off Syrian coast soon. (Naharnet).

Russia has issued an alert for Cyprus to divert aircraft from normal flight paths as it plans to conduct military exercises off the Syria' coast next week, officials on the island said Friday.

Reports in Moscow said Russia had sent NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration about the exercises between the Syrian port of Tartus and Cyprus, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.

A source in the Cypriot defense ministry confirmed that Russia had issued NOTAMs for exercises including the firing of missiles, saying such notices were a "matter of routine."

There was still a possibility Russia might not carry out the exercises on the dates it set out, including for between September 14 and 17.

"They might carry out military exercises and they might not, but the dates have been reserved," the source told AFP.

A copy of the NOTAMs on the FAA website gave the coordinates for what it said were a "Russian navy exercise" including "rocket test firings" between September 8 and 15. Hmmm.....Sounds like 'Putin's patience is wearing out fast'.

HT And Source:



Saturday, May 2, 2015

'CHANGE' - China confirms joint naval exercise with Russia in Mediterranean Mid-May.


China confirms joint naval exercise with Russia in Mediterranean Mid-May. (IMRA).


Chinese Defense Ministry's regular press conference on April 30, 2015 Senior Colonel Geng Yansheng, spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense (MND) of the People's Republic of China (PRC), answers reporters' questions at a regular press conference on April 30, 2015: http://eng.mod.gov.cn/TopNews/2015-04/30/content_4582748.htm ...

Question:...According to Russian media reports, the navies of China and Russia will hold a joint military exercise near the Black Sea in May. Could you please confirm that? ...

Answer:...As for the third question, according to the annual military exchange plan between China and Russia, the navies of the two countries are going to conduct a joint exercise code-named “Joint Sea 2015-I” in the waters of the Mediterranean in mid-May. 

Nine surface ships from the Chinese and Russian navies will take part in the joint exercise. China will send three ships of 19th Chinese naval escort taskforce to take part in the joint exercise. The three ships, namely, the Linyi ship, Weifang ship as well as the Weishanhu ship, have just completed their escort mission in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the Somali coast.

The subject of the joint exercise is protection of navigation safety in the far seas. The drilling items in the exercise include maritime defense, maritime replenishment, escort actions, joint operations to safeguard navigation security as well as real weapon firing drill.

The purpose of the exercise is to strengthen the pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia and to improve the capabilities of the two navies to deal with maritime threats. What needs to be stressed is that, the joint exercise is not targeting any third party and not related to the regional situation. ...

Question: Regarding the naval exercise with Russia, is this the first time the Chinese and Russian navies to hold joint exercise in the waters of the Mediterranean? And is this exercise related to the situations in the countries such as Syria and Libya?

Answer: As far as I know, it is the first time for the navies of the two countries to conduct a joint exercise in that area. As I’ve mentioned in my previous answer that this joint exercise is to be held according to the annual exchange plan and is not related to regional situation and does not target any third party.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Turkish PM urges UN sec-gen Ban to come up with Cyprus plan....Why not end illegal occupation?


Turkish PM urges UN sec-gen Ban to come up with Cyprus plan....Why not end illegal occupation? (CM).

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has urged the United Nations Secretary-General to come up with a plan to solve the Cyprus problem before his term ends in 2016.

Speaking after a meeting with Ban Ki-moon in New York on Thursday, Davutoglu said he had reminded the UNSG that the Turkish side had supported the Annan plan in 2004, which was rejected by the Greek Cypriot side.

In 2004 we supported the Annan plan and I suggested to Mr Ban Ki-moon that we need now a Ban Ki-moon plan before the end of his term to end this long-standing crisis,” he said.

The UNSG’s term ends on December 31, 2016. Hmmm......'Neo Ottoman conquerors' ...a.k.a. 'Bullies'. Cyprus best chances are with Russia, since the US and EU won't do anything to prevent Cheap gas flowing through Turkey to Europe.  Read the full story here.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

"Yes We Can" - Russia starts deliveries of Antey-2500 missile systems to Egypt - source.


"Yes We Can" - Russia starts deliveries of Antey-2500 missile systems to Egypt - source.(ARBTH)

Russia has begun delivering Antey-2500 air defense missile systems to Egypt under a contract signed earlier, a high-ranking source in the Russian Defense Ministry told Interfax-AVN on Thursday.
"Deliveries of auxiliary technological equipment have been launched. Within a year, Egypt will receive launchers and other equipment," he said.
"The contract is being implemented according to schedule," the source said, declining to say how many Antey-2500 systems were purchased by Egypt.
Antey-2500 is the export version of Russia's S-300V4 surface-to-air missile system, which is used by the Russian Land Forces. The new system is able to engage ballistic and aerodynamic targets within a range of up to 400 kilometers.
Venezuela became the first foreign country to buy Antey-2500 systems, which were also offered to Iran. Hmmm.....The 'Obama legacy' taking shape.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Russia and Egypt to hold joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea.


Russia and Egypt to hold joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. (RN). [GoogleTranslate].

Russia and Egypt on Tuesday agreed to strengthen military ties, in particular to carry out in 2015 a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea and the anti-terrorist exercises "on the ground".

To the agreement came to the defense ministers of Russia and Egypt, Army General Sergei Shoigu and Colonel-General Saeed Ahmed Sobhi Sedky, told the representative of the Russian Defense Ministry.

"The parties agreed to continue the practice of participation of Egyptian troops as observers to the exercises conducted in the Russian Federation, as well as to hold this year the teaching of naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea and anti-terrorism doctrine rapid reaction force", - said the representative of the Ministry of Defense.

In addition, Shoigu proposed colleague to send the Egyptian military in Russia to participate in international military games and international military-technical forum "Army 2015". 

The reaction of the Egyptian Minister for the proposal is not reported.

According FSMTC Russia in September 2014, the Russian Federation and Egypt initialed arms contracts worth $ 3.5 billion. According to the general director of "Rostec" Chemezov, these contracts involve the supply of small arms, artillery and air defense systems. It was also reported Egypt  is interested in buying Party MiG-35.

Of the impending deal to buy Egypt various types of weapons from Russia first began after the failure of the US military aid to Cairo in connection with the overthrow of the military-Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in the summer of 2013. 

Monday, February 9, 2015

Russia does not need bases on Cyprus - Military expert, or Can't Afford them?



Russia does not need bases on Cyprus - Military expert, or Can't Afford them? (RBTH).

Russia does not need military bases on Cyprus, especially considering the current economic climate, former chief of the international agreements division of the Russian Defense Ministry\'s main international cooperation department Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky said.

"Sure, we do not need them [the bases], especially given the present-day economic conditions," Buzhinsky, PIR Center Board Chairman, told Interfax-AVN on Monday.

He was commenting on a statement by Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiadis who said Cyprus was prepared to consider the deployment of Russian air and naval bases on the island.

In the opinion of Buzhinsky, "Cyprus must need something, it wants money and is ready to do anything. It is especially amusing that they are offering [Russia] to open its base near Akrotiri, the location of a British military base."

Being a member of the European Union, Cyprus is part of the sphere of influence of the Europeans and the Americans, primarily, the Brits, he said.

"So, all this talk about Russian bases on Cyprus reminds me of Cyprus' "procurement" of S-300 missile systems. It even paid the bill, but the S-300 systems were finally deployed in Greece because no one would let Cyprus to deploy Russian-made air defense systems," Buzhinsky said.

Speaking of Greek media reports regarding the Russian government's request for leasing an air base on Cyprus, a military diplomat told Interfax-AVN in Moscow earlier that the Russian army did not have an operative need to deploy an airbase in the Mediterranean but it could temporarily use the Cypriot territory, for instance, for possible evacuation of Russian citizens from conflict-ridden Syria.

"The Russian army has no operative need to station an airbase on Cyprus, because the Russian Defense Ministry does not posses a regional group which will require support from such base," the source said.

"Most probably, it could be the question of temporary use, with the consent of the Cypriot side, of some airfield for possible evacuation of Russian citizens in the case of escalated tensions in Syria," he continued.

"The situation around that country [Syria] has changed, and Russia has contributed to that by its efforts," the source said.

At present, Russian airbases are deployed outside the national territory wherever Russia has army forces, i.e. in Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan, he said.

Western media, which commented on the statement by Anastasiadis, said that a formal agreement on military cooperation between Russia and Cyprus might be signed on February 25, 2015.

"CHANGE" - Moscow & Cairo to drop USD, use national currencies in bilateral trade – Putin.


"CHANGE" - Moscow and Cairo to drop USD, use national currencies in bilateral trade – Putin. (RT).

Russia and Egypt might soon exclude the US dollar and use their national currencies in the settlement of accounts in bilateral trade, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview to Egyptian media ahead of his Monday visit to the country.

The issue of abandoning the dollar in trade is “being actively discussed,” Putin told Al-Ahram daily newspaper ahead of his two-day trip to Egypt. The Russian president was invited for a bilateral meeting by his Egyptian counterpart Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

This measure will open up new prospects for trade and investment cooperation between our countries, reduce its dependence on the current trends in the world markets,” Putin said.

“I should note that we already use national currencies for trade with a number of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] states, and China. This practice proves its worth; we are ready to adopt it in our relations with Egypt as well. This issue is being discussed in substance by relevant agencies of both countries.”

Egypt is a long-time and trusted partner of Russia and the relationship between the two countries has been rapidly developing, the Russian president said.

During Sisi’s last visit to Russia in August 2014, the two leaders agreed to look at a possibility of creating a free trade zone between Egypt and the countries of the Customs Union. Meeting in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, the presidents also agreed upon the creation of a Russian industrial zone in Egypt, which will be part of a new Suez Canal project. Hmmmmm.......And Cyprus will sell GAS To Egypt. Read the full story here.


RELATED: Russia is reportedly getting military bases in EU member........CYPRUS?

Russia is reportedly getting military bases in EU member........CYPRUS?


Russia is reportedly getting military bases in EU member........CYPRUS? (GCSSI).By Elena Holodny
Cyprus has offered Russia to have air and navy bases on its territory.
Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades announced that the country is ready to host Russian aviation and naval bases. The official agreement on military cooperation between the two nations is expected be signed on February 25, 2015, according to Lenta.ru.

There is an old [defense] agreement, which should be renewed as is. At the same time, some additional services will be provided in the same way as we do with other countries, such as, for example, with France and Germany,” Nicos Anastasiades said. “Cyprus and Russia have traditionally had good relations, and this is not subject to change.

Cyprus’ announcement comes after Russia expressed interest in having a military base in Cyprus in late January, according to the Global Post and Greek Reporter.

And just like Greece has recently caused a stir by complicating the process of extending sanctions on Russia, Cyprus, too, just voiced some opposition to the additional sanctions on Russia, adding that many EU members share that opinion.

“We want to avoid further deterioration of relations between Russia and the European Union,” the Cypriot president reportedly said. So military cooperation between Cyprus and Russia is yet another red flag for the EU.

Presumably, the Russian Air Force will use the airbase “Andreas Papandreou,” along with the international airport of Paphos in the southwest of the island, approximately 50 kilometers from the air base of the British Royal Air Force “Akrotiri.” Additionally, the Russian navy will be able to permanently use the base of Limassol, according to Lenta.Ru.

The Limassol port borders on the British air base of Akrotiri which serves NATO operations and is also an important hub in the electronic military surveillance system of the alliance,” according to the Global Post.

But the most alarming Russia-Cyprus dalliance came during the height of the Cypriot financial crisis when Cyprus was reportedly negotiating with Russia for a bailout in 2013. The EU was particularly nervous about this because there was speculation that Russia might ask for a naval port and access to the country’s gas reserves in return.

On top of all of that, it’s notable that Russia made some major moves in the Mediterranean recently.

In mid-January, Russia announced that it will shift all its natural gas flows to Europe via Turkey, instead of Ukraine. “Our European partners have been informed of this and now their task is to create the necessary gas transport infrastructure from the Greek and Turkish border,” the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller said in a statement.

Additionally, Russia and Greece’s new government have taken initiatives to explore their military and economic relationship (for example, here, here, and here).

In fact, the new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras even stated in early February: “Greece and Cyprus can become a bridge of peace and cooperation between the EU and Russia.”

So this part of the world could soon become very interesting — and a huge pain for EuropeHmmmm....If true this will also be a major headache for 'Neo Ottoman Conqueror' Turkey's plans on Cypriot gas reserves, Guess Putin's love for Turkey isn't that deep after all.......just ask the Tatars. Read the full story here.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

French Total quit Cyprus energy search after finding nothing - reports.


French Total quit Cyprus energy search after finding nothing - reports. (Famagusta).


The final decision of the French company will be taken and communicated to the Government next week, the paper adds.

THE French company Total are quitting their energy search after finding no evidence for the existence of natural gas in blocks 10 and 11 of the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone, according to local media.

Politis reports that the company is seriously contemplating withdrawing permanently from the Cypriot EEZ, whilst Sigmalive reports the French company spent millions of euros on surveys in the two blocks, but without success.

Energy Minister George Lakkotrypis said that Total had been in contact with the government since September regarding the situation.

Speaking on CyBC radio this morning, Lakkotrypis said the decision of the French company is not final and the situation will be clearer next week.

"The company informed us some months ago that it was having difficulty finding any structures, targets, in the blocks it had a licence for. They informed us last September they had not found any target to drill," Lakkotrypis said.

He said the situation has no connection to the recent Turkish offshore provocations.

Total was granted hydrocarbon exploration licenses in blocks 10 and 11 after signing two production sharing contracts with the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism in Nicosia in February in 2013.

Last month the Cyprus Energy Ministry announced that no exploitable quantities of hydrocarbons were found in an exploratory well in the "Onasagoras" reservoir, in Cyprus` exclusive economic zone block 9.

Referring to `Onasagoras`, the Minister of Energy said that drilling in sea depths like in Cyprus have a technical chance of success of only 26 percent.

ENI is the Operator of blocks 2, 3 and 9 of the Cyprus EEZ with 80% participating interest while KOGAS is partner in these blocks with a 20% participating interest. Hmmmm........Strange he mentioned this...He said the situation has no connection to the recent Turkish offshore provocations.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Cyprus - Nicosia anger at UN report "does not correspond with reality"


Cyprus - Nicosia anger at UN report "does not correspond with reality" (Famagusta).

Dissatisfaction and disappointment was expressed by the Government through the Government Spokesman, Nikos Christodoulides, with regard to the content of the Report of the UN Secretary-General about the activities of the United Nations in Cyprus.

Christodoulides said that the Government wishes to express its strong dissatisfaction and disappointment with regard to the content of the Report of the UN Secretary-General about the activities of the United Nations in Cyprus during the period 21 June 2014 to 15 December 2014.

With regard to the provocative actions of Turkey in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus, the Report presents the events in a way that does not correspond at all with reality, he said.

He also said the report has insufficient references to the humanitarian issue of the missing persons.

"This picture is a far cry from reality since it is known that Turkey, the occupying power, refuses to provide unimpeded access to more than 30 military areas in which, according to reliable information, there are mass graves, as well as to military archives, thereby obstructing significantly the work of the CMP and prolonging in this way the tragedy of the relatives of the missing," he said.

Friday, October 31, 2014

Greece, Egypt, Cyprus urge 'bully' Turkey to quit gas search off island.


Greece, Egypt, Cyprus urge 'bully' Turkey to quit gas search off island. (Bugun).

The governments of Egypt, Greece and Cyprus urged Turkey on Wednesday to stop trying to chart gas deposits in areas of the east Mediterranean claimed by Cyprus, saying the work was illegal.

Cyprus, a member of the European Union, is anxious to develop the gas reserves in its so-called exclusive economic zone -- an offshore region lying south of the island.

Turkey does not recognize Cyprus, ethnically split between its Greek and Turkish Cypriot populations, and the government in Nicosia has accused it of dispatching a research vessel to collect seismic data in the disputed area.

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Greece and Cyprus met in Nicosia on Wednesday to prepare for a summit between the three nations next month, and condemned Turkey's actions.

"The ministers deplored the recent illegal actions perpetrated within Cyprus's EEZ, as well as the unauthorised seismic operations being conducted therein," they said in a statement.

Cyprus discovered an estimated 5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas in one offshore field in late 2011 and has licensed U.S. energy firm Noble, Italy's ENI and France's Total to search for gas.

"We are hopeful all activity in the eastern Mediterranean will conform with international regulations ... understandings which are based on good neighbourly relations," Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri told reporters, flanked by his Cypriot and Greek counterparts.

The gas row has already triggered a suspension of peace talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on the island partitioned by a 1974 Turkish invasion that followed a brief coup engineered by the military junta then ruling Greece.

Egypt, which lies south of Cyprus, has penned a deal with the Nicosia government recognising sea boundaries between the two countries for the purpose of commercial exploitation. Cyprus has also signed a similar deal with Israel.

Egypt is facing its worst energy crisis in decades, with declining gas production and high consumption that has turned the country from an energy exporter to a net importer in the past three years.

Last week BG Egypt, a subsidiary of global energy company BG, said it had held talks with Cypriot officials on the potential of Cyprus supplying Egypt with gas.

Cyprus has become particularly keen to develop offshore gas reserves as a potential source of revenue since it was compelled to seek an international financial bailout in early 2013. Hmmm......I've warned many times 'bully' Turkey will go after the Cypriot gas, no doubt about it.



Monday, October 13, 2014

Europe : "Iran is far towards top of our priorities for mid-term measures that will help reduce our reliance on Russian gas"



Europe : "Iran is far towards top of our priorities for mid-term measures that will help reduce our reliance on Russian gas" (TheNational).

The Europeans are also deeply interested in Iran’s gas reserves, the largest or second-largest in the world. As a European Commission source told Reuters: “Iran is far towards the top of our priorities for mid-term measures that will help reduce our reliance on Russian gas supplies”, a suggestion Russia was suspiciously quick to rubbish.

On the other hand, if the talks collapse or become moribund, we could expect an intensification of US-led sanctions, reducing Iranian exports back below 1 million bpd. That would slightly ease Opec’s task in Vienna of stemming the slump in prices.

But the most likely outcome seems to be modest progress, enough to justify a further six-month extension in talks, with some sanctions relief traded against further restrictions on nuclear activities. That would keep the sword of Damocles of Iran’s oil hanging over the markets, and it is likely that exports would creep up as some buyers, notably the Chinese, became bolder in advance of an anticipated final deal.

The core Arabian Gulf Opec countries – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE – have enjoyed an easy ride over the past three years. Oil prices were high, and their major competitors within the Organisation – Iran, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria – progressively neutralised themselves by insecurity, mismanagement and political problems.

Now things are not so comfortable. The Viennese, used to hosting diplomacy, will see Opec ministers as well as western and Iranian negotiators struggling to escape one of the oil market’s thorniest questions. Read the full story here.

Related -----> Flashback : NATO’s Energy Security Strategy: Break Russia’s control over European gas markets.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Israel's Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean.


Israel's Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean. (Middle East Forum).by Efraim Inbar
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2014 (view PDF).



About 90 percent of Israel's foreign trade is carried out via the Mediterranean Sea, making freedom of navigation in this area critical for the Jewish state's economic well-being. Moreover, the newly found gas fields offshore could transform Israel into an energy independent country and a significant exporter of gas, yet these developments are tied to its ability to secure free maritime passage and to defend the discovered hydrocarbon fields. While the recent regional turmoil has improved Israel's strategic environment by weakening its Arab foes, the East Mediterranean has become more problematic due to an increased Russian presence, Turkish activism, the potential for more terrorism and conflict over energy, and the advent of a Cypriot-Greek-Israeli axis. The erosion of the state order around the Mediterranean also brings to the fore Islamist forces with a clear anti-Western agenda, thus adding a civilizational dimension to the discord.[1]

The East Mediterranean Region

The East Mediterranean is located east of the 20o meridian and includes the littoral states of Greece, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza (a de facto independent political unit), Egypt, Libya, and divided Cyprus. The region, which saw significant superpower competition during the Cold War, still has strategic significance. Indeed, the East Mediterranean is an arena from which it is possible to project force into the Middle East. Important East-West routes such as the Silk Road and the Suez Canal (the avenue to the Persian Gulf and India) are situated there. In addition, the sources for important international issues such as radical Islam, international terrorism and nuclear proliferation are embedded in its regional politics.

Turkish policy, fueled by Ottoman and Islamist impulses, has led to strains in the relationship with Israel.

The East Mediterranean is also important in terms of energy transit. Close to 5 percent of global oil supply and 15 percent of global liquefied natural gas travels via the Suez Canal while Turkey hosts close to 6 percent of the global oil trade via the Bosporus Straits and two international pipelines. The discovery of new oil and gas deposits off the coasts of Israel, Gaza, and Cyprus and potential for additional discoveries off Syria and Lebanon, is a promising energy development.

Breakdown of the U.S. Security Architecture

The naval presence of the U.S. Sixth Fleet was unrivalled in the post-Cold War period, and Washington maintained military and political dominance in the East Mediterranean.[2]Washington also managed the region through a web of alliances with regional powers. Most prominent were two trilateral relationships, which had their origins in the Cold War: U.S.-Turkey-Israel and U.S.-Egypt-Israel.[3] This security architecture has broken down.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniya (left) meets with Turkish president Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan. With the Islamist ErdoÄŸan at its helm, Turkey supports Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot; helps Iran evade sanctions; assists Sunni Islamists moving into Syria; propagates anti-U.S. and anti-Semitic conspiracies while, at home, the regime displays increasing authoritarianism.
In the post-Cold War era, Ankara entered into a strategic partnership with Jerusalem, encouraged by Washington.[4] The fact that the two strongest allies of the United States in the East Mediterranean cooperated closely on strategic and military issues was highly significant for U.S. interests in the region. Yet, the rise of the Islamist Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) since its electoral victory of November 2002 has led to a reorientation in Turkish foreign policy which, under the AKP, has distanced itself from the West and developed ambitions to lead the Muslim world.[5] With Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan at its helm, Turkey supports Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot; helps Iran evade sanctions; assists Sunni Islamists moving into Syria and mulls an invasion of Syria; propagates anti-U.S. and anti-Semitic conspiracies while the regime displays increasing authoritarianism at home. Moreover, Turkey's NATO partnership has become problematic, particularly after a Chinese firm was contracted to build a long-range air and anti-missile defense architecture.[6]
Turkish policy, fueled by Ottoman and Islamist impulses, has led to an activist approach toward the Middle East and also to strains in the relationship with Israel. This became evident following the May 2010 attempt by a Turkish vessel, the Mavi Marmara, to break the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza. In October 2010, Turkey's national security council even identified Israel as one of the country's main threats in its official policy document, the "Red Book." These developments fractured one of the foundations upon which U.S. policy has rested in the East Mediterranean.
Stability in the East Mediterranean also benefited from the U.S.-Egyptian-Israeli triangle, which began when President Anwar Sadat decided in the 1970s to switch to a pro-U.S. orientation and subsequently to make peace with Israel in 1979. Egypt, the largest Arab state, carries much weight in the East Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Africa. Sadat's successor, Husni Mubarak, continued the pro-U.S. stance during the post-Cold War era. The convergence of interests among the United States, Egypt, and Israel served among other things to maintain the Pax Americana in the East Mediterranean.

Washington has offered confused, contradictory, and inconsistent responses to the Arab uprisings.

Yet, the U.S.-Egyptian-Israeli relationship has been under strain since Mubarak's resignation in February 2011. Egypt's military continued its cooperation with Israel to maintain the military clauses of the 1979 peace treaty. But the Muslim Brother-hood, which came to power via the ballot box, was very reserved toward relations with Israel, which the Brotherhood saw as a theological aberration. Moreover, the Brotherhood basically held anti-U.S. sentiments, which were muted somewhat by realpolitik requirements, primarily the unexpected support lent it by the Obama administration.[7]
The Egyptian army's removal of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in July 2013 further undermined the trilateral relationship since the U.S. administration regarded the move as an "undemocratic" development. Washington even partially suspended its assistance to Egypt in October 2013, causing additional strain in relations with Cairo. This came on the heels of President Obama's cancellation of the Bright Star joint military exercise and the Pentagon's withholding of delivery of weapon systems. The U.S. aid flow has now been tied to "credible progress toward an inclusive, democratically-elected, civilian government through free and fair elections."[8] Israeli diplomatic efforts to convince Washington not to act on its democratic, missionary zeal were only partially successful.[9] These developments have hampered potential for useful cooperation between Cairo, Jerusalem, and Washington.
The turbulence in the Arab world since 2011 has also underscored the erosion in the U.S. position. This is partly due to the foreign policy of the Obama administration that can be characterized as a deliberate, "multilateral retrenchment … designed to curtail the United States' overseas commitments, restore its standing in the world, and shift burdens onto global partners."[10] It is also partly due to Washington's confused, contradictory, and inconsistent responses to the unfolding events of the Arab uprisings.[11] Furthermore, the ill-conceived pledge of military action in Syria in response to the use of chemical weapons by Assad and the subsequent political acrobatics to avoid following through elicited much ridicule.[12]
This was followed by the November 2013 nuclear deal, hammered out between U.S.-led P5+1 group and Iran, that allows the Islamic Republic to continue enriching uranium as well as weaponization and missiles—the delivery systems—that has been viewed in the East Mediterranean (and elsewhere) as a great diplomatic victory for Tehran. Regional leaders have seen Washington retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan, engage (or appease) its enemies Iran and Syria, and desert friendly rulers. All have strengthened the general perception of a weak and confused U.S. foreign policy.

North of Israel, along the Mediterranean coast, sits Lebanon, a state dominated by the radical Shiite Hezbollah. Beirut has already laid claim to some of the Israeli-found offshore gas fields, shown above. Moreover, Syria, an enemy of Israel and long-time ally of Iran, exerts considerable influence in Lebanon.
Drained by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and blessed with new energy finds, Washington does not want to get dragged into additional conflicts in a Middle East that no longer seems central to its interests. As it edges toward energy independence, Washington is apparently losing interest in the East Mediterranean and the adjacent Middle East. This parallels Obama's November 2011 announcement of the "rebalance to Asia" policy.[13] The rise of China is an understandable strategic reason for the reinforcement of U.S. military presence in Asia. While little has been done to implement the Asia pivot, cuts in the U.S. defense budget clearly indicate that such a priority will be at the expense of Washington's presence elsewhere, including the East Mediterranean. The U.S. naval presence in the Mediterranean dwindled after the end of the Cold War and the mounting needs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.[14] At the height of the Cold War, the Sixth Fleet regularly comprised one or two aircraft carrier task forces; today it consists of a command ship and smaller vessels such as destroyers. While the U.S. military is still capable of acting in the East Mediterranean, the general perception in the region is that the Obama administration lacks the political will and skills to do so.
The possibility that European allies in NATO or the European Union will fill the U.S. position in the East Mediterranean is not taken seriously. Europe is not a real strategic actor since it lacks the necessary military assets, a clear strategic vision, as well as the political will to take up the U.S. role. Others, such as Russia, which has long maintained a base in Syria, might.

Growing Islamist Presence

Elements of radical Islam are increasingly powerful around the East Mediterranean basin. The Muslim-majority countries have difficulties in sustaining statist structures, allowing for Islamist political forces to exercise ever-greater influence. Indeed, Islamist tendencies in Libya, Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey all threaten the current unrestricted access to the area by Israel and the West.

The Egyptian military's grip over the Sinai Peninsula is tenuous. Full Egyptian sovereignty has not been restored.

Libya remains chaotic three years after the uprising against Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi. Such lack of order may lead to the disintegration of the state and allow greater freedom of action for Muslim extremists.[15] Libya's eastern neighbor, Egypt, is now ruled again by the military, but it is premature to conclude that the Islamist elements will play only a secondary role in the emerging political system. They still send multitudes into the streets of Egyptian cities to destabilize the new military regime. Apart from the important Mediterranean ports, Egypt also controls the Suez Canal, a critical passageway linking Europe to the Persian Gulf and the Far East that could fall into the hands of Islamists.
Even if the Egyptian military is able to curtail the Islamist forces at home, its grip over the Sinai Peninsula is tenuous. Under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, attempts to dislodge the Sunni jihadists roaming Sinai have increased, but full Egyptian sovereignty has not been restored. This could lead to the "Somalization" of the peninsula, negatively affecting the safety of naval trade along the Mediterranean, the approaches to the Suez Canal, and the Red Sea. Nearby Gaza is currently controlled by Hamas, a radical Islamist organization allied with Iran. Containment of the Islamist threat from Gaza remains a serious challenge.
North of Israel, along the Mediterranean coast, sits Lebanon, a state dominated by the radical Shiite Hezbollah. It has already laid claim to some of the Israeli-found offshore gas fields. Moreover, Syria, an enemy of Israel and long-time ally of Iran, exerts considerable influence in Lebanon. The Assad regime remains in power, but any Syrian successor regime could be Islamist and anti-Western.
Further on the East Mediterranean coastline is AKP-ruled Turkey. A combination of Turkish nationalism, neo-Ottoman nostalgia, and Islamist-jihadist impulses has pushed Ankara away from a pro-Western foreign orientation toward an aggressive posture on several regional issues. Turkey is interested in gaining control over the maritime gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, which would limit its energy dependence on Russia and Iran and help fulfill its ambitions to serve as an energy bridge to the West. This puts Ankara at loggerheads with Nicosia and Jerusalem, which share an interest in developing the hydrocarbon fields in their exclusive economic zones and exporting gas to energy-thirsty Europe. Indeed, Ankara also flexed its naval muscles by threatening to escort flotillas trying to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza.
West of Turkey is Greece, a democratic, Western state with a stake in the protection of the Greek Cypriots from Muslim domination. However, it has limited military ability to parry the Turkish challenge alone and is wracked by economic problems. Many East Mediterranean states also would likely favor the return of Cyprus to Turkish (and Muslim) rule. This preference introduces a civilizational aspect to the emerging balance of power.

A New Strategic Equation


Russian warships arrive at the Syrian port city of Tartus, January 8, 2014. The Russians have retained a naval base at Tartus and have gradually increased fleet size and stepped up patrols in the East Mediterranean, roughly coinciding with the escalation of the Syrian civil war. Moscow also gained full access to a Cypriot port and recently announced the establishment of a Mediterranean naval task force "on a permanent basis."
There is now a power vacuum in the East Mediterranean and an uncertain future. Several developments are noteworthy: a resurgence of Russian influence, the potential for Turkish aggression, the emergence of an Israeli-Greek-Cypriot axis, an enhanced terrorist threat, greater Iranian ability to project power in the region, and the potential for wars over gas fields.
Russia: The power vacuum makes it easier for Moscow to recapture some of its lost influence after the end of the Cold War. While U.S. and European navies in the region have steadily declined for years as this theater has been considered of diminishing importance, Russia has retained its Tartus naval base on the Syrian coast and has gradually improved its fleet size and stepped up patrols in the East Mediterranean, roughly coinciding with the escalation of the Syrian civil war.[16]Moscow's new military footprint in the East Mediterranean has been underscored by multiple Russian naval exercises. During his visit to the Black Sea Fleet in February 2013, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stressed that the "Mediterranean region was the core of all essential dangers to Russia's national interests" and that continued fallout from the Arab upheavals increased the importance of the region. Shortly after, he announced the establishment of a naval task force in the Mediterranean "on a permanent basis."[17]
Moscow also gained full access to a Cypriot port.[18] A member of the European Union but not NATO, and painfully aware that the West is not likely to offer a credible guarantee against potential Turkish aggression, Nicosia has come to consider Moscow a power able to provide a modicum of deterrence against Ankara.[19]
Russian diplomacy and material support have also been crucial to keeping Syria's Bashar al-Assad in power, making Moscow a tacit ally of Iran.[20] No less important, Russia has increased its leverage in Egypt—the most important Arab state—following the military coup. According to many reports, a large arms deal, to the tune of U.S. $2-3 billion, and naval services at the port of Alexandria, were discussed between the two countries at the beginning of 2014. If these deals do indeed materialize, this would represent an important change in Egyptian policy. It is not clear whether the Western powers fully understand the strategic significance of Egypt moving closer to Russia.
Despite its problems with Muslim radicals at home, Moscow has also maintained good relations with Hamas. In contrast to most of the international community, which considers Hamas a terrorist organization, in 2006, the Russian government invited a Hamas delegation to Moscow for talks.[21] In 2010, together with Turkey, Russia even called for bringing Hamas into the diplomatic process attempting to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.[22]
Finally, Russia—an energy producer—has shown interest in the newly

Russian support has been crucial to keeping Syria's Assad in power, making Moscow a tacit ally of Iran.

discovered offshore energy fields.[23] In July 2012, Russian president Vladimir Putin visited Israel to discuss the gas fields, among other things. In December 2013, Moscow signed a 25-year energy deal with Syria that opens the way for its eventual move into the gas-rich East Mediterranean.[24]
Turkey: The Russian encroachment has been paralleled by greater Turkish assertiveness. Under certain conditions, Ankara may be tempted to capitalize on its conventional military superiority to force issues by military action in several arenas, including the Aegean, Cyprus, Syria, and, perhaps, Iraq. The potential disintegration of Syria and the possible establishment of an independent Greater Kurdistan could be incentives for Turkish intervention. The collapse of the AKP's earlier foreign policy, dubbed "zero problems" with Turkey's neighbors, could push Ankara into open confrontation. Aggressive Russian behavior in Crimea could reinforce such tendencies.
Similarly, Turkey's appetite for energy and aspiration to become an energy bridge to Europe could lead to aggressive behavior. Turkish warships have harassed vessels prospecting for oil and gas off Cyprus. [25] Cyprus is also the main station for a Turkish desired pipeline taking Levant Basin gas to Turkey for export to Europe. Ankara might even be tempted to complete its conquest of Cyprus, begun when it invaded and occupied the northern part of the island in 1974.
Ankara has embarked on military modernization and has ambitious procurement plans. Turkish naval power is the largest in the East Mediterranean.[26] In March 2012, then-navy commander Admiral Murat Bilgel outlined Turkey's strategic objective "to operate not only in the littorals but also on the high seas," with high seas referring to the East Mediterranean. The December 2013 decision to purchase a large 27,500-ton landing dock vessel capable of transporting multiple tanks, helicopters, and more than a thousand troops, reflects its desire to project naval strength in the region.[27]
Israel, Cyprus, and Greece: Turkey's threats and actions have brought Israel, Cyprus, and Greece closer together. Beyond blocking a revisionist Turkey and common interests in the area of energy security, the three states also share apprehensions about the East Mediterranean becoming an Islamic lake. Athens, Jerusalem, and Nicosia hope to coordinate the work of their lobbies in Washington to sensitize the U.S. administration to their concerns. Battling an economic crisis, Greece wants the new ties with Israel to boost tourism and investment, particularly in the gas industry, while deepening its military partnership with a powerful country in the region.[28] Moreover, the emerging informal Israeli-Greek alliance has the potential to bring Israel closer to Europe and moderate some of the pro-Palestinian bias occasionally displayed by the European Union.

Greece's George Papandreou (left) and Benjamin Netanyahu in Athens, August 2010. Turkey's threats and actions have brought Israel and Greece closer together . Battling an economic crisis, Greece wants the new ties with Israel to boost tourism and investment, particularly in the gas industry, while deepening its military partnership with a powerful country in the region.
Following Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Greece in August 2010, cooperation between the two countries has been broad and multifaceted, covering culture, tourism, and economics. One area of cooperation discussed was the possibility of creating a gas triangle—Israel-Cyprus-Greece—with Greece the hub of Israeli and Cypriot gas exports to the rest of Europe.[29] Such a development could lessen the continent's energy dependence on Russia.[30]Another project that can further improve the ties between the countries is a proposed undersea electric power line between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece. Currently Israel and Cyprus are isolated in terms of electricity and do not export or import almost any power.
Israeli-Greek military cooperation has already manifested itself in a series of multinational—Greek, Israel, and United States—joint air and sea exercises under the names Noble Dina[31] and Blue Flag (which included an Italian contingent).[32] Greece also cooperated with Israel in July 2011 by preventing the departure of ships set to sail to Gaza.[33]
International terrorism: Developments in the Arab states of the East Mediterranean have increased the threat of international terrorism. As leaders lose their grip over state territory and borders become more porous, armed groups and terrorists gain greater freedom of action. Moreover, security services that dealt with terrorism have been negatively affected by domestic politics and have lost some of their efficiency. Sinai has turned into a transit route for Iranian weapons to Hamas and a base for terrorist attacks against Israel. Hamas has even set up rocket production lines in Sinai in an effort to protect its assets, believing Jerusalem would not strike targets inside Egypt for fear of undermining the bilateral relations.[34] Syria has also become a haven for many Islamist groups as result of the civil war.
Furthermore, as weakened or failed states lose control over their security apparatus, national arsenals of conventional and nonconventional arms have become vulnerable, which may result in the emergence of increasingly well-armed, politically dissatisfied groups seeking to harm Israel. For example, following the fall of Qaddafi, Libyan SA-7 anti-air missiles and anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades reached Hamas in Gaza.[35] Similarly, in the event of a Syrian regime collapse, Damascus's advanced arsenal, including chemical weapons, shore-to-ship missiles, air defense systems, and ballistic missiles of all types could end up in the hands of Hezbollah or other radical elements.[36]

Salafi jihadist groups have reportedly attacked the Suez Canal several times. In 2013, an Egyptian court sentenced 26 members of an alleged terrorist group to death over plans to target ships in the canal. In 2014, Egyptian authorities again tightened security around the canal following fears that Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Mohamed Morsi might attack ships in the waterway in protest over his trial.
Finally, terrorist activities could adversely affect the navigation through the Suez Canal, an important choke point. Salafi jihadist groups have attacked the canal several times already.[37]
The Iranian presence: The decline in U.S. power, the timidity of the Europeans, and the turmoil in the Arab world have facilitated Iranian encroachment of the East Mediterranean. Indeed, Tehran's attempts to boost its naval presence in the Mediterranean are part of an ambitious program to build a navy capable of projecting power far from Iran's borders.[38]Tehran would like to be able to supply its Mediterranean allies: Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza. Entering the Mediterranean also enhances Iran's access to Muslim Balkan states, namely Albania, Bosnia, and Kosovo, giving Tehran a clear stake in the outcome of the Syrian civil war. Assad's hold on power is critical for the "Shiite Crescent" from the Persian Gulf to the Levant, which would enhance Iranian influence in the Middle East and the East Mediterranean. Tehran has also been strengthening naval cooperation with Moscow, viewed as a potential partner in efforts to limit and constrain U.S. influence.[39]

Tehran's attempts to boost its naval presence in the Mediterranean are part of a program to build a navy capable of projecting power far from Iran's borders.

Wars over gas fields: The discovery of gas fields in the East Mediterranean could potentially escalate tensions in this increasingly volatile region. Competing claims to the gas fields by Israel's former ally Turkey as well as by its neighbor Lebanon (still in a de jure state of war) have precipitated a buildup of naval forces in the Levant basin by a number of states, including Russia. Israel's wells and the naval presence protecting them also offer new targets at sea to its longstanding, non-state enemies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Conscious of these threats, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, has approved the navy's plan to add four offshore patrol vessels.[40]Israeli defense circles hope that Israel's expanding navy, combined with continuous improvement of land and air assets and increasing cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, will give pause to any regional actor that would consider turning the Mediterranean Sea into the next great field of battle. Indeed, the Israeli navy is now preparing to defend the gas field offshore of Israel.[41]
The future role of Russia in these developments is not clear. Some analysts believe that Moscow is interested primarily in marketing the region's energy riches. Securing gas reserves in the East Mediterranean will also help Moscow safeguard its dominant position as a natural gas supplier to western Europe, which could be challenged by new competitors in the region. Yet, delays and disruptions in moving gas to Europe might further strengthen Russia's role as a major energy supplier to Europe and keep prices high, which is beneficial for Moscow. Moreover, as the Ukraine crisis indicated, geopolitics still is a dominant factor in Russian decision-making.

Conclusion

Stability in the East Mediterranean can no longer be taken for granted as U.S. forces are retreating. Europe, an impotent international actor, cannot fill the resulting political vacuum. Russia under Putin is beefing up its naval presence. Growing Islamist freedom of action is threatening the region. Turkey, no longer a true ally of the West, has its own Mediterranean agenda and the military capability to project force to attain its goals. So far, the growing Russian assertiveness has not changed the course of Turkish foreign policy. The disruptive potential of failed states, the access of Iran to Mediterranean waters, and interstate competition for energy resources are also destabilizing the region. But it is not clear whether the Western powers, particularly the United States, are aware of the possibility of losing the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea to Russia or radical Islam, or are
preparing in any way to forestall such a scenario. U.S. naiveté and European gullibility could become extremely costly in strategic terms.
The Israeli perspective on the East Mediterranean region is colored by its vital need to maintain the freedom of maritime routes for its foreign trade and to provide security for its newly found gas fields. While its strategic position has generally improved in the Middle East, Jerusalem sees deterioration in the environment in the East Mediterranean. A growing Russian presence and Turkish assertiveness are inimical to Israel's interests. Developments along the shores of the East Mediterranean also decrease stability and enhance the likelihood of more Islamist challenges.
In civilizational terms, the East Mediterranean has served as a point of contention in the past between Persia and the ancient Greeks and between the Ottomans and Venetians. It is the location where the struggle between East and West takes place. After the Cold War, the borders of the West moved eastward. Now, they could easily move in the other direction.
Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies, is professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and a Shilman-Ginsburg Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

[1] Samuel P. Huntington, "The Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993, pp. 22-49.
[2] For more, see Seth Cropsey, Mayday: The Decline of American Naval Supremacy (New York: Overlook Duckworth, 2013).
[3] Jon B. Alterman and Haim Malka, "Shifting Eastern Mediterranean Geometry," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 111-25.
[4] Efraim Inbar, The Israeli-Turkish Entente (London: King's College Mediterranean Program, 2001); Ofra Bengio, The Turkish-Israeli Relationship. Changing Ties of Middle Eastern Outsiders (New York: Palgrave, 2004).
[5] Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush, "The US and Turkey: End of an Alliance?" Survival, Summer 2007, pp. 129-44; Efraim Inbar, "Israeli-Turkish Tensions and Their International Ramifications," Orbis, Winter 2011, pp. 135-9; Ahmet DavutoÄŸlu, Stratejik Derinlik: Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Konumu (Istanbul: Küre Yayınları, 2001).
[6] Tarik Ozuglu, "Turkey's Eroding Commitment to NATO: From Identity to Interests," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 153-64; Burak Ege Bekdil, "Allies Intensify Pressure on Turkey over China Missile Deal," The Defense News, Feb. 24, 2014, p. 8.
[7] Liad Porat, "The Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt-Israel Peace," Mideast Security and Policy Studies, no. 102, BESA Center for Strategic Studies, Ramat Gan, Aug. 1, 2013.
[8] Tally Helfont, "Slashed US Aid to Egypt and the Future of the Bilateral Relations," Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington, D.C., Oct. 13, 2013.
[9] Interview with senior Israeli official, Jerusalem, Apr. 7, 2013.
[10] Daniel W. Drezner, "Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy? Why We Need Doctrines in Uncertain Times," Foreign AffairsJuly/Aug. 2011, p. 58.
[11] Eitan Gilboa, "The United States and the Arab Spring," in Efraim Inbar, ed., The Arab Spring, Democracy and Security: Domestic and Regional Ramifications (London: Routledge, 2013), pp. 51-74.
[12] Eyal Zisser, "The Failure of Washington's Syria Policy," Middle East Quarterly, Fall 2013, pp. 59-66.
[13] "Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration's 'Rebalancing' toward Asia," Congressional Research Service, Washington, D.C., Mar. 28, 2012.
[14] Seth Cropsey, "All Options Are Not on the Table: A Briefing on the US Mediterranean Fleet,"World Affairs Journal, Mar. 16, 2011; Steve Cohen, "America's Incredible Shrinking Navy," The Wall Street Journal, Mar. 20, 2014.
[15] Florence Gaub, "A Libyan Recipe for Disaster," Survival, Feb.-Mar. 2014, pp. 101-20.
[16] Thomas R. Fedyszyn, "The Russian Navy 'Rebalances' to the Mediterranean," U.S. Naval Institute, Annapolis, Dec. 2013.
[17] Ibid.
[18] InCyprus.com, Jan. 11, 2014.
[19] Interviews with senior officials, Nicosia, Oct. 10, 2012.
[20] Zvi Magen, "The Russian Fleet in the Mediterranean: Exercise or Military Operation?" Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2013.
[21] Igor Khrestin and John Elliott, "Russia and the Middle East," Middle East Quarterly, Winter 2007, pp. 21-7.
[22] The Jerusalem Post, May 12, 2010.
[23] Thane Gustafson, "Putin's Petroleum Problem," Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec. 2012, pp. 83-96.
[24] United Press International, Jan. 16, 2014.
[25] For example, see, Gary Lakes, "Oil, Gas and Energy Security," European Rim Policy and Investment Council (ERPIC, Larnaca, Cyprus), Oct. 23, 2009.
[26] "Turkey," Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington, D.C., Dec. 24, 2012, pp. 19-25.
[27]The Jerusalem Post, Feb. 4, 2014.
[28] Bloomberg News Service (New York), Aug. 2011.
[29] The Jerusalem Post, Sept. 10, 2013.
[30] Ibid., Aug. 2, 2011.
[31] The Times of Israel (Jerusalem), Mar. 25, 2014.
[32] Arutz Sheva (Beit El and Petah Tikva), Nov. 25, 2013.
[33]Haaretz (Tel Aviv), July 2, 2011.
[34] The Jerusalem PostDec. 11, 2011.
[35] Reuters, Aug. 29, 2011.
[36] Defense News (Springfield, Va.), Dec. 12, 2011.
[37] USA Today, Nov. 4, 2013.
[38] Shaul Shay, "Iran's New Strategic Horizons at Sea," Arutz Sheva, July 30, 2012; Agence France-Presse, Jan. 17, 2013.
[39] Michael Eisenstadt and Alon Paz, "Iran's Evolving Maritime Presence," Policy Watch, no. 2224, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Mar. 13, 2014.
[40] Israel Hayom (Tel Aviv), July 10, 2012.
[41] Defense News (Springfield, Va.), Feb. 27, 2012.
Related Topics:  Israel & Zionism  |  Efraim Inbar  |  Fall 2014 MEQreceive the latest by email: subscribe to the free mef mailing listThis text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete and accurate information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.
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