In Egypt, Tension Between Mursi Regime And Military, And Calls To Restore Armed Forces To Power.(
Memri).
By: L. Lavi.
After months in which the Egyptian military kept a low profile and refrained from direct involvement in politics, its reentrance into political matters has recently become apparent, and some in the armed forces and the opposition are even raising the possibility that it could return to power in the country.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) ruled Egypt for 18 months, starting with the ouster of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011 and ending with President Muhammad Mursi's victory in the June 2012 election. During its rule, the SCAF was widely criticized publicly; mass protests were held and there were calls for its removal.
[1] In mid-August 2012, Mursi, to establish his status, removed the military's top echelon;[2] this move was not strongly opposed, and even led to speculation that there was an alliance between the new leadership of the military and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). It seemed that the military had returned to its previous role – defending national security, and distanced from political affairs – and thus it regained the public's trust and regained its image as the people's military.
Recently, there have been many reports in the Egyptian and Arab media of tension between the Mursi regime and MB and the military leadership. It should be noted that despite the reports, neither side has officially confirmed that there is any tension. The reports indicate disagreement between the sides on various matters in the running of the country – such as the investigation of the August 2012 Rafah terror attack, dealing with Hamas and the smuggling in tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, relations with Iran, and the military's involvement in the suppression of protests throughout the country.
Concurrently, fears arose in the military and in the Egyptian street regarding the intention of Mursi and the MB to replace the top echelon of the military with one loyal to the MB. These fears emerged following statements by MB officials that were interpreted as criticism of the current military leadership. Furthermore, recent rumors indicate that the regime intends to remove Defense Minister 'Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sisi. These rumors were interpreted in the Egyptian media as an MB trial balloon meant to test the public's reaction to such a move, which could bring the military under their control. Although regime circles denied any such intention, the rumors were enough to spark protests in support of the military and against it being turned into a tool of the MB.
Among regime opponents, especially in the Canal Cities – which since the January 2013 verdict in the matter of the massacre at Port Said stadium
[3] has become a center of ferment and rebellion against the regime – there were even calls to appoint Defense Minister 'Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sisi president in place of Mursi; Facebook campaigns also promoted this call.
As part of its struggle to topple the regime, the National Salvation Front, which is the umbrella organization of opposition forces, also called for military intervention in the event of chaos, but stressed that this referred strictly to security intervention, not political intervention, because it did not want the military restored to full power. Military officials also reiterated warnings that if they felt that Egypt was sliding into chaos, they would intervene in order to prevent it. However, many Egyptians, including regime opponents, reject the idea of bringing the military back into a political role as a response to the disappointment with the MB.
On April 18, 2013, in a statement to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised the Egyptian military for maintaining the security of Egypt and the revolution, and criticized the Mursi regime. This was viewed by some Egyptian analysts as indicative of a retreat in the U.S. administration's support of the MB regime in Egypt and its support of the military in its disagreement with Mursi.
This document will review the dispute between the military and the regime in Egypt, and will show examples of calls supporting and opposing a return to power by the military.
On April 7, 2013, the Egyptian daily
Al-Watan reported that another MB official had made a statement similar to that of Badi'. According to the report, MB Shura Council member Mouhi Al-Din Al-Zait, who is known to be the author of Badi''s weekly sermons, recited a poem that stated,
"What is the value of the military if it is led by a mouse?" and "Our military is dear, but it requires leadership."
[9] Responding to these remarks, a military source said that the MB itself were the mice, and that their past is drenched in the blood of innocent Egyptians – but that the military always protected the people and continues to do so.
He added that if the MB does not stop making such statements, it will see the other face of the military's fury.
[10] On April 9, 2013, Al-Zait said in a YouTube video that he wrote the song in 2002 and that it refers only to the political leadership at the time – meaning the Mubarak regime – and not the military leadership.
[11]
The fear of an MB takeover of the military increased when in February 2013 rumors began to spread that Mursi intended to remove Defense Minister 'Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sisi.
The Egyptian daily Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' quoted a senior military source who said that the military was furious over the rumors that senior military commanders, chiefly the defense minister, would be removed as part of a MB takeover of the military establishment, and that laying a hand on the military at this stage would be "suicide" for the current political regime.
The source added that public opinion would not stand for any harm to the military and its commanders, and would mobilize to fight it. There are, he said, a number of Facebook pages that are recruiting young people for a rebellion that will take place if military commanders are removed, and that if this scenario comes about, the rage of these young people will be uncontrollable.[12]
However, the military spokesman issued a statement on Facebook saying that the remarks attributed to this military source were not made by official military elements and therefore did not represent the military's position.
[13]
For his part, Mursi quickly denied the rumors and several times emphasized his confidence in Al-Sisi. The presidency's Facebook page also published a statement saying that the presidency expressed its confidence in Al-Sisi and its appreciation of the SCAF and of all officers and soldiers.
[14] Mursi also made similar statements directly to Al-Sisi in a February 21, 2013 meeting, held only a few days after the rumors began to surface.
[15] In a February 24 television interview, Mursi praised the military, the intelligence apparatuses, and Al-Sisi himself, saying that it was inconceivable that he would remove military commanders and denying that he has any plans for an MB takeover of the military.
[16] Also, in an Al-Jazeera interview on April 20, 2013, Mursi said that talk of tension between him and the military would have been true if they were two separate entitites, but that as president he himself is part of the military establishment.
[17]
Despite Mursi's denial of the rumors that he intended to remove Al-Sisi, some in the Egyptian press claimed that these rumors were an MB trial balloon in advance of just such a move. Egyptian journalist Assem Hanafi wrote: "I would wager my own arm that Al-Sisi will leave the armed forces... Clearly, the MB has been planning to take over the military for many years, just as it took over the Interior Ministry and parts of the justice system, and just as they strive to take over other institutions, chiefly the media... Al-Sisi should beware of the plot against him, sleep with one eye open... and count his fingers every time he shakes Dr. Mursi's hand..."
[18]
It should be noted that in March 2013, and along with many reports of tension between the sides, Al-Sisi accompanied Mursi on his visit to Pakistan.
The Egyptian press gave several explanations for this: the two went together to show that there was no tension between them, or Mursi took Al-Sisi with him because he feared that the latter would carry out a military coup if he did not.
[19]
In another recent manifestation of the military's objection to the ties with Iran promoted by the Mursi regime, following reports on the renewal of Iranian tourism to Egypt in late March 2013,
sources in the Egyptian military were cited as warning against Egypt joining Iran's regional "axis of evil."[37]
The Egyptian oppositionist daily
Al-Watan, citing knowledgeable sources, reported that in an April 11, 2013 meeting between Mursi and Al-Sisi,
Al-Sisi said that the military has no nothing to do with foreign and economic relations between Egypt and Iran, but insisted that there are no Egypt-Iran military ties, because Iran has major aspirations in Egypt that could harm the latter's relations with other countries.
[38]
Reports in the Egyptian media indicate that one of the main causes of tension between the military leadership and the Mursi regime in recent months is the investigation of the August 2012 terrorist attack in Rafah, in which 16 Egyptian soldiers were killed.
Since the attack, there are widespread claims in the media that Hamas was involved in carrying out the attack, so as to give Mursi a pretext to remove the Egyptian military leadership – which he did several days after the attack.
[23] In contrast, in late February 2013 it was reported that at a conference in the Al-Beheira Governorate MB official 'Ali 'Abd Al-Fattah said that the attack was organized by members of the SCAF. 'Abd Al-Fattah later denied making the statement, but the military spokesman said in response that such irresponsible statements angered the military establishment, and warned that "the military establishment's patience will not last long." He even demanded an official apology from the MB.
[24] In an attempt to calm the situation, the MB party issued a statement praising the military and promising to investigate the remarks attributed to 'Abd Al-Fattah.
[25]
In recent weeks, tensions between the military and Mursi regime escalated even further, following new reports in the Egyptian press that the investigation of the attack showed that those who planned and executed it were Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.
[26] The Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram Al-Arabi devoted two issues to listing the names of the 11 members of Hamas's 'Izz Al-Din Al-Qassam Brigades whom it claimed are behind the attack.
[27]
According to several reports, the military was furious that the authorities have yet to publish the results of the investigation;
[28] the delay in the investigation of the attack is sparking fears that the MB is covering for Hamas.
[29] For its part, the military leadership stressed that despite the delays, the truth would eventually come out, and that it will insist that those responsible be punished. In a March 14, 2013 meeting with officers,
Defense Minister Al-Sisi said: "We will never forget the Egyptian soldiers who were killed in Rafah," adding, "The betrayal will inevitably come to light, and the armed forces will take vengeance on their murderers."
[30]
In mid-March 2013, a Hamas delegation headed by Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mash'al arrived in Egypt, apparently in an attempt to calm fears in the Egyptian military regarding Hamas's involvement in the Rafah attack.
The Egyptian oppositionist daily Al-Watan reported that the military leadership rejected Hamas's request for a meeting – a request that was delivered via Mursi himself. It was also reported that the military told Mursi that the support for Hamas from him and from the MB has fueled Hamas's aspirations to dispatch terrorist elements to the Sinai and to use the region as a base of operations for their fight against Israel.[31]
Military, Regime Clash On Egypt-Gaza Tunnels
Another cause of the tension in recent months between the military and the MB regime are the tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.
According to many reports, while the military launched operations against the tunnels, including flooding them with sewage and demolishing them,[32] the Mursi regime has preferred to delay any such moves for now.[33] Citing a senior military source, the
Al-Watan daily reported that the military told the presidency that it objects to the MB's attempt to force its guardianship over the military's Sinai policy, especially regarding tunnels to the Gaza Strip.
According to the source, the military has evidence that MB General Guide Muhammad Badi' and his deputy Khairat Al-Shater promised the Hamas leadership that they would intervene with Mursi to stop operations against and destruction of the tunnels in the Sinai, but that the military insists on continuing them.[34]
Is The U.S. Taking Sides In The Disagreement Between The Regime And Military?
On April 18, 2013, in comments to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised the Egyptian military's role in preserving the security of Egypt and the revolution, and criticized the Mursi regime. He said: "
But for the army, you probably would have had civil war in Egypt. You would have had massive bloodshed. The army not only kept the peace, but it did what it said it would do. It created the capacity to have an election, had an election, and gave up power. Turned it over to the people who won the election." He said further: "
The relationship we have in the junior officer level and on the way up within the army is terrific…The army is also helping us enforce security in the Sinai… [and] enforce the Gaza peace [meaning the ceasefire declared after Operation Pillar of Defense]… On balance, I believe we are getting a return on [our] investment [in the Egyptian military] that is not inconsequential." About the Muslim Brotherhood, he said: "The [Muslim] Brotherhood won [the election]. The Brotherhood that had organized for 80 years and that was waiting in the wings, that didn't have much to do with the bringing of the revolution…" In addition, he said: "
We have been very clear with the Brotherhood. [We have] had very direct conversations with President Mursi and others about the need for inclusivity [and] the need for recognition of the opposition… I would express here today concerns about the direction [in which] they appear to be leaning, which is not… that inclusive…"
[70]
Several Egyptian analysts saw these statements as attesting to a downgrade of the U.S. administration's support for the MB regime in Egypt and its bias towards the military. Hussein
Haridi, former aide to the foreign minister, estimated that Washington regrets its previous calculations and its support of political Islam.
[71]
In an article in the London daily
Al-Quds Al-Arabi, Egyptian writer Yahya Mustafa Kamel wrote that he is not surprised at the esteem Kerry showed for the role of the military during the revolution,
but that he is surprised by Kerry's "implied recognition" of Egypt's "two regimes": the civilian regime elected by the citizens, which disappointed the hopes of the U.S. administration, and a military regime that is linked "organically" with the U.S., on which it can rely.
Kamel went on to muse: "In light of Kerry's statements (which almost constitute a green light)... should we expect a military announcement... of a coup by 'a gang of esteemed officers'?"[72]
Kerry's statements embarrassed MB officials and associates. 'Issam Al-'Aryan, deputy head of the MB party, said that the statements reflected a misreading of the situation in Egypt.
[73] Former presidential candidate 'Abdallah Al-Ash'al, who is close to the MB, assessed that Kerry said what he said because the U.S. fears that following Mursi's visit to Russia, he will choose Russia over the U.S. as a strategic ally. Al-Ash'al added that the U.S. could be inciting the military against the Mursi regime, which is not submitting to its dictates.[74].Read the full story
here.
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