Turkey - Statistical analysis on the 2017 referendum finds vote 'distortions' were large enough to reverse the result.

Turkey - Statistical analysis on the 2017 referendum finds vote 'distortions' were large enough to reverse the result.(arxiv.org).

With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017, Turkey continues its transition from democracy to autocracy. 

By the will of the Turkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power to president Erdogan. 

However, the referendum was confronted with a substantial number of allegations of electoral misconducts and irregularities, ranging from state coercion of 'No' supporters to the controversial validity of unstamped ballots. 

In this note we report the results of an election forensic analysis of the 2017 referendum to clarify to what extent these voting irregularities were present and if they were able to influence the outcome of the referendum. 

We specifically apply novel statistical forensics tests to further identify the specific nature of electoral malpractices. In particular, we test whether the data contains fingerprints for ballot-stuffing (submission of multiple ballots per person during the vote) and voter rigging (coercion and intimidation of voters). 

Additionally, we perform tests to identify numerical anomalies in the election results. 

We find systematic and highly significant support for the presence of both, ballot-stuffing and voter rigging. 

In 6% of stations we find signs for ballot-stuffing with an error (probability of ballot-stuffing not happening) of 0.15% (3 sigma event). The influence of these vote distortions were large enough to tip the overall balance from 'No' to a majority of 'Yes' votes.

Alija Izetbegovic, former leader of the Bosnian Muslims was the one, who had masterminded Islamic State projects. - Official

Alija Izetbegovic And Erdogan

Alija Izetbegovic, former leader of the Bosnian Muslims was the one, who had masterminded Islamic State projects. - Official. (Sputnik).

The Republika Srpska is one of the two autonomous entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the other is the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their relations are largely affected by the civil war among Serbs, Bosnian Muslims and Croatians in 1992-1995.

"We have evidence that the Bosniak political establishment, headed by [Bosniak member of the country's presidency] Bakir Izetbegovic provides all the necessary logistics for arriving terrorists… 

Everyone knows that his father Alija Izetbegovic, who had written the 'Islamic declaration,' was an 'editor-in-chief' of the Daesh project.

If you read the declaration, you will see that it were the same things that the Islamic State had implemented in Syria and Iraq: the Sharia law [above all things] and no mercy to the ones, who do not support them," Dodik said.

He added that the fact that Bakir Izetbegovic had promised to continue the policy of his father should not be forgotten. 

Daesh, which is an extremist jihadist group outlawed in many countries, including Russia, overran large areas of Syria and Iraq in 2014 and declared a caliphate. The group has gained much notoriety for conducting suicide bombings and other attacks worldwide as well as for recruiting young people via social media.

The Islamic declaration is a manifesto written by Alija Izetbegovic during the existence of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The declaration sums up his views on ties between the state, society and Islam. The controversial document has been seen by many as a proposal to impose the Sharia law in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Hmmm......Doubtful but perhaps the place and person where young Erdo found inspiration for future plans? 

Alija Izetbegovic II And Erdogan

Flashback September 2015.

@JSO107NC @liliumdev @EjmAlrai @moscow_ghost Bosnia and Herzegovina Imam Halilovic Calls For Jihad Against The Serbs.https://t.co/vvTShOO5Yu pic.twitter.com/E3BduAQf4y

— MFS - The Other News (@MFS001) December 10, 2016

German EU commissioner warns Turkey it can forget EU membership while Erdogan in power.

German EU commissioner warns Turkey it can forget EU membership while Erdogan in power. (DM).

Germany's European Commissioner said on Tuesday that Turkey would probably not join the European Union while Tayyip Erdogan was president.

Turkey began talks about joining the European Union in 2005 but has made little progress. The prospect of the mainly Muslim country becoming an EU member worries many countries and relations have become more strained since a failed coup in July.

'It will probably be an issue for the period after Erdogan,' Guenther Oettinger said in an interview with the Bild newspaper.

On Sunday German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday he did not see Turkey joining the EU during his own political career, noting that the bloc would not be in a position to accept Turkey even if Ankara met all the entry requirements tomorrow. Hmmm.......Finally they got it. Read the full story here.

This encounter did not go well
Dutch FM: Don't export your problems to my country
Turkish FM: Don't lecture me pic.twitter.com/1cinHhCxWJ

— Abdullah Bozkurt (@abdbozkurt) August 29, 2016

'Neo Ottoman conqueror' Turkey demands “NATO replaces Greek islets names with …numbers! And Authority over Aegean Sea”

'Neo Ottoman conqueror' Turkey demanded “NATO replaces Greek islets names with …numbers!” HT: KeepTalkingGreece.

We had seen it coming. That the NATO involvement in the Aegean would trigger anew Ankara’s appetite to bring back the focus on the so-called “Grey Zones in the Aegean”. 

And indeed. During the heated NATO talks last month about the deployment of the SNMG2 force aiming to stem the flow of refugees, the Turkish representative at the military Committee submitted a document demanding among others that

The NATO does not refer to 16 small Greek islets in the Aegean with [their Greek] names but with numbers!!!

According to daily Kathimerini that obtained the confidential 17-point document, Turkey demanded:

1. the Alliance replaces the term “Aegean air space” with “NATO air space”
2. the Alliance refrains from using the Greek names of several tiny islands “that may been seen as the promotion of national interest”
3. NATO ships do not dock at ports of the Dodecanese islands in the southeast Aegean
4. Turkey demanded permission to enter the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) without submitting flight plans, thus disputing the 10-mile Greek airspace
5. Turkey claimed supervision of almost half the Aegean Sea for Search and Rescue operations.

The document was submitted by General Ethem Buyukisik.

“It was the first time that had Turkey disputed Greek sovereignty via an official NATO document,” Kathimerini stresses adding that the NATO Militares rejected the Turkish request.

On Friday, during a joint press conference with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias in Athens,

Turkish FM Mevlut Cavusoglu openly challenged the Greek sovereignty in the Aegean and claimed:

“It makes no difference who is the owner of an island, when it comes to rescue people.”

To hear such a proposal by a country that does not allow neither the Frontex vessels nor the NATO ships to operate in its own 3-nautical-miles of territorial waters, sound if  nothing else like a joke – and a bad one, when he makes such a statement in Athens. Hmmm........History has shown again and again that dictators only grow bolder with each illegal step they take.

@HasanSari7 Appeasement makes dictators only more dangerous. #NATO #EU How much longer? https://t.co/Gz86nCB1gX

— MFS - The Other News (@MFS001) October 8, 2015

Kurdish party accuse Turkey's Erdogan of 'constitutional dictatorship'.

Kurdish party accuse Turkey's Erdogan of 'constitutional dictatorship'.(DS).

ANKARA: The co-chair of Turkey's main Kurdish party has accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of wanting to set up "a constitutional dictatorship," vowing his movement will strongly oppose moves to impose one-man rule.

Selahattin Demirtas of the People's Democratic Party (HDP) told AFP that his party hoped to turn Erdogan's political calculations "upside down" in June 7 legislative polls.

Erdogan's ruling Islamic-rooted party had been relying on Kurdish support to push through changes to the country's constitution.

The controversy comes amid indications of delays in the peace process to end a decades-long insurgency by Kurdish rebels, with Demirtas saying talks had not been helped by recent comments made by Erdogan.

"Mr President is trying to create a constitutional dictatorship by collecting all the power for himself," Demirtas said at his party's headquarters in Ankara.

Erdogan, elected head of state last year after more than a decade as prime minister, wants to rewrite the constitution to create a executive-style presidency.

Demirtas said that Erdogan was already riding roughshod over the existing constitution in the run-up to the polls by not severing his links with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) as required of the president.

"The constitution is currently suspended in Turkey," he said.

"Turkey will face big challenges if someone who does not recognize the constitution today brings in one-man rule under the pretext of presidential system tomorrow."

Demirtas said he also hopes his party will win support from non-Kurdish voters who back his liberal, secular and pro-women policies and who are tired of Erdogan's "polarization" of the country. Hmmm......Erdogan doesn't care about the Kurds, he only wants their votes so he can become absolute ruler of 'Islamist Turkey'.Read the full story here.

'Advanced Islamist Democracy' Turkey blocks Twitter, YouTube over hostage photos.

'Advanced Islamist Democracy' Turkey blocks Twitter, YouTube over hostage photos. (BBC).

A Turkish court has ordered blocks on Twitter and YouTube for sharing photos of a hostage taken during an armed siege last week.

The blocks have been imposed because images of a deadly siege were being shared via the social networks.

Before imposing the blocks on the websites, Turkish authorities had moved to stop newspapers printing images taken during the siege last week.

The newspapers were accused by the government of disseminating "terrorist propaganda" for the DHKP-C group that was reportedly behind the attack on the courthouse.

In total, 166 websites which shared the images were blocked by the court order.

YouTube published the text of the court ruling on its website saying an "administration measure" had been enacted by Turkey's telecoms authority.

Facebook was also subject to the same block but it is believed the restrictions on it have been lifted after it removed the images. Hmmmm.....How much longer will EU politicians allow the 'Islamist dictator' to trample human values and rights in order to get cheap gas?Read the full story here.

Social media inaccessible for many users in #Turkey. Hurriyet says access providers got prosecutor order to block YouTube, Facebook, Twitter

— Benjamin Harvey (@BenjaminHarvey) April 6, 2015

Erdogan spokesman says #Turkey's social media ban has nothing to do with freedom of speech, curbed freedoms

— Lucy Kafanov (@LucyKafanov) April 6, 2015

Erdogan spokesman blames "irresponsible" news outlets for Twitter, YouTube ban. Says publishing hostage pics amounts to terrorist propaganda

— Lucy Kafanov (@LucyKafanov) April 6, 2015

#Turkey's ban on Twitter, YouTube come as 7 Turkish newspapers investigated for "terrorist propaganda" in publishing slain prosecutor photo

— Lucy Kafanov (@LucyKafanov) April 6, 2015

"Say Goodbye to EU Tourism" - Erdoğan vows fight against alcohol, tobacco, drugs.

"Say Goodbye to EU Tourism" - Erdoğan vows fight against alcohol, tobacco, drugs. (HD).

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has vowed a struggle against alcohol, tobacco and drugs with his "full power" if he becomes a president.

Erdoğan, who is running for a presidential post on Aug. 10, didn't make it secret that he will turn the presidency into a more effective position, a stark departure from previous presidents who occupied the ceremonial seat.

Erdoğan recalled his "personal sensitivities" about smoking and said it is not only about tobacco, but also "alcohol." He also added "bonzai" to his list of "harmful products" he vowed to fight against and said this is both Turkey's "national and spiritiual matter."

He said if he is elected as a president, he will fight against harmful products, particularly alcohol and drugs, with all "my resources and authority." Hmmm....I predict European tour operators will get a lot more bookings to Greece.

Related:

TURKISH GOVERNMENT HANDS CONTROL OF CERTAIN TOURIST TOWNS TO RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS DIRECTORATE…….

Egypt prosecutor orders apprehension and arrest of five opposition activists.

Egypt prosecutor orders apprehension and arrest of five opposition activists accused by the Muslim Brotherhood of inciting attacks on headquarters.(AO).a statement from the prosecutor's office said.

Those ordered arrested included Alaa Abdel-Fattah, a prominent blogger; Ahmed Domah, a member of the Popular Current; and Hazem Abdel-Azeem, a leading member in the oppostion National Salvation Front.

The five were also banned from travel.

Earlier on Monday, Abdel-Moneim Maksoud, the Muslim Brotherhood's lawyer, had filed a complaint with the prosecutor-general against 169 individual including party heads, politicians, and "thugs" accusing them of inciting violence against the group. South Cairo's General Prosecution on Monday summoned Mohamed Abul Ghar, head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and other political figures to hear their testimony in the allegations against them of instigating attacks on the Muslim Brotherhood headquarters in Mokattam.

South Cairo Prosecution also summoned other political activists including Free Egyptians Party member Mahmoud El-Alaily, member of the Revolution Youth Coalition Khaled Telima, and Hazem Abdel-Azeem.Abdel-Moneim Maksoud, the Brotherhood's lawyer, filed a complaint with the prosecutor-general against 169 individual including party heads, politicians, and "thugs" on Monday.

The prosecution earlier listened to the testimony of a large number of injured protesters from the Brotherhood who accused a number of political figures and party members of instigating the attacks.

The Brotherhood protesters accused Abul Ghar, El-Alaily, Abdel Hameed, Telima, and activists Ahmed Domah and Alaa Abdel-Fatah.

Proesters also accused Khaled Ali, a renowned lawyer and activist, Nawara Negm, revolutionary activist, Bothaina Kamel, TV presenter, Ziad El-Olimy, member of Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and Takadum El-Khateeb, member of National Association for Change.Hmmmm......The Muslim brotherhood Dictatorship is starting, welcome to Egypt ....Iranian style.Read the full story here.

Obama urges Egyptian leader to protect democratic principles, while approving $2.5 million order of Tear gas to crush protests.

Obama urges Egyptian leader to protect democratic principles, while approving $2.5 million order of Tear gas to crush protests.(AA). President Barack Obama urged Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi to protect democratic principles in Egypt and work to build political consensus as he prepares for parliamentary elections.
Obama and Mursi spoke by telephone on Tuesday, a White House statement said.
Liberal and leftist parties in Egypt have vowed to boycott the parliamentary elections to protest against a law they say favors Mursi’s Muslim Brotherhood.
This has raised the prospect of an election fought mostly between the Muslim Brotherhood and more hardline Islamist groups. The elections are planned in four stages between late April and June.
“The president welcomed President Mursi’s commitment to serving as a president for all Egyptians, including women and people of all faiths, and emphasized President Mursi’s responsibility to protect the democratic principles that the Egyptian people fought so hard to secure,” the White House said.
Obama encouraged Mursi and all political groups within Egypt, to try to build consensus and advance the political transition, according to the statement.
Meanwhile the Egyptian Interior Ministry has won U.S. approval to order 140,000 tear gas cannisters from an American company. The Egyptian procurement was coordinated with the Defense Ministry, the leading recipient of U.S. assistance. “The permit from the U.S. government was obtained after removing the company’s name and country of origin written on the items,” an Interior Ministry memorandum said.
On Feb. 25, the State Department confirmed the tear gas export to Egypt.
Officials said Washington was urging training of Egyptian security forces in the use of the tear gas. “When used appropriately these products can save lives and protect property,” State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said. The Egyptian correspondence said the shipment — which consisted of 70,000 gas bombs and 70,000 long-range gas projectiles — was delayed, which required the intervention of the Defense Ministry.Hmmmm......'Deceit is the mother of all warfare tactics'.Read the full story here.

Obama's BFF Erdoğan’s problem is with democracy.

Obama's BFF Erdoğan’s problem is with democracy.(HD).By SEMİH İDİZ.The division of political powers between the legislature, executive and judiciary lies at the very core of democracy. It is this system under which the politically and ideologically motivated ambitions of politicians are checked. It is also this system that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is increasingly annoyed about, even as he claims to be bringing “advanced democracy” to this country.
Clearly his notion of plain democracy, let alone an advanced one, differs radically from the developed world’s definition of this system of government. One cannot help but be reminded that in his political prime, he likened democracy to a train that merely takes one to one’s destination. Erdoğan is seen to be acting more and more in line with this notion.
His remarks during a public speech in Konya earlier this week, when he complained about an obstructive “bureaucratic oligarchy,” are just the latest indications of a worrying inclination on his part.
“You know this thing they call the division of powers; this turns up in front of you as an obstruction. The legislature, executive and judiciary in his country must consider the benefit of the nation first and then the benefit of the state,” Erdoğan said.
Erdoğan is clearly living with a burning desire to have a country free of any notion of democratic checks and balances. It was also noteworthy that he should have trashed the notion of a division of political power at a time when his party is trying to amend the Constitution in order to turn Turkey’s parliamentary system into a presidential one.
As the Turkish saying goes, even the deaf sultan knows by now that the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) plan is to have Erdoğan elected president in 2014 and ensure that he enjoys enhanced powers while in office.
The system being tailored by the AKP is nothing like the American or French systems. Leading party figures have admitted that their aim is to have an executive that is unencumbered. Naturally enough, they sugar-coat their proposal by arguing that the citizenry will get better service as a result of a system that is not stymied by political, judicial or bureaucratic obstructions.
What the Erdoğan and the AKP basically want is a president that will have the sole privilege of deciding, without any obstacles from the judiciary or the legislature, what is best for the citizens of Turkey. One assumes, of course, that it will also be the office of the president, and not Parliament, which will hold the purse strings under the AKP’s proposed system.
In other words, Erdoğan wants the absolute powers that Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has given himself. But even Morsi is finding the going tough in a country where democracy has not flowered as of yet. One need not have too much imagination to consider the turmoil and instability that will be unleashed if Erdoğan tries to have his way in Turkey.
Erdoğan and his party must stop tampering with a democratic system that merely needs improvements, if their aim is not to turn Turkey into some kind of constitutional dictatorship, of course.
If, however, it is their “hidden agenda” – which in fact does not appear so hidden anymore – that is being promoted here, it is clear this will cause many headaches for a country that is already trying to cope with a host of ailments due to the shortcomings and deficiencies in its democracy. Hmmmm.......“Thank God Almighty,” said Mr. Erdogan in 1994, when he was the mayor of Istanbul. “I am a servant of Shariah.” Read the full story here.